[Quakertown needs snow]

Didn't see a thread for the area.
Up to 50 this morning.
Hoping for a few inches tomorrow.
Hectic driving tomorrow.

[deeba1]

Hopeing here as well, though I'm a little south of you. I'm still hoping this event, no matter how big or small, doesn't outdo the Sat/Sun event. Very exciting times though.

[Fishmn]

Its hard to get into the obs mood when its 50F. Down right balmy.

[MerquryMan]

Im eagerly awaiting my 8-10" 6z NAM gave me :beer:

[DarkStar]

I am hoping for a shift south or a colder solution such as the NAM, but odds don't seem on my side currently. I was some what pleased to see a colder solution with the 6 Z NAM

[Quakertown needs snow]

6z NAM

[psuraven]

Didn't the NAM nail the clipper last week? I believe it was the model that had the storm further south than any of the other models so maybe it will pan out again?

I really like our chances for the weekend storm. Some peope get carried away with each model run. We know there's going to be a big storm over the weekend it's just a matter of nailing down the track. I don't see the track being nailed down until Friday afternoon or Saturday morning. There are just too many other players on the board, right now. I mean we're still trying to nail down the track for tomorrow's storm and it's less than 24 hours away. Do you think the models are going to nail down the track for the Sat./Sun. storm at this stage of the game?

[jrodd321]

Quakertown needs snow, on Dec 12 2007, 08:35 AM, said:

6z NAM
nam_pcp_042l.gif

Checked out the soundings for the 06z NAM. No rain for the storm. All freezing rain and ice. Driving is going to be horrible tomorrow. Especially tomorrow night.

[herbwx]

You could probably include N-central and NE MD in his thread -- may be a few minor surprises a little south of the MD-PA line.

[Rib]

I still have no idea what to expect tomorrow. The model I use most this close in is the 12km hi res NAM which is even colder than the regular with alot of sleet with a warm layer above 800. But, if there is no concensus on tomorrow, not sure how I can trust data for this weekend.

[jrodd321]

rob_22, on Dec 12 2007, 08:50 AM, said:

I still have no idea what to expect tomorrow. The model I use most this close in is the 12km hi res NAM which is even colder than the regular with alot of sleet with a warm layer above 800. But, if there is no concensus on tomorrow, not sure how I can trust data for this weekend.

Yea, Rob. Philly looks to be on the border for this event. Could be good or bad.

[Rib]

jrodd321, on Dec 12 2007, 08:50 AM, said:

Yea, Rob. Philly looks to be on the border for this event. Could be good or bad.

It's not even about borderlines, it's about why data is so far off this close in. Well, similar happened last winter and both times the cold solutions of the meso nam won, and the gfs looked really bad, so I guess I will lean towards sleet/zr for now.

[jrodd321]

rob_22, on Dec 12 2007, 08:53 AM, said:

It's not even about borderlines, it's about why data is so far off this close in. Well, similar happened last winter and both times the cold solutions of the meso nam won, and the gfs looked really bad, so I guess I will lean towards sleet/zr for now.

Yea, the models didn't handle the clipper too well last week either.

[southmountainwx]

psuraven, on Dec 12 2007, 08:42 AM, said:

Didn't the NAM nail the clipper last week? I believe it was the model that had the storm further south than any of the other models so maybe it will pan out again?

I really like our chances for the weekend storm. Some peope get carried away with each model run. We know there's going to be a big storm over the weekend it's just a matter of nailing down the track. I don't see the track being nailed down until Friday afternoon or Saturday morning. There are just too many other players on the board, right now. I mean we're still trying to nail down the track for tomorrow's storm and it's less than 24 hours away. Do you think the models are going to nail down the track for the Sat./Sun. storm at this stage of the game?

Hi nieghbor, what did you get in the clipper? Hanover was a sweetspot.

[psuraven]

southmountainwx, on Dec 12 2007, 08:57 AM, said:

Hi nieghbor, what did you get in the clipper? Hanover was a sweetspot.

I ended up with 4.5". How much did you get?

[Quakertown needs snow]

temp dropped to 46... winds north

[skiier04]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1124 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY.
HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER
SOUTH...WARM...MOIST AIR STREAMING IN ALOFT WILL OVERRUN SUB-
FREEZING AIR CLOSER TO SURFACE...SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045-130030-
/O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0009.071213T1100Z-071214T0300Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
1124 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY...AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY...
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER WHERE LESS
SLEET IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE MIXTURE WITH
SLEET WILL IS EXPECTED TO EFFECTIVELY CUT DOWN ON ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
LESS OF A MIX WITH SLEET WOULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXACT PATH
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY SNOW OR ICE
BECOMES IMMINENT...A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

$$

[JamieO]

skiier04, on Dec 12 2007, 04:27 PM, said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1124 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE POSSIBLE THURSDAY...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY.
HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FURTHER
SOUTH...WARM...MOIST AIR STREAMING IN ALOFT WILL OVERRUN SUB-
FREEZING AIR CLOSER TO SURFACE...SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-045-130030-
/O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0009.071213T1100Z-071214T0300Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
1124 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY...AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH SLEET AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY...
WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG THE NEW YORK BORDER WHERE LESS
SLEET IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE MIXTURE WITH
SLEET WILL IS EXPECTED TO EFFECTIVELY CUT DOWN ON ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
LESS OF A MIX WITH SLEET WOULD RESULT IN AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY
EXCEEDING 6 INCHES.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. THE EXACT PATH
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY SNOW OR ICE
BECOMES IMMINENT...A WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

$$

:thumbsup:

[rainshadow]

rob_22, on Dec 12 2007, 08:53 AM, said:

It's not even about borderlines, it's about why data is so far off this close in. Well, similar happened last winter and both times the cold solutions of the meso nam won, and the gfs looked really bad, so I guess I will lean towards sleet/zr for now.

Rob,

To say that the nam has been poor in our area since November is being kind. It does remain (I'm off today so its my eyeballing) the coldest model in our locale, but the cold finger of sleet is already showing up in Buffalo's actual sounding. I believe that now we are within 36hrs of the event, that the nam will have the sleet part right around us. Its fortuitous that it has been so warm the last couple of days and with this event occurring primarily during the day that I don't think freezing rain would be a problem until nightfall on roadways (vs trees). If the nam overplays the sleet, we're going to see less and less forecasters looking at the model (the way we kind of do with the ngm). If anything there has been greater emphasis on using the sref ensemble mean and some of those new probabilistic ptyps (you see a new link on e-wall) instead of depending upon what has been a poor single individual performer in our area.

Be well.

[Rib]

rainshadow, on Dec 12 2007, 12:05 PM, said:

Rob,

To say that the nam has been poor in our area since November is being kind. It does remain (I'm off today so its my eyeballing) the coldest model in our locale, but the cold finger of sleet is already showing up in Buffalo's actual sounding. I believe that now we are within 36hrs of the event, that the nam will have the sleet part right around us. Its fortuitous that it has been so warm the last couple of days and with this event occurring primarily during the day that I don't think freezing rain would be a problem until nightfall on roadways (vs trees). If the nam overplays the sleet, we're going to see less and less forecasters looking at the model (the way we kind of do with the ngm). If anything there has been greater emphasis on using the sref ensemble mean and some of those new probabilistic ptyps (you see a new link on e-wall) instead of depending upon what has been a poor single individual performer in our area.

Be well.

Just checked the 9z for us. Really does look like a sleet to rain type deal.