[WEATHER53]

For DCA

Temps: Below Average
Snowfall: Above Average. 25" for DCA, over 30" for IAD.
Precip: Near Average

Monthly Temp Breakdown
DEC:-1.0
JAN:+1.0
FEB:-2.0
Overall:-0.67

Discussion:
December will begin mild but turn considerably colder between the 7th-10th and remain so for the rest of the month. Christmas Day will feature snow on the ground and high temps in the 30's. He sees Novenber as mild and dry.
January will have an ice storm mid month but this will be the only ice storm of the season for DC.
There will be a 4"+ snowstorm in late Jan and another 4"+, both DCA totals, in mid Feb.
There will be snow in March also

The ENSO will be neutral.
The analog years are 1966-67 and 1959-60.
There will be numerous exciting snow scenarios to follow.

This forecast is being issued prior to the equinox due to a scheduling conflict. This forecast is not a product of Verizon weather.


My take on this is as follows. Nice not to see +2 to +4 littered all over the landscape again! One note is that for the last two winters he called for 70+ temps in Dec, Jan and Feb and I think 4 or 5 out of those 6 months 70+ did occur. No such call this year. Some may think that two 4"+ call is nothing significant but he is a snow conservative type of forecaster and the 25" plus two 4"+ plus "numerous exciting snow scenarios to follow" are bold statements from a person who rarely makes bold statements like that. One of my happiest moments, and one of his best calls, was when he told me in Sept 2002 that it would be the coldest and snowiest winter since 95-96. His last plus snowfall call winter did not materialize. Christmas Day is, and has always been, essentially for fun and due to the extreme attention that day brings. He is aware that so far most forecasts are leaning mild-very mild for the mid atlantic area.

So there we have it. Other forecasts will follow.

[DixieBlizzard]

Good luck with the forecast!

[dendrite]

DixieBlizzard, on Sep 22 2008, 12:08 AM, said:

Good luck with the forecast!

Keith Allen is not Weather53.


It's always nice to see him going colder/snowier. Hopefully it pans out for everyone down there. I'll pin this for awhile as I know many are interested in his thoughts.

[A-L-E-X]

WEATHER53, on Sep 22 2008, 12:05 AM, said:

For DCA

Temps: Below Average
Snowfall: Above Average. 25" for DCA, over 30" for IAD.
Precip: Near Average

Monthly Temp Breakdown
DEC:-1.0
JAN:+1.0
FEB:-2.0
Overall:-0.67

Discussion:
December will begin mild but turn considerably colder between the 7th-10th and remain so for the rest of the month. Christmas Day will feature snow on the ground and high temps in the 30's. He sees Novenber as mild and dry.
January will have an ice storm mid month but this will be the only ice storm of the season for DC.
There will be a 4"+ snowstorm in late Jan and another 4"+, both DCA totals, in mid Feb.
There will be snow in March also

The ENSO will be neutral.
The analog years are 1966-67 and 1959-60.
There will be numerous exciting snow scenarios to follow.

This forecast is being issued prior to the equinox due to a scheduling conflict. This forecast is not a product of Verizon weather.


My take on this is as follows. Nice not to see +2 to +4 littered all over the landscape again! One note is that for the last two winters he called for 70+ temps in Dec, Jan and Feb and I think 4 or 5 out of those 6 months 70+ did occur. No such call this year. Some may think that two 4"+ call is nothing significant but he is a snow conservative type of forecaster and the 25" plus two 4"+ plus "numerous exciting snow scenarios to follow" are bold statements from a person who rarely makes bold statements like that. One of my happiest moments, and one of his best calls, was when he told me in Sept 2002 that it would be the coldest and snowiest winter since 95-96. His last plus snowfall call winter did not materialize. Christmas Day is, and has always been, essentially for fun and due to the extreme attention that day brings. He is aware that so far most forecasts are leaning mild-very mild for the mid atlantic area.

So there we have it. Other forecasts will follow.

Wow, expect this to become a 10 page thread by tomorrow!  Nice historical analogs he's listed there.  He forecasts for DC, but those winters were pretty momentous here.  Although 59-60 wasnt as good as 60-61, it had that blockbuster in March, as well as one of the coldest Marches on record.  1966-67, started out with a bang in December, slowed down in January (above normal temps that month) and winter really got down to business in February and March.  Long Island (Brookhaven) got 30 inches in EACH of those months!  Looking at the temp profiles youve given, it looks like 1966-67 is the primary analog?  I know he hasnt forecasted for March, but is it safe to assume negative temp anomalies and positive snowfall anomalies are forecast to continue through that month as well?

[uofmiami]

OKX records show NYC receiving 39.2" in 59-60 & 51.5" in 66-67. Not bad at all for snow up this way, but anything will be better than last winter really.

