I think Canada has had one of their coldest starts to winter in awhile.

Canada is a pretty big place. You should be more specific. Here I'd say the first week of winter, temperature wise, is comparable to 2002-2003. Which is a great sign but nothing monumental by any stretch.

I'm talking overall. It seems like the past couple of years, it was hard to find any kind of below normal temps in Canada this time of year that last any length of time. Canada just kept getting filled with mild, pacific air. This Fall and early winter so far, have been complete opposite of that. It's nice to look at the Canadian SD forecast map and not see all + departures on there like we have seen in recent years. My whole point is that the low arctic sea ice is just one very small portion of the whole puzzle to seasonal and climate forecasting. If you read these boards late last summer you would have thought with the low sea ice we would all be wearing shorts right now.

The artic raged and the Anartic and Southern Hemisphere had one of the coldest winters on record.

Actually, December 2002 was warmer than normal for Toronto, roughly a degree or two (celsius) above average. It started out cold in the first week, warmed up a bit in the second week, got colder for a few days in the middle of the month (16th and 17th) but warmed up above normal and stayed that way for the rest of the month. Despite the warmth, Toronto managed to get a white Christmas as 3" fell on the 25th but that snowfall melted a few days later as temps on Dec 31st were in the mid 40s. It wasn't until the start of January where winter decided to hang in with an extended stay.

As for this month, Don's new thread is not good news. Toronto is running below normal temp wise so far but will the mild days in the 2nd half of the month overcome the cold start and make this month above normal or just normal? However, the good news is that cold air is at our doorstep. If storms can continue to track south of the lower lakes and encounter the cold air to the north, maybe Toronto can get more snow events for the rest of the month.

You're correct Toronto15 about December 2002 being above normal. Since this thread was about the start of winter, I was merely pointing out that this first week of December this year and the first week of December 2002 are analagous temperature wise. Sorry if I didn't make that clear.

The question is, how is Siberia and Northern Russian doing. If they are about as warm as we were last year at this time, then its obvious whats going on. It would be encouraging to see the entire Northern Hemisphere be at least average with some locations colder than normal, otherwise things will flip soon and we'll be under the blowtorch.

Sometimes certain parts of a Hemisphere remain above normal for a season and others remain below normal. If Siberia and N Russia are AN, and I have not checked, that could also represent the sesonal pattern. Anyway, isn't it fairly rare for an entire hemisphere to be generally normal, with some areas below? I don't know the answer but it would seem to make sense they way the temps wax and wane than normal for a large area over an extended period of time, let alone an entire hemisphere, is quite rare.

The Antarctic was above normal and the southern hemisphere as a whole was above normal (surface measurements) or about normal (satellite measurements). The Antarctic sea ice, which was above normal, is driven by different processes.

Sooo... is Siberia blowtorching?

November 2007

Whew. Glad we are on this side of the Hemisphere!! (so far)

Perhaps if we see a shift in the pattern, the cold may go over there though.

That is exactly what is likely to happen, and probably sooner rather than later. Even before Don, et. al., started calling for it, I had concerns that Xmas would be a warm one. Now, it almost looks like a done deal... the only question is how warm. For my money, if is going to be too warm to snow or to even maintain any existing snowcover, give me shirtsleeve weather.

I had elsewhere that it was a very cold winter season that half the world.

Just because it gets warm in the eastern half of the US, it doesn't mean that the cold moves from Canada to Siberia.

It's China, lol.

The other big question is, how long does this warmth last for?

There were definitely cold periods with some record cold temps, especially in western South America. But the hemisphere overall wasn't actually that cold.

Shouldn't be too surprising. La Ninas, in general, are pretty good for Canada...especially from Quebec west.

I know. This also gets me thinking about how Canada in general could be in for more cold than we have seen in recent winters if we really do/have shifted back to more of a predominate -PDO. This would be wonderful news for all snow/cold lovers in the US.
I see Siberia had a warm November. What is typical over there during a La Nina winter?

just because there is warmth in siberia and on the other side of the world doesn't mean it is coming here. why do you say it is LIKELY to happen? how can you say chrstmas is going to be warm already when not one met is seeing this? last year siberia had mad cold air and it spilled here eventually but that was halfway through january. How can you be sure when it will happen and if it will at all?