9:00 pm PDT, 07 Sep - TX Cyclone Brewing

I always feel vaguely embarrassed starting these threads-- for fear that I'm being premature and the storm will bust, leaving behind an aborted chase thread as embarrassing evidence of pathetic tropical weenieism. (See Fay-- grrrrr.)

Oh, well-- can't seem to help myself ()-- so here goes:

The newest chase subject for this action-packed year is Ike-- a major hurricane that raked the Bahamas and just made landfall on the N coast of Cuba. All of the model guidance points to a general WNW motion to landfall somewhere in the W Gulf in around six days. The model spread is fairly wide, although one can say with some degree of confidence that it should come ashore somewhere between Corpus Christi, TX, and C LA-- with the Upper TX Coast perhaps being the main target currently.

The big question right now: how much is Cuba going to mess up the cyclone's inner core? If it follows the official forecast, it'll get pretty disrupted-- however, as of right now, the cyclone's still on a due-W heading which, if it continues for another 12 hours or so with no latitude gains, would bring the center back out over water (in the Caribbean) earlier than expected.

Strat747 (Scott) and I have been having some preliminary discussions Re: our chase strategy for this one-- and I've been toying with the idea of hotel reservations in Baytown, TX; Port Arthur, TX; and Lake Charles, LA. (I may be shifting my sights further S soon, depending on how guidance evolves.)

Interesting-- and I'm sure very frustrating-- week ahead.

Click to view attachment

Click to view attachment

Hey, at least you might get the favorite WNW moving cyclone at landfall

You're gonna be tracking this for a long, long time. Good luck.

Hopefully I'll get to meet you this time Josh. "If" this as big a risk as it looks to be, it maybe a chase you'll never forget.

Hope this one works out for you.

BTW, your inbox is full.

I say Texas.

Yup, I was thinking that. Assuming this survives its passage across Cuba in one piece, I think this might not suffer the same lame fate as N-moving Gulf cyclones.


Yeah, I've promised myself that I'm nopt going to obsess about every wobble for the next few days. I'll go nuts if I do-- and, also, I just have too much to do this week.


Wow-- that gave me tingles reading that.


Sorry-- I have to clean it out a bit.


Agreed-- although I notice some of the models have shifted a bit to the right overnight, suggesting a threat to C LA-- which I would hate. Could you imagine chasing two unraveling Cat 2s in the LA swamps within a two-week period??

The 5 am EDT advisory indicates the cyclone continues blasting due-W at a good clip across Cuba. If it continues this motion for another five or six ours, it'll actually emerge into the Caribbean-- thus greatly helping to preserve its intensity.

The 5 am EDT forecast suggests landfall near the TX/LA border around Saturday morning with winds of 100 kt (Cat 3). I'm sure that's a low-confidence forecast-- but it gives a basic idea of where their heads are at with this.

I might call that hotel in Lake Charles and make a resevation in the morning.

Click to view attachment

Morning all....

Like what I see, but if I could only nudge the forecast a touch more to the west.... oh let's say <COUGH> just north of Corpus <COUGH>, I wouldn't complain one bit!

Just goto Scott's house and wait. Seems to carry the highest odds right now!

Maybe just across the bridge would be better -



Surfside and Holly Beach are almost like mirror images of each other.


You off this weekend?

Clean out your effin inbox

So you expece the hurricane to come right to your doorstep, at your convenience? Jeez....


Yeah, it does seem like he's in the bull's eye...

8:45 am PDT, 08 Sep - Back over water & looking good.

The interesting development this morning is that the cyclone has blasted straight W, right across Cuba, and is now emerging into the Caribbean with its structure largely intact and winds still at a healthy 85 kt! It looks pretty good on the visible imagery. Even if it turns WNW right now, it will likely stay over water much of today before brushing W Cuba tomorrow.

The latest NHC forecast still takes the cyclone ashore as a major hurricane near the TX/LA border Saturday morning. I'd say the likelihood of a severe hurricane at landfall is increased by the storm's quick and relatively painless passage across Cuba overnight.

Getting interesting. Time to make hotel reservations.

Click to view attachment

Click to view attachment

Yikes! Don't want that to happen... we just booked Thanksgiving week down there!

I just might be able to join you guys this weekend... we shall see!

Hmm... this forecast looks very familiar, both in terms of track and intensity.

