[MallowTheCloud]

If it is a dry slot, maybe that's what this thing needs... a kick of dry air right in its center to get it started. :arrowhead:
If nothing else, it seems to be enhancing convection to the east.

[wxmx]

Demeter, on Sep 11 2008, 12:22 PM, said:

It actually looks like it is the old core leaving the center? Or is that my imagination?

Microwave imagery overlays don't follow the exact path over the map...they move in lines and hard angles.

[Inudaw]

I will go with.. its not an eye. :-o

[janetjanet998]

pressure up extrap 949

172130 2547N 08843W 6969 02740 9515 +161 +110 173003 010 999 999 03
172200 2549N 08842W 6972 02730 9494 +181 +110 113019 023 999 999 03
172230 2550N 08842W 6965 02741 9491 +187 +110 118027 029 999 999 03
172300 2551N 08840W 6973 02733 9492 +187 +110 133036 040 999 999 03

[ursa99]

Close up. What is it?

Attached File(s)

•  ike.jpg (121.88K)
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[Justin]

HurricaneJosh, on Sep 11 2008, 12:23 PM, said:

I can't tell if that spot on the infrared imagery is an eye or a dry patch, either.

Its dry air, pretty evident on the loop. Oh well. One thing that could help the overall structure in the center and clear out that old center/inner eye wall completely perhaps. But it will take some time to recover from ingesting a bit of dry air. Wait and see sa'more. Who thinks recon may find a weaker storm?

[svrseason]

MUCH better wind structure this pass....I'll have to go back and look, but I did not notice more than 1 double wind max, if that. That was a MUCH MUCH better structure. Wow, quite a big improvement. I had counted 4 wind maximums earlier this morning. Very impressive improvement.

Edit: Yep, just went back and checked, NO double wind maximum on this pass.

[SACRUS]

Still issues or constraints from dry air - but Ike is huge

http://www.ssd.noaa....ex/loop-wv.html

[ADKwx]

Waves up to 30FT at buoy 42001. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=42001

[Demeter]

ursa99, on Sep 11 2008, 01:26 PM, said:

Close up. What is it?

Flame me if you feel it's needed, because I am too much of an amateur to add anything seriously worthwhile here, but....from my perspective it looks like that dry spot pushed the old inner core out and is now part of it is shifting east and it is going to make up a portion of a new eye. I guess the next hour of radar will tell the tale.

[MallowTheCloud]

Demeter, on Sep 11 2008, 10:30 AM, said:

Flame me if you feel it's needed, because I am too much of an amateur to add anything seriously worthwhile here, but....from my perspective it looks like that dry spot pushed the old inner core out and is now part of it is shifting east and it is going to make up a portion of a new eye. I guess the next hour of radar will tell the tale.

That's kind of what I'm thinking as well... that this was a dry spot ingested in to the center, and that it could make the basis for a new center/eye.

[Jalba]

[paul e]

janetjanet998, on Sep 11 2008, 01:21 PM, said:

you can almost see a warmer spot of blueish in a perfect circle in this shot..could just be an illiusion though

The thread about Gustav was almost identical at this point. Most posts were about , 'is that the eye now, or is it just the end of a small dry air slice'?

Over and over with each new satellite shot. . This is so frustrating. Not the same storm, and not the same strength, but frustration level is reminiscent. Western tip of Cuba and the ensuing environs in the gulf have had this effect on two closely timed canes. Id be very surprised if Ike did any more than fake us out from not til landfall, landing at similar strength as now.

[Lake Effect King]

GFDL 12z: Initialized too weak:

[OSUmetstud]

87 kt peak flight level on SE side.

[Ginx snewx]

ADKwx, on Sep 11 2008, 01:30 PM, said:

Waves up to 30FT at buoy 42001. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=42001

Great graphical representation of what everyone is saying about winds not increasing quickly in relation to pressure falls. Buoy 42001

[Terpeast]

OSUmetstud, on Sep 11 2008, 12:40 PM, said:

87 kt peak flight level on SE side.

So 90kt (almost 105 mph) might be a safe bet for what it is now.

[thelastsasquatch]

Jalba, on Sep 11 2008, 12:33 PM, said:

other than the massive size of course, it looks like it is having similar problems that Gustav did the day before landfall - just not able to close the loop for whatever reason. Of course we are almost 2 days out so there still might be time

[Cheeznado]

OSUmetstud, on Sep 11 2008, 01:40 PM, said:

87 kt peak flight level on SE side.

The E or NE side will tell the tale I think- I notice no SFMR winds with these obs wonder why?

[Dan1195]

I am going out on a limb and say Ike has already reached its minimum pressure in the GOM. It appears that the interaction with land has interfered enough with the overall structure that it is unable to correct itself despite near ideal conditions. Maybe if it had 4 more days over water it would be a different story, but then again maybe not due to the interference created by the outer wind maximums. It is also already past the highest heat content.