[A-L-E-X]

uofmiami, on Sep 22 2008, 12:19 AM, said:

OKX records show NYC receiving 39.2" in 59-60 & 51.5" in 66-67. Not bad at all for snow up this way, but anything will be better than last winter really.

Brookhaven, LI had 75" in 1966-67-- snowiest winter til 1995-96. March 1960 saw 18" of snow in a famous blizzard-- I think the Cape got around 2-3 feet?

[mitchnick]

hope he's right, sounds like my forecast (though let's not talk about my history of forecasts, OK)

[mitchnick]

oh yeah, if this is what he's forecasting for DCA/IAD, look out NE!

[ORH_wxman]

mitchnick, on Sep 22 2008, 12:26 AM, said:

oh yeah, if this is what he's forecasting for DCA/IAD, look out NE!

Should we be expecting 100" now???


:thumbsup:

[zwyts]

wow.....Go KA!!

This is the 1st year I have waited till after KA......I am confounded....Have been leaning warm, but this outlook is refreshing

In 2005-06 he went a bit too cold and snowy, but we did have a cold DEC and average temp FEB with the 8-14" storm on 2/12....only 14" at DCA that winter, but the snowiest of the 2003-2008 winters


I feel invigorated

[mitchnick]

zwyts, on Sep 22 2008, 12:33 AM, said:

wow.....Go KA!!

This is the 1st year I have waited till after KA......I am confounded....Have been leaning warm, but this outlook is refreshing

In 2005-06 he went a bit too cold and snowy, but we did have a cold DEC and average temp FEB with the 8-14" storm on 2/12....only 14" at DCA that winter, but the snowiest of the 2003-2008 winters
I feel invigorated

agree 100% Now I don't have to waste my time in AP!

[MerquryMan]

Might as well clear my schedule for 3 straight months. Im gonna be racking up the board time

[WEATHER53]

zwyts, on Sep 22 2008, 12:33 AM, said:

wow.....Go KA!!

This is the 1st year I have waited till after KA......I am confounded....Have been leaning warm, but this outlook is refreshing

In 2005-06 he went a bit too cold and snowy, but we did have a cold DEC and average temp FEB with the 8-14" storm on 2/12....only 14" at DCA that winter, but the snowiest of the 2003-2008 winters
I feel invigorated

You had a good thread last year referencing and critiquing his last 6/7 winter calls.

[zwyts]

WEATHER53, on Sep 22 2008, 12:41 AM, said:

You had a good thread last year referencing and critiquing his last 6/7 winter calls.

I'll look for it.....Keith!!

[HM]

Our thoughts are quite similar (for the most part) through January (a little too similar where in 05-06 they were NOT as similar). It is February that we disagree. Even though I do like the mid FEB winter storm idea, I feel the month is warmer than normal. Spring looks cold at this time....

[WEATHER53]

HM, on Sep 22 2008, 12:50 AM, said:

Our thoughts are quite similar (for the most part) through January (a little too similar where in 05-06 they were NOT as similar). It is February that we disagree. Even though I do like the mid FEB winter storm idea, I feel the month is warmer than normal. Spring looks cold at this time....

He thinks an early spring will not happen. It's hard to research and post documents everyone's work so I think I will zero in on his, your's, Chuck's and Raleighs and just review them at the end of each month. I know you all do wider areas but DCA is within those area, and all of you ususally put a specific value or range for DCA/DC area and if not your charts are pretty easy to come up with what the idea was for right around DC.

[HM]

WEATHER53, on Sep 21 2008, 11:53 PM, said:

He thinks an early spring will not happen. It's hard to research and post documents everyone's work so I think I will zero in on his, your's, Chuck's and Raleighs and just review them at the end of each month. I know you all do wider areas but DCA is within those area, and all of you ususally put a specific value or range for DCA/DC area and if not your charts are pretty easy to come up with what the idea was for right around DC.

The NOV-DEC thoughts are, currently, nearly identical right now but the mid winter details are more scattered between us. However, the spring idea I feel strongly on based on several factors (late season snowfall???!?). I will elaborate, as usual, in October.

Good luck to all (and you Howard) and let's hope for some good snow events!

[HKY_WX]

Ji will like this.

[turtlehurricane]

ORH_wxman, on Sep 22 2008, 12:28 AM, said:

Should we be expecting 100" now???
:thumbsup:

Hopefully it's a highly amplified winter and Miami gets a trace :snowman:

[A-L-E-X]

ORH_wxman, on Sep 22 2008, 12:28 AM, said:

Should we be expecting 100" now???


:thumbsup:

I think you get 100 inches about 1/3 winters, no?  At any rate, I hope you guys get 150 inches so I can get 50!  :thumbsup: