With 2/3 of the summer complete, I wanted to see how the original 1999 V. 2000 battle has been faring.

Here is the 500mb height map for Jun 1 to Jul 28 courtesy CDC with the matching 1999 and 2000 patterns just below it.

To me it looks like 2000 is still the better fit, but that heights are slightly higher on the immediate East Coast (surprise, surprise).

Jeff, you'll be happy to see that I made sure the scales all matched!



500mb Ht anomaly comparisons coming next.

I thought you were going to compare hurricane seasons

2000 is by no means a perfect fit. But compared to 1999, I still believe it is a better fit.

You can see similarities with below normal G.Lakes heights, warmer heights on the W.Coast.

Missing is the massive Eastern ridging signature that brought 100-degree readings to the East Coast in July.

Just using the H5 of those two, yeah, 2000 looks much better. Good job Matt

Yep, certainly does look like it...been a very cool summer. Almost identical to this year.

Why only show two years? Why not show all three like I did?



I readily admit the eastern Midwest and East Coast have not fared as 2000ish yet, but the jet stream patterns have definitely been a closer fit to that case, which gives me some solace regarding the balance of summer evolution. Since neither 1999 or 2000 were all that hot in August, I think the summer anomalies will continue to trend closer to 2000 and away from 1999. We'll see...

Aug 2000:

Click to view attachment

Aug 1999:

Click to view attachment


Interesting that if I had to pick one or the other going forward, I would pick Aug 1999

I don't think I'm gonna like this month (August) down here much at all.

Ha yeah we're screwed either way.

This weekend is looking BRUTAL for the state... ugh.

We should easily do 100º... and I wouldn't be surprised at a 110º in Dallas! Barf...

yeah, have fun with that...

enjoy! I will be looking forward to the 2nd half of next week into the 11-15 day up my way

Maybe, you're both right. One year was too hot in the East and the other too cool. If you put them (2000 and 1999) together, you get a pretty nice match of the season to date, nothing perfect, but you get the idea...

2008
Click to view attachment
2000 and 1999
Click to view attachment

If we follow suit into August using the composite idea...

2000 and 1999
Click to view attachment

Not bad in the East...disgusting in Texas...

Per request... here's the June 1st to July 31st look, versus the 10YR Normals.

Click to view attachment

Can you guys throw up an Aug 2003 map?

Here's your barfed map:

Thanks. One last request can you chalk up a 1990 ditty.

Thanks

At your service:



PS: Were you the one that was aiming for 90F in LGA this Sunday? Local NWS is 84F currently.

THANKS FOR the maps

I was, but not just for LGA. PHL - NYC. So much for that. I may have to get a plane to park close to the sensors.

Looking at August 500 mb height anomalies and this latest GFS model (cold heights over New England), perhaps combining the two years IS the way to go:

FWIW, this summer has been much more 2000ish here along the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains.

My 2007 analog has worked well so far

One word: YUCK

Its been even cooler here this summer than it was to this point in 2000. The frequency of precipitation events this year has also been reminiscent of that season. 1999 was much drier than either 2000 or 2008 for this area.

We've been cooler than what most would think, and the cooler pattern that you and I have talked about before, in regards to us up here and DCA , has continued. The June/July NWS numbers for Martinsburg were +.8, and -2.3. So our summer is running below normal.

Gotta save 1999 analog for 2010 anyway.

Matt,

It is interesting how the pattern looks closer to 2000, but temp departures are closer to 1999, that early heat wave in June really dried us locally, maybe made it easier for temps to rise? More of the departure from normal locally was with daytime max(es) vs nighttime mins.

Nice MDA maps.

That is more of an exception as the departure maps clearly show...

Don't worry I know the overall pattern has been warm. I was only pointing out something that's been going on around here for quite some time now in regards to our continual anomaly difference with DCA. It's been about two degrees colder for quite some time now on average.

In 1999 NYC had a 30 day period averaging 81.9 degrees...Second highest to 1980's 82.5...2000's warmest 30 day period tied for the coolest ever at 72.7...1999 had 27 days 90 or better while 2000 had 6...The average temperature for July 2000 was 72.3...Coolest since 1914...1999's average was 81.4...Warmest ever recorded....The summer of 1999 was dry until Uncle Floyd in September while 2000 was a wet Summer...Can't get any different with the actual weather...This year is closer to 1999 only because 2000 was so cool....

Agreed. If you look at the NY Metro this summer was normal to dry, and 2000 was extremely rainy as well as cool. Of course, if you go 150 miles to NYC's north it was rather rainy, though not nearly as cool as 2000. Hopefully, this winter turns out mild (at least from February 1-10) since my son has a Bar Mitzvah on February 7.