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Ocean effect snow in florida sunday night/monday? - Eastern US Weather Forums

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Ocean effect snow in florida sunday night/monday?


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#1 Lookout

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Posted 10 February 2006 - 05:11 PM

im not an expert on ocean effect snow in florida but ive seen the gfs forecasting precip around tampa bay and the west central coast of florida the last several runs and take a look at the 18z gfs for monday morning and tampa bays sounding. probably too warm on the immediate coast but further inland where its likely to be colder, it looks possible. Gfs is forecasting temps near 3 or 4 c with dewpoints in the mid 20s inland. note the wind direction at the surface is from the north/NNE but northwesterly 900mb and up...which could help keep any surface warming from the ocean to a minimum/confined to the immediate coast.

would be a perfect example of how bad this winter has sucked in the snow department in the southeast when central florida gets more snow than most of the rest of us. :axesmiley:

Date: 66 hour AVN valid 12Z MON 13 FEB 06
Station: KTPA
Latitude: 27.97
Longitude: -82.53
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W
mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1022 11 4.1 3.2 94 1.0 3.7 21 9 275.6 276.3 275.7 288.3 4.70
1 1000 187 1.3 -0.4 89 1.7 0.6 15 17 274.5 275.1 273.8 284.5 3.72
2 950 600 -0.5 -1.1 96 0.6 -0.7 6 19 276.7 277.3 275.0 286.9 3.72
3 900 1030 -2.8 -3.0 99 0.2 -2.9 343 16 278.6 279.2 275.6 288.0 3.39
4 850 1716 -5.0 -5.3 98 0.3 -5.1 298 17 280.9 281.5 276.4 289.5 3.04
5 800 2203 -7.4 -7.6 98 0.3 -7.5 270 29 283.3 283.8 277.2 291.0 2.69
6 750 2716 -10.7 -10.8 99 0.2 -10.7 256 36 285.0 285.4 277.4 291.5 2.23
7 700 3259 -14.1 -15.0 93 0.8 -14.3 261 34 286.8 287.1 277.6 291.9 1.71
8 650 3844 -13.5 -30.9 22 17.4 -16.5 257 60 293.7 293.8 279.2 295.2 0.45
9 600 4483 -11.4 -51.9 2 40.5 -16.1 252 83 302.9 302.9 282.6 303.1 0.05
10 550 5178 -11.7 -48.4 3 36.6 -16.6 254 95 310.2 310.2 285.5 310.5 0.09

Posted Image

#2 TheGrinch

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Posted 10 February 2006 - 07:22 PM

i would like to hear more about the chances of this.

#3 Mdecoy

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Posted 10 February 2006 - 07:25 PM

yeah so would I.

That would be pretty amazing if it happened. How oftern does that part of flordia see snow?

#4 betanewt

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Posted 10 February 2006 - 07:29 PM

There wont be any snow with surface temps in the 40s.

#5 MerquryMan

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Posted 10 February 2006 - 07:30 PM

Too many people see those maps and think its gonna be 32 in miami

heres your SURFACE map

Posted Image

40's to 50 along west coast. Chilly, off chance of a few flakes up near great bend, But no ocean effect machine :)

#6 Sussex

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Posted 10 February 2006 - 07:33 PM

I wonder if Miami has ever reported snow (flurries?) on record...I go down there every winter...just can't picture it!

#7 EHoffman

    Danny Duberstein is good at two things: math, and *******!

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Posted 10 February 2006 - 07:36 PM

View PostSussex, on Feb 10 2006, 07:33 PM, said:

I wonder if Miami has ever reported snow (flurries?) on record...I go down there every winter...just can't picture it!

Nope, they never have, but Fort Myers did once.

#8 Mdecoy

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Posted 10 February 2006 - 07:39 PM

I wonder how long it's been since Miami has even gone below freezing. I think it's a VERY rare event.

#9 MerquryMan

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Posted 10 February 2006 - 07:49 PM

View PostMdecoy, on Feb 10 2006, 07:39 PM, said:

I wonder how long it's been since Miami has even gone below freezing. I think it's a VERY rare event.


February 1899 :lmaosmiley:

#10 TheGrinch

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Posted 10 February 2006 - 07:51 PM

it has snowed in miami! 1977

snow 1977

#11 ColdFront77

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Posted 11 February 2006 - 05:21 AM

Article from above link:

Snow is rare, but has fallen in Florida
By Jack Williams, USATODAY.com

While snow is far from common in Florida, it does fall there from time to time. In fact, on Jan. 19, 1977, snow fell in Homestead, Fla., only about 25 miles north of the bridge from the Florida mainland to the Keys, on Jan. 19, 1977.

This was during one of the worst of the mid-1970s U.S. cold waves and snow fell that day in several parts of Dade County, Fla., but not at the NWS office at the Miami Airport, which is why the official records do not show the snow.

Snow did fall in Homestead, Fla., only about 25 miles north of the bridge from the Florida mainland to the Keys, on Jan. 19, 1977. This was during one of the worst of the mid-1970s U.S. cold waves and snow fell that day in several parts of Dade County, Fla., but not at the NWS office at the Miami Airport, which is why the official records do not snow the snow.

For a fascinating look at the Jan. 19, 1977 snow in Dade County, you can go to Keith C. Heidorn's Weather Doctor Web site and read about Miami's first snowfall.

Jacksonville, in northeastern Florida, actually had a white Christmas in 1989.

The event began with light rain on Dec. 23, which turned to freezing rain and then snow as temperatuers fell. It stayed cold and the snow was still on the ground for Christmas. This information is from George Winterling, the chief meteorologist for Channel 4 in Jacksonville. who writes about Snow on the First Coast on the station's Web site.



My membername represents the year I was born (^179 days after the first event ^) and the cold fronts that brought the cold, wintry outbreaks.





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