First as a disclaimer I wanted to state that I am not a long-term forecaster. Never had been, but I wanted to make a public comment about it.

I have been watching the fall/winter outlook put out by CPC over the past couple of months wondering what they think our fall and winter might be like.

It was interesting that last year they forecasted a warm dry winter for us and it was one of the wettests and coldest in years. Reason being is that they relied upon averages associated with LA NINA's.

Now I know this year the La Nina is not as strong, but it appears last year was an fluke.

Well this year it appears that CPC sees that most of the country will be having above normal tempatures. Arizona in particular will have a warm dry fall / winter.

I am do not feel the same...

Here is my DISCLAIMER (I am not a long-term forecaster so please take this as a guess).

I have been closely watching the SST's over the world as of late. I feel that SST's have a greater impact on how the fall/winter weather will pan out than what we imagine. More than just La Nina or El Nino.

On the map below you see the very warm / above normal SST anomilies off the coast of China, Japan, and Russia. As we all know cold air is drawn to warm air. I think this is going to be a boiling point of very strong storm systems during the fall and winter months - especially, as colder air from Russia hits that warmer water.

This in turn will cause a strong ridge over the centeral pacific and cause the air flow over the US to be more out of the NNW from the colder regions of the Artics and Canada. It may not be a severe artic outbreak, but I do not think much of the US will be above normal this year.

It depends on where that High builds in the pacific that will determine our fate in Arizona. It could be very cold and wet or cool and dry. But I do not think we will be seeing the above normal temperatures that CPC is forecasting.

Ok so what are your thoughts?

Here is your weasel statement. Forecast cancel.

So I take it M7 you think my forecast is a wash?

It's a perfect National Intelligence Estimate. You ought to work for a bank.

Thanks for the interesting thoughts.

Last winter, the WX in the western CONUS was dominated by an outrageously strong and persistent jetstream out of the PNW. Where that sets up this year will be the key for AZ and elsewhere. Your projection is that the jet will be more towards the west coast and out of a more northerly direction than last winter.

We'll see!

The outlooks from the CPC are worthless. The Farmer's Almanac seems to be about as accurate.

Don't bet against the long-term trend of a warm and dry southwest. Right now, it seems that the west is going to experience an extended period of mild, late summer WX before real winter sets in...At least for Sept-Oct-Nov. With precip at or even above the norm.

This is based on my observation that the native grasses here are very late blooming and producing seed this fall. LOL

With the monsoon over according to Nature and about to end according to Man, warmer than average temperatures this time of year usually means dry.

Steve

Looking at the Big Bluestem grass, I think it'll be another 3 weeks to a month before a killing frost occurs here.

Of course, that means that the grass knows more than the CPC...

Ultimately I have to concur with WMPRO - it's a guesstimate.
Look at the previous 10 years and what CPC and NWS postulated -
most of the time they were off...by alot. During dry-progged winters
we got slammed. Last year it snowed. The wet-progged years
were a potato chip feast in Phoenix. Really - one can make their
own guesses and be right at least 50% of the time.

Remember ARIZWX? He used to see funnel clouds in every storm..
and in his sandwich bread. Same analogy. One sees what one wants,
then writes the prog to the bias. Same as the NIE. It's a slam dunk.