Now where could I have possibly seen it before?

...

Wow-- very nice! It seems to be going exactly according to your track-- S of Cuba, etc. Berry nice, Booberry!

One out of three ain't bad.

You should make reservations in Mexico, Brownsville, CC, and Houston. Just in case.

Like I said in Ike's thread...there's a high probability I will chase it if it goes to any of those locations...I can take Friday off (workload is rather light). Sooooo, if there's still allotment in your chase team Josh, make a space for a foreigner

Always fun when you post a model image of a 928 system over your house -

It would be cool to go chasing with you sometime Josh.

Josh,

If the chase tour is not booked up, I may like to join you guys for the chase. I have been watching my high-res inhouse WRF and HWRF simulations and am very impressed with the potential strengthening over the Gulf.

He just likes to tease me.

Does two-thumbs up mean the pressure is to high or to low?

Re: the idea of a chase tour, I would be the worst tour guide imaginable! Ask Scott: my luggage alone takes up most of the back seat and the trunk, so anyone coming along would need to be tied to the roof!

In all seriousness, I notice a lot of folks are interested in chasing Ike! Scott and I have both gotten lots of PMs and eMails.

For tropical cyclones, I've always felt two is the magic number for a good chase. (I know it's different for tornadoes and snow-- I notice folks seem to chase those phenomena in big groups.) With hurricanes, a big challenge-- especially when a major one threatens a populated area-- is staying out of the way of local officials. This is a biggie. As one veteran chaser put it recently, you want to stay in "stealth mode" and not attract attention. It’s like spying-- and you get better access to cool locations when there's just two of you. Given this, our advice is to chase in pairs, keep a low profile, and avoid groups.

Good luck to everyone who decides to chase Ike!

The above aside, thanks very much for your nice note. It's always an honor when a red tagger takes an interest-- makes me feel more legit!

Umm... yes...

I like the early 18z spread... DON'T CHANGE!!!!!!!!!!

Seriously-- it's ideal for you, isn't it? I'm really liking that LA seems to be falling out of play-- thank God.

Ideal for me would be Corpus/Victoria, Texas... which is very much in play. If that's the case, I can stay home and I'll have decent odds of being in the hurricane force wind field.

So yes, I'm very happy with the 18z runs now.

I'll wait and expand on this as it's still far to soon to start talking about evacs and such, and in a few days we could be looking at a tropical storm into the Florida panhandle.

But given that there does seem to be quite a bit of interest in chasing - I can tell you that Texas isn't going to be that easy from a chase perspective if Ike does threaten to be a major upon landfall anywhere near the upper Texas coast.

Rita created a few changes...

If this pans out, I may not have to leave my apartment for the chase. *gulp*

I think in that case you are the chasee, not the chaser...

In Soviet Russia, Ike chase you.

Fairly decent shift and would expect a track adustment at 5.

Yup, it looks like it's going to broadside C TX-- like, a Matagorda Bay deal.

Windshield wiper effect, seriously.

Gee...I am *shocked* to see this trend:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/sa...atatcfzoom.html

Wow, this storm is really starting to gain some size

I might be up for this one if landfall is between CRP and the LA/TX border. The timing actually could not be better, with a projected Saturday morning landfall. Of course, the very fact that landfall is expected there from 5 days out is a discouraging sign, to me.

I just made a bunch of hotel reservations-- from Corpus up through to Lake Jackson.

Running off to a client meeting-- more later!

Yikes - it looks like the chances are increasing that Ike might be headed my direction (CC/Baffin Bay) now. If I can assist any chasers with the Baffin bay area, let me know. Since I have little ones, and neighboring yards full of crappy junk trees, I will probably not ride it out here at the house. My evac point for a big storm is just 70 min away, so I won't leave until I'm sure we will have something more than TS force winds here in Kingsville.

According to the GFS you should probably make a reservation in Brownsville also

Agreed... and I wouldn't COMPLETELY rule out a Mexico chase just yet.

Scott. Issue close to being delt with "locally". PM/EM me later tonight.

Wow the local news in SA didnt wait long to hype Ike. Steve Browne on KSAT mentioned the possibility of 100 mph winds in SA.

WTF?! No way on earth SAT sees those kind of winds. And I thought the Houston TV folks were bad.....

Not even hurricane winds, and that's with the center passing over San Antonio...