[Strat747]

I remain neutral on its future... :weight_lift:

[sarwx2.0]

You jinxed it already!!

New 12z GFDL kills it after 54hours... after spinning it SOUTHWARD.

:(

[HurricaneJosh]

:thumbsup:

Scott, I'm glad you started this thread-- you've developed a special, obsessive relationship with this baby. :sun:

[Eyewall2005]

.

[msp]

Eyewall2005, on Jul 18 2008, 12:40 PM, said:

Afternoon...

I see 96L is well on its way on becoming a TD with improving appearance on radar/sat.Also convection in the area has slowly be steadly been developing around its LLC with improving banding features.I expect which should see a TD named once recon gets in there.

Wrong thread.

[sarwx2.0]

Eyewall2005, on Jul 18 2008, 12:40 PM, said:

Afternoon...

I see 96L is well on its way on becoming a TD with improving appearance on radar/sat.Also convection in the area has slowly be steadly been developing around its LLC with improving banding features.I expect which should see a TD named once recon gets in there.

Wrong thread...

[turtlehurricane]

Ah, the invest hall of fame. I'm still working vigorously to withdraw one invest from that infamous hall ;)

[Strat747]

sarwx2.0, on Jul 18 2008, 12:33 PM, said:

You jinxed it already!!

New 12z GFDL kills it after 54hours... after spinning it SOUTHWARD.

:(

I'm quite new to this topic starting. Do I have the ability to ban negative thoughts? :scooter:


Even without developing its been a heckuva learning experience!

[HurricaneJosh]

Strat747, on Jul 18 2008, 10:44 AM, said:

I'm quite new to this topic starting. Do I have the ability to ban negative thoughts? :scooter:

:thumbsup:

Look out for that SARS guy-- you have to closely manage him or he'll being Debby Downer about everything. :D

[DoctorHurricane2004]

sarwx2.0, on Jul 18 2008, 01:33 PM, said:

You jinxed it already!!

New 12z GFDL kills it after 54hours... after spinning it SOUTHWARD.

:(

With the ULL in place, that is a very questionable outcome.



Meanwhile, as I thought it would, 94L has definitely slowed down a bit since yesterday. It has also gained considerable organization, and I would not be surprised if the recon finds a depression or a minimal storm this afternoon.

Regarding track and future intensity...the ULL is the big question. It is moving westward, and I do think that it, as well as a weakness in the ridge, will help to nudge 94L on a more WNW to NWly course as it traverses the western Caribbean. With regards to strength, it depends on how much 94L and the ULL interact. It could easily be more evacuated...or more sheared...by the low. I think we will see a more 'middle ground' here, and it may be a strong tropical storm as it enters the Gulf.

[Strat747]

HurricaneJosh, on Jul 18 2008, 12:34 PM, said:

:thumbsup:

Scott, I'm glad you started this thread-- you've developed a special, obsessive relationship with this baby. :sun:

Well you know as we have privately talked about I've always been fixated with the A,B,C majors that have effected the Texas coast.

'Dolly' just doesn't cut it.

[sarwx2.0]

HurricaneJosh, on Jul 18 2008, 12:45 PM, said:

:thumbsup:

Look out for that SARS guy-- you have to closely manage him or he'll being Debby Downer about everything. :D

:(

[Strat747]

Recon is back up around 14/75 where I thought there might have been something going on earlier.

No west winds found at this point in the mission.


17:39:00Z 14.65N 73.87W 991.1 mb
(~ 29.27 inHg) 157 meters
(~ 515 feet) 1009.0 mb
(~ 29.80 inHg) - From 71° at 22 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 25.3 mph)

[HurricaneJosh]

Strat747, on Jul 18 2008, 10:47 AM, said:

Well you know as we have privately talked about I've always been fixated with the A,B,C majors that have effected the Texas coast.

'Dolly' just doesn't cut it.

Yup. The big TX cyclones are always As, Bs, and Cs. (I learned that from you.) So Cristobal, wherever it forms, is your last chance for a major TX 'cane this year. You better hope 96L doesn't steal the name, or you're screwed... :D

sarwx2.0, on Jul 18 2008, 10:50 AM, said:

:(

:hug:

[wxmx]

sarwx2.0, on Jul 18 2008, 12:33 PM, said:

You jinxed it already!!

New 12z GFDL kills it after 54hours... after spinning it SOUTHWARD.

:(

In full domain you can see it doesn't really kills it. It gets back to New Orleans, as a very weak cyclone:
http://moe.met.fsu.e...;hour=Animation

[Strat747]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181759
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[Brent]

Strat747, on Jul 18 2008, 01:08 PM, said:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181759
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE. A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM AT
ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS
JAMAICA TONIGHT. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

I found that bolded part interesting. Maybe the more northward tracks have some credence?

[Strat747]

Well I think that we have all anticipated an eventual movement towards the WNW never knowing how sharp or when it will happen.

The mentioning of the Cayman Islands and Jamaica are probably due to the increase in rainfall.

Getting something in the NW Caribbean as we all know can get interesting.

[msp]

Brent, on Jul 18 2008, 01:09 PM, said:

I found that bolded part interesting. Maybe the more northward tracks have some credence?

Apparently the NHC thinks so. I'm honestly surprised though because to seriously impact Jamaica and the Caymans, it has to begin that turn NW pretty darn soon.

[sarwx2.0]

wxmx, on Jul 18 2008, 01:02 PM, said:

In full domain you can see it doesn't really kills it. It gets back to New Orleans, as a very weak cyclone:
http://moe.met.fsu.e...;hour=Animation

Hmmmm...

That's interesting, since it doesn't match this numeric data...

HOUR:   .0  LONG:  -71.12  LAT:  13.37  MIN PRESS (hPa):  993.15   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.87
HOUR:  6.0  LONG:  -72.73  LAT:  13.55  MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.86   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.86
HOUR: 12.0  LONG:  -73.89  LAT:  12.53  MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.48   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.38
HOUR: 18.0  LONG:  -73.94  LAT:  12.51  MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.59   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 25.10
HOUR: 24.0  LONG:  -73.91  LAT:  12.44  MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.07   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 30.23
HOUR: 30.0  LONG:  -73.88  LAT:  12.28  MIN PRESS (hPa): 1006.56   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.50
HOUR: 36.0  LONG:  -73.87  LAT:  12.26  MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.32   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.63
HOUR: 42.0  LONG:  -73.89  LAT:  12.29  MIN PRESS (hPa): 1009.23   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.85
HOUR: 48.0  LONG:  -73.88  LAT:  12.30  MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.96   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 32.11
HOUR: 54.0  LONG:  -73.86  LAT:  12.27  MIN PRESS (hPa): 1007.50   MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 27.11
	 -99.9		 -99.90	   -99.90