One of the major characteristics of any monsoon is what is called a "monsoon break". A monsoon break is a period during the monsoon where the monsoon pattern breaks down and we enter a non monsoon flow pattern. In Asia, breaks usually cause the flow to change from SW to easterly Trades while here in Arizona, our normal E-SE monsoon flow will become SW-W resulting in a cessation of thunderstorm activity and a pronounced drying out of the air. Such breaks typically last 3-7 days (though they can last longer) and occur about 2-3 times during the active part of the monsoon season. Such a break is beginning now and is expected to last through the remainder of the month. The Upper High has weakened and shifted east and south while a strong trough coming into the Pacific NW has picked up a ULL off Baja (itself actually a product of the monsoon) bringing westerly flow to Arizona while at the same time allowing the remnants of Dolly to move N-NE into the Plains. This break will last until the trough has moved far enough inalnd and Dolly has entered the weserlies and is moving out with both allowing the ridge to rebound and bring the moisture flow back in. Those interested in chasing AZ storms should watch developments in Sonora closely as the end of a break is usually announced by a line or complex of very intense and severe stormsmoving out of Sonora into Cochise and from there through most of Arizona. Some of the most intense severe weather events have occurred with this type of scenario. This coming weekend could be the time to watch or perhaps early next week. In the meantime, hotter temperatures and lower dewpoints are on tap for AZ.

Steve

That's right Steveo - we had a mini-break a couple weeks ago for about a week.
Here comes another. Not worried though since the monsoon could be active through
the end of September and I've seen big rains during Sept. The plants are all looking nice
and green though. The desert sprang into a lush tropiscape. Saw two taranchulas tonight
on the roads...this is the time of year all the critters come out to hop and play. Haven't
seen too many coyotes lately so they must be all happy and hunkered down in their dens
after feasting on every conceivable plant and animal that's out now. The bunnies have
exploded (so to speak). And since I have only seen one measly snake this year, must
be the owls and other predators which have kept the populations down or out of sight.

When the soonage resumes next weekend, we could do with another Wall of Doom or
severe outbreak. This is our 'April-May'...

Already drying out and heating up - back into the 100s this week
until the return of Soonage this weekend if the High moves back to 4C.

Break time? Wish to hell it would have STARTED up here! Read my thread, July was a BAD month!

Quit yer complaining!!

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From NWS Denver:


July 2008 Continues To Add To One Of Denver's Driest Years

So far in 2008, again through July 26th, only 3.28 inches of moisture has been measured at the Denver International Airport. This is a deficit of 6.67 inches. That is not to say that 2008 will become the driest year in Denver weather history, but to be behind by such a large margin is significant. One or two heavy thunderstorms or winter storms could easily move 2008 out of contention for the driest year. But the way things have transpired so far this year, the deficit only seems to widen. Time will tell on this matter.


-FB-

I beg yer parden Seems like it's bad all over the west with the exception of Southern Az, we un's up north are way down!

I don't believe there is going to be much precipitation for Denver or N Colorado for August, either. Sure, there could be a storm here or there that might push you out of the driest year category; but not enough to bring you anywhere near average for the month of August. As for N AZ, my research has found no correlation so far with any predictive parameters during summer precipitation. About the only thing I can say is that areas to your immediate SW and S, Midnight Rider, have been at least at normal for this time of year.

I agree, and thanks for your thoughts...I've lived on a farm near Berthoud for many years.

They're complaining in Alaska about the coldest summer on record, and we're having the hottenst, dryest summer on reord.

For every trough there is a ridge...For every ridge..

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/...ng-cold-summer/

From an Anchorage sews source:

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The coldest summer ever? You might be looking at it, weather folks say. Right now the so-called summer of ‘08 is on pace to produce the fewest days ever recorded in which the temperature in Anchorage managed to reach 65 degrees.
That unhappy record was set in 1970, when we only made it to the 65-degree mark, which many Alaskans consider a nice temperature, 16 days out of 365.This year, however — with the summer more than half over — there have been only seven 65-degree days so far. And that’s with just a month of potential “balmy” days remaining and the forecast looking gloomy.
National Weather Service meteorologist Sam Albanese, a storm warning coordinator for Alaska, says the outlook is for Anchorage to remain cool and cloudy through the rest of July.
“There’s no real warm feature moving in,” Albanese said. “And that’s just been the pattern we’ve been stuck in for a couple weeks now.”
In the Matanuska Valley on Wednesday snow dusted the Chugach. On the Kenai Peninsula, rain was raising Six-Mile River to flood levels and rafting trips had to be canceled.

So if the cold and drizzle are going to continue anyway, why not shoot for a record? The mark is well within reach, Albanese said:
“It’s probably going to go down as the summer with the least number of 65-degree days.”

MEASURING THE MISERY

In terms of “coldest summer ever,” however, a better measure might be the number of days Anchorage fails to even reach 60. There too, 2008 is a contender, having so far notched only 35 such days — far below the summer-long average of 88.

Unless we get 10 more days of 60-degree or warmer temperatures, we’re going to break the dismal 1971 record of only 46 such days, a possibility too awful to contemplate.

Still, according to a series of charts cobbled together Tuesday evening by a night-shift meteorologist in the weather service’s Anchorage office, the current summer clearly has broken company with the record-setting warmth of recent years. Consider:

• 70-degree days. So far this summer there have been two. Usually there are 15. Last year there were 21. In 2004 there were 49.

• 75-degree days. So far this summer there’ve been zero. Usually there are four. It may be hard to remember, but last year there were 21. In 2004 there were 23.

So are all bets off on global warming? Hardly, scientists say. Climate change is a function of long-term trends, not single summers or individual hurricanes.

Last year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it’s “unequivocal” the world is warming, considering how 11 of the warmest years on record have occurred in the past 13 years.
So what’s going on in Alaska, which also posted a fairly frigid winter?

LA NINA

Federal meteorologists trace a lot of the cool weather to ocean temperatures in the South Pacific. When the seas off the coast of Peru are 2 to 4 degrees cooler than normal, a La Nina weather pattern develops, which brings cooler-than- normal weather to Alaska.

For most of the past year, La Nina (the opposite of El Nino, in which warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures occur off Peru) has prevailed. But that’s now beginning to change.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Web site, water temperatures in the eastern South Pacific began to warm this summer — and the weather should eventually follow.
The current three-month outlook posted by the national Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md., calls for below-normal temperatures for the south coast of Alaska from August through October — turning to above-normal temperatures from October through December.

Break may last one or two more days at most. The High is moving back into position
in the 4C (Four Corners) setting up the monsoon flow once again. Cities may not get
rain til Monday but outflows have already hit southeastern Ariz and clouds were seen in
the skies locally at dusk. Besides, these 105F+ days are a bit warm again.

Just in time for my return trip to Tucson. Knowing my luck, I will end up getting a face full of dust on I-10 or I-25.

Hope your stay went well.

OK, 102.5 degrees on the porch this afternoon at 4 PM.

Good grief. This is CO, not AZ.

Will you zonies *please* keep yer hot air to yourself?

Sorry. I've got to make this area seem a little bit like home, you know.

Actually, by next week it's likely to be mud in your face than dust as the rain has already come back tonight.

Steve