[WEATHER53]

Temps:Well above average
Snowfall:Below average


It's not a carbon copy of last year but not much different.

Overall Temps and monthly breakdowns, for DJF, are the same: +2 to +4 for each month and thus the winter as a whole.
Snowfall:10"

Rainfall will be below normal. He believes it will be a moderate la nina season. He foresees no protracted cold spell resembling last Feb. He does see cold shots for mid or late Dec and mid Feb. He indicates that some ski resorts will go out of business. There will be a 70 degree reading in each month. He thinks there will be a minor and major freezing rain event in the DC region.
The Christmas Day forecast is for cloudy and rainy conditions, high of 50, and turning colder.
Unlike any prior winter outlook he is issuing a caveat but does not intend to use this as a fall back position. He states this is one of his more difficult outlooks because if the la nina is weak then it would be colder and even though his outlooks are analog based, and not enso, he does utilize the enso and is looking at the possibility of a weaker nina.
Analog years are 1948-49,1975-75, 1998-99,1999-2000.

I can take some question thru about 9:30 then have to leave until early afternoon

[LEESBURG 04]

Cue Mitchnick 3..2..1..

It just feels like one of those years I guess. Wait and see mode now. Hoping for a weak Nina

[Birds~69]

Ji will be thrilled...

[Jay Peak Junkie]

Snow and Temps for analogs...

NYC

Snow
NOV-APR

1948-49   T   25.3   6.4  10.7   4.2	0	46.6

1975-76   T	 2.3   5.6   5.0   4.4	T	17.3

 1998-99  0	2.0   4.5   1.7   4.5	 0	 12.7

 1999-00  0	 T	9.5   5.2   0.4   1.2	 16.3

Temps
DEC-MAR

1948-49 38.3 38.6 38.6 42.9

1975-76 35.9 27.4 39.9 44.4

1998-99 43.2 33.9 38.9 42.5

1999-00 40.0 31.3 37.3 47.2

[weathafella]

Wise forecast at this point imo.

[uncle w1]

weathafella, on Sep 23 2007, 09:24 AM, said:

Wise forecast at this point imo.

sad but true. Lets hope he's wrong.

[Jay Peak Junkie]

Snow and Temps for analogs...
DCA

Snow
NOV-APR

1948-49   T	4.4  7.4   4.0	T   0.0	15.8

1975-76  0.0  0.4  0.1   0.9   0.8   0.0   2.2

1998-99  0.0  0.5  2.2   0.2   8.7   0.0  11.6

1999-00  0.0   T   14.5  0.9   0.0	T   15.4

Temps
DEC-MAR

1948-49 40.2 42.6 43.8 46.6

1975-76 40.5 33.9 46.9 51.3

1998-99 44.4 38.2 41.0 44.5

1999-00 42.0 35.9 42.5 51.7

[KEITH L.I]

uncle w1, on Sep 23 2007, 09:42 AM, said:

sad but true. Lets hope he's wrong.

True, but Unc..48-49 and 75-76 weren't bad up here..and 2000 had that Jan storm..and why is every Christmas rain and 50? LOL

[Ji]

i agree with the forecast. I have no trouble with it.

Looking forward to winter 09

Winters over....



at least we get 10 inches

[KEITH L.I]

Ji, on Sep 23 2007, 09:57 AM, said:

i agree with the forecast. I have no trouble with it.

Looking forward to winter 09

Winters over....
at least we get 10 inches

JI,he is not god..he has his share of busts..Feb 07..winter of 05-06,hang in there

[LEESBURG 04]

Ji, on Sep 23 2007, 09:57 AM, said:

i agree with the forecast. I have no trouble with it.

Looking forward to winter 09

Winters over....
at least we get 10 inches

You will get more than that and you know it.

[CleetusSnow]

I expect a lot of 'bust' forecasts, as in, this winter will be a bust.

[wxw]

While I was hoping he might give us a little surprise, i.e. even ONE cold or somewhat wintry month out of four -- this is what I was fully expecting. I feel sorry for the kids out there who won't be able to experience the joy of real winters in Maryland.

At least unlike last year there is no way we'll end up with high expectations and crappy results.

Sucks, but it's out of our control, and we move on.

I'll be focusing on going to places where there may be some sort of wintry weather.

[rainstorm]

sounds like a good forecast to me. the cane season we are having also points to a mild winter.

[Ji]

I think its important to note that KA would of gone cold if La Nina was weak...that is the key to our winter imo so All hope isnt lost.......

just 90% of it.

[HKY_WX]

The la-nina seems to be the key for the majority for forecasts.

[usedtobe]

WEATHER53, on Sep 23 2007, 08:53 AM, said:

Temps:Well above average
Snowfall:Below average
It's not a carbon copy of last year but not much different.

Overall Temps and monthly breakdowns, for DJF, are the same: +2 to +4 for each month and thus the winter as a whole.
Snowfall:10"

Rainfall will be below normal. He believes it will be a moderate la nina season. He foresees no protracted cold spell resembling last Feb. He does see cold shots for mid or late Dec and mid Feb. He indicates that some ski resorts will go out of business. There will be a 70 degree reading in each month. He thinks there will be a minor and major freezing rain event in the DC region.
The Christmas Day forecast is for cloudy and rainy conditions, high of 50, and turning colder.
Unlike any prior winter outlook he is issuing a caveat but does not intend to use this as a fall back position. He states this is one of his more difficult outlooks because if the la nina is weak then it would be colder and even though his outlooks are analog based, and not enso, he does utilize the enso and is looking at the possibility of a weaker nina.
Analog years are 1948-49,1975-75, 1998-99,1999-2000.

I can take some question thru about 9:30 then have to leave until early afternoon

Looks like you and he are at odds with the temp and snow forecasts. This is the second year in a row. I thought you used the same methods. How come you have differences?

Personally, I think KA's will be closer to the truth than yours but I profess no real skill at longer range forecasts.

[ptb127]

I posted this is another thread but no one answered so I will post it here again, Is KA a meteorologist or a hobbyist????

[CT Blizz]

It's a 40 north winter.

[mitchnick]

Thanks Leesburg. ;)
I said in a post last week that we might get lucky with a 2-4 week stretch like 1/00, and he uses that year as an analog. That's our only "reasonable" hope with the mod La Nina. JI, what are your thoughts again for 08/09?
Really, no one in the MA should be surprised with this "forecast" as its the most likely scenerio for us in a mod or strong NIN. Here's hoping for a fluke. :drunk: