[Matt Rogers]

With next week's potential record cold on the horizon for the Midwest, East, and South during the climatological peak of the winter, there is a decent chance that a day or two could rank as the coldest days of the decade. Here is the current top ten list.

This list is calculated by creating a population-weighted national (contiguous U.S.) heating degree day number. As you might have guessed, Jan 2003 still has the Gold with its 1/23 date as the coldest day of this decade. I posted the anomaly map from that date below. But shockingly, last month's (12/22) big cold day is number two since 2000. The national coverage of cold that day was impressive. I find it interesting that the top five are dominated by two years (2008 and 2003).

My guess is that this cold outbreak has a strong chance of making this list and even being in the top notches due to the time of year this occurs.





If I get time before the week ends, I'll try to do the entire dataset back to 1950 and see what the rankings look like.

Matt

[sarwx2.0]

How did this get ignored?!

I think we will definitely top the 22nd from last month sometime next week. Might even top that 23rd of January day! :o

[sarwx2.0]

GFS says next Friday is close...

12z GFS Surface Temp Anomalies...
 sfcta_f228_bg_US.png (28.62K)
Number of downloads: 6


Euro says next Thursday has a real shot...

12z Surface Temp Anomalies...
 sfcta_f204_bg_US.png (33.79K)
Number of downloads: 7


** Thank You WSI for your beautiful maps! ** :wub:

[Ian]

sarwx2.0, on Jan 7 2009, 05:10 PM, said:

Might even top that 23rd of January day! :o

does that mean we can use 02/03 as an analog for this winter?? :arrowhead:

[turtlehurricane]

Interesting, thanks. We're looking forward to that potential Arctic outbreak down here in Florida.

[TxChris]

If the ECMWF verifies, that would put DFW at an excellent chance of dipping below 10°F for lows. The last time we did was February of 1996 when we hit 8°F. If we do this, this would make the coming cold the coldest airmass in about 12 years for our area. I would classify this as severe cold!

[Hoosier]

This looks like it could be pretty brutal...coming at the coldest time of year and there'll be more snow layed down in advance. I was looking at GFS temps for next week for the Midwest and it would be pretty bad factoring in additional snowcover. Of course that is the GFS with its well-documented cold bias but there is support for it...just exact timing and magnitude remain to be seen.

[VAwxman]

I think a day next week, maybe Thursday, has a good shot of being coldest since at least Jan 1997 based on this method.

[StotaRattler]

mrwx72, on Jan 7 2009, 01:01 PM, said:

With next week's potential record cold on the horizon for the Midwest, East, and South during the climatological peak of the winter, there is a decent chance that a day or two could rank as the coldest days of the decade. Here is the current top ten list.

This list is calculated by creating a population-weighted national (contiguous U.S.) heating degree day number. As you might have guessed, Jan 2003 still has the Gold with its 1/23 date as the coldest day of this decade. I posted the anomaly map from that date below. But shockingly, last month's (12/22) big cold day is number two since 2000. The national coverage of cold that day was impressive. I find it interesting that the top five are dominated by two years (2008 and 2003).

My guess is that this cold outbreak has a strong chance of making this list and even being in the top notches due to the time of year this occurs.





If I get time before the week ends, I'll try to do the entire dataset back to 1950 and see what the rankings look like.

Matt

Record low for Syracuse on January 20th is -9F.

If a lot of records are broken on that date, it will probably be labeled as the inauguration arctic outbreak, or some other fancy term.

[morningstarrising]

StotaRattler, on Jan 7 2009, 05:57 PM, said:

Record low for Syracuse on January 20th is -9F.

If a lot of records are broken on that date, it will probably be labeled as the inauguration arctic outbreak, or some other fancy term.

I like it. :thumbsup: inauguration arctic outbreak: Obama's cold start.

[wxmx]

sarwx2.0, on Jan 7 2009, 04:16 PM, said:

GFS says next Friday is close...

12z GFS Surface Temp Anomalies...
Euro says next Thursday has a real shot...

12z Surface Temp Anomalies...
sfcta_f204_bg_US.png
** Thank You WSI for your beautiful maps! ** :wub:

Coldest in two decades here (18.5F in 1989) and coldest Jan day in 3 decades (22F in 1979) as portrayed by the Euro (nice CAD :P)... any overruning qpf here for that Euro run?

[Harry]

Hoosierwxdude, on Jan 7 2009, 05:41 PM, said:

This looks like it could be pretty brutal...coming at the coldest time of year and there'll be more snow layed down in advance. I was looking at GFS temps for next week for the Midwest and it would be pretty bad factoring in additional snowcover. Of course that is the GFS with its well-documented cold bias but there is support for it...just exact timing and magnitude remain to be seen.

Hopefully it is with wnw winds. That would kick up the LES and help to keep the temps up a little. In either case it does look brutal. IF it clears and get calm winds then i could see perhaps the coldest temp here sence i moved here which right now is -18 back in early Feb 2007. Record for here is -24 i think? I'll have to check. Lake usually keeps the temps in check during such outbreaks.

[msp]

MPX ominous in their wording for next week...

Quote

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES IN STORE WITH
SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW STAYING BELOW ZERO BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

And it's coinciding with what's typically the coldest point of the year... could be brutal up here Monday-Wednesday.

[CT Blizz]

But wait...didn't someone say record warm January was coming?

[coriolis30]

TxChris, on Jan 7 2009, 04:31 PM, said:

If the ECMWF verifies, that would put DFW at an excellent chance of dipping below 10°F for lows. The last time we did was February of 1996 when we hit 8°F. If we do this, this would make the coming cold the coldest airmass in about 12 years for our area. I would classify this as severe cold!

This is key to the PWHDD data...getting TX cold...IF DFW/IAH/SAT get in on the BIg Freeze ( gee, I wonder why my avatar has been that way SINCE NOV), then we will be in the top 3 of this list. TX is still questionable IMO , but the Euro trends today say game on.

[srainhoutx]

coriolis30, on Jan 7 2009, 07:15 PM, said:

This is key to the PWHDD data...getting TX cold...IF DFW/IAH/SAT get in on the BIg Freeze ( gee, I wonder why my avatar has been that way SINCE NOV), then we will be in the top 3 of this list. TX is still questionable IMO , but the Euro trends today say game on.

Agreed. Not 1989/1983 type cold, but "could" make a run at those. This little "nugget" from HGX tonight...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
824 PM CST WED JAN 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...

ALSO OF INTEREST IS THE REAL POSSIBILITY OF AN ARCTIC BLAST HEADED
OUR WAY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AS IMPRESSIVE UPPER RIDGING FROM
PACIFIC INTO NRN AK DEVELOPS...BOTH GFS/ECMWF PROG A 1050+ MB HIGH
DROPPING SOUTH INTO TX. STAY TUNED AND WHILE YOU ARE WAITING YOU
MAY WANT TO LOCATE THOSE RARELY USED LONG JOHNS JUST IN CASE.

[kevbo81]

lots of major snowstorms happened in the years listed as well...i couldn't help myself... :)

[wxw]

No, he said Brutal -- and if what's comin' ain't brutal, I don't know what is.....

CT Blizz, on Jan 7 2009, 08:06 PM, said:

But wait...didn't someone say record warm January was coming?

[sc2man13]

Tom Skilling mentioned in tonight's forecast that this may be some of the coldest air to hit my area since 1993.

[SnowAlbedo]

Dang it does not go above freezing for the MA north after like today on the 0Z run. LOL