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CBS3's Winter Forecast for Phila. - Eastern US Weather Forums

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CBS3's Winter Forecast for Phila.


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#1 Microburst

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 07:26 AM

http://cbs3.com/tops..._314221518.html

(CBS 3) PHILADELPHIA We just weeks away the snow and the cold coming back, but how much snow and how much cold will we endure? Meteorologist Paul Deanno has the official CBS 3 winter forecast.

CBS 3 looked back at more than 100-years of weather data searching for years just like this one. Then we saw a new pattern in the Pacific Ocean that's emerging. Put it all together and you have got the forecast for the next four months.

2005 has been a crazy year with the worst hurricane season ever, a long, hot summer, and an extremely dry September followed by the wettest October in history.

So what does that mean for the coming winter months?

Consider CBS 3’s formula of a soup kettle full of information. We looked back at years that had huge amounts of tropical storms, similar summers, other ocean patterns, and the snow-pack in Canada.

All of that information yielded a pattern. In years similar to this one, our area had rough winters with lots of snow and lots of cold.

“November will kind of tell the tale,” said Gary Szatkowski. “If it's colder, so will the winter be.”

Szatkowski, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, says grasping the power of El Nino has helped in long-range forecasting.

“We understand a lot better how that a pattern in the Pacific controls weather over much of the globe, including our neck of the woods,” stated Szatkowski.

And it is the opposite of El Nino, called La Nina, that is the ultimate factor for our winter forecast.

Over the past few weeks, a La Nina pattern has emerged and that means big changes for the final winter forecast.

24-inches of snow is predicted, which is 20-percent more than normal.

There are 15-days of temperatures below 20-degrees expected. That means it will not be as cold as over the past few years.

February will be the worst month. We are expecting it to be quite cold and wet.

And sorry kids, the outlook is not good for a white Christmas. CBS 3’s Weather Department believes most of the snow will fall late in the season.

You have been warned. Old man winter may arrive late, but he will arrive.

#2 LVweatherguy

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 07:41 AM

If only HM, VAWXMAN, RALEIGH, DT, LC, et la, were this thorough and precise. tsk. tsk. :guitar: :guitar:

#3 walkersc

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 08:43 AM

I don't know...they seem to put a lot of emphasis on analogs, and I'm just not that excited about them. Given that this year's tropical season was such an outlier, I don't think you can lean too hard on making a comparison to other "active" tropical years. But what do I know? LOL

#4 keggwx

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 09:19 AM

View Postwalkersc, on Nov 11 2005, 08:43 AM, said:

I don't know...they seem to put a lot of emphasis on analogs, and I'm just not that excited about them. Given that this year's tropical season was such an outlier, I don't think you can lean too hard on making a comparison to other "active" tropical years. But what do I know? LOL



You are not accounting for the fact that good satellite data was not available before either...

#5 donsutherland1

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 09:23 AM

Isawitonline,

Overall, I like the general ideas in this forecast. The snowfall forecast (24") is in the middle of my estimated range (20"-30"). Unfortunately, November will almost certainly prove warmer than normal in PHL. The article appears to argue that as goes November, so goes the winter and the October ENSO region anomalies (most similar to those of 1952, 1980, 1981, 1990, and 2001) suggest odds have increased for a mild winter. I had expected PHL to come in with anomalies of 0°-1° below normal. Whether or not I change that thinking depends on how the ENSO regions/PDO/NAO situation evolves by the end of November. However things change, I still strongly believe that Winter 2005-06 will not be a rerun of 2001-02 even if December-February winds up on the milder side of the ledger.

#6 Microburst

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 09:25 AM

View Postwalkersc, on Nov 11 2005, 08:43 AM, said:

I don't know...they seem to put a lot of emphasis on analogs, and I'm just not that excited about them. Given that this year's tropical season was such an outlier, I don't think you can lean too hard on making a comparison to other "active" tropical years. But what do I know? LOL


Analogs are nice to a point...I don't like the idea of buying into them lock, stock, and barrel either but they are useful to look at in the general scheme of things.

If I had a criticism of their forecast as it appears, it would be the following two things:

(1) More in-depth info on their website...as in, what years are you comparing 05-06 to?

(2) More temperature info...it's good to know that you expect 15 nights of sub 20 lows but what is your forecast temperature prediction -- how much above normal will it be? .7 degrees, 1.5?

I know the forecasts for TV need to be tuned down to reach the common joe but I think online having that information would be nice.

#7 stormMASCO

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 09:37 AM

It's a terrible job on the winteroutlook..Hurricane at nbc10.com does a better job on it because he uses good variables and maps to show what he thinks will happen..Plus a majority of mets including myself think december will be a very cold month ..he says winter will be late

#8 nin9inch9nails

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 09:38 AM

View Postkeggwx, on Nov 11 2005, 09:19 AM, said:



You are not accounting for the fact that good satellite data was not available before either...


My thoughts exactly and also wish to question accuracy/reliabilty of ALL pre satellite imagaing SST based indices that analog based LR forcasts are derived from.

#9 NoVaSnow

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 10:15 AM

One of the most poorly written professional forecasts I've ever seen (although not quite into DT quality).

#10 robbbs

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 11:24 AM

View PostNoVaSnow, on Nov 11 2005, 10:15 AM, said:

One of the most poorly written professional forecasts I've ever seen (although not quite into DT quality).


So lacking it doesn't even merit comment. Into the trash bin.

#11 PeterG

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 11:29 AM

View Postisawitonline, on Nov 11 2005, 07:26 AM, said:

http://cbs3.com/tops..._314221518.html

(CBS 3) PHILADELPHIA We just weeks away the snow and the cold coming back, but how much snow and how much cold will we endure? Meteorologist Paul Deanno has the official CBS 3 winter forecast.

CBS 3 looked back at more than 100-years of weather data searching for years just like this one. Then we saw a new pattern in the Pacific Ocean that's emerging. Put it all together and you have got the forecast for the next four months.

2005 has been a crazy year with the worst hurricane season ever, a long, hot summer, and an extremely dry September followed by the wettest October in history.

So what does that mean for the coming winter months?

Consider CBS 3’s formula of a soup kettle full of information. We looked back at years that had huge amounts of tropical storms, similar summers, other ocean patterns, and the snow-pack in Canada.

All of that information yielded a pattern. In years similar to this one, our area had rough winters with lots of snow and lots of cold.

“November will kind of tell the tale,” said Gary Szatkowski. “If it's colder, so will the winter be.”

Szatkowski, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, says grasping the power of El Nino has helped in long-range forecasting.

“We understand a lot better how that a pattern in the Pacific controls weather over much of the globe, including our neck of the woods,” stated Szatkowski.

And it is the opposite of El Nino, called La Nina, that is the ultimate factor for our winter forecast.

Over the past few weeks, a La Nina pattern has emerged and that means big changes for the final winter forecast.

24-inches of snow is predicted, which is 20-percent more than normal.

There are 15-days of temperatures below 20-degrees expected. That means it will not be as cold as over the past few years.

February will be the worst month. We are expecting it to be quite cold and wet.

And sorry kids, the outlook is not good for a white Christmas. CBS 3’s Weather Department believes most of the snow will fall late in the season.

You have been warned. Old man winter may arrive late, but he will arrive.


Hi am Peter. I am a meteorologist, and new to this site.
I live in the DC area. My forecast for DC for this Winter is based on Weatherplanner at http://www.weatherplanner.com . Weatherplanner has a new format, and will give you a free 14 day forecast for any location in the US and Canada. You need to pay for forecasts up to a year in advance ($30/yr.)
If you find these forecasts outrageous. That's fine. I have been verifying them for years. I feel they are better then climatology, and that's what matters, even though they will miss forecasts from time to time.

I am also willing to discuss any forecast range on this website.

Weatherplanner is looking for an alteration of colder then normal and dry with mild and moist periods, and are not predicting any classic snowstorms for DC, but have a few rain/snow situations predicted.

Here are the highlights:

November: Indian Summer hits on November 25, and lasts until the end of the month.

December: Mainly milder then normal, especially Dec. 5- Dec 9
A rainy period from Dec 11-Dec 13 with seasonable to above normal temperatures
An unseasonably mild and dry period from Dec 19-Dec 28, followed by a brief rain/snow storm on Dec 30th.

January: Brief rain/snow on the 1st, then very cold and dry, Jan 2- Jan 8 with a brief rain/snow period Jan 9-11th, an unseasonably mild wet period Jan 17-19th, and a unseasonably mild dry period after that until Jan 25th. A cold dry period follows Jan 26-28, followed by a unseasonably mild wet period to end the month.

February:
Unseasonably cold and dry from Feb 3-7th
A mild wet period from Feb 18-24th, followed by possible rain/snow on Feb 25th.

All forecasts have an error of one day, and occassionally two days. Forecasts are not updated, until a week or two in advance, when the short-range variables influence the weather.

PeterG

#12 snowguy44

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 11:42 AM

I don't know why some people insist that there is a La Nina. Fact is there is not, at least not yet. I read an "updated" forecast the other day from some forecaster at Oregon State University and he's claiming that a La Nina is currently in progress and completely changed his winter forecast. I don't know what these guys are looking at, but a La Nina is definately not in progress and the NWS is saying that there is only a possibility that a very weak one may form in the next 6-9 months.

#13 LVweatherguy

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 12:04 PM

View Postsnowguy44, on Nov 11 2005, 11:42 AM, said:

I don't know why some people insist that there is a La Nina. Fact is there is not, at least not yet. I read an "updated" forecast the other day from some forecaster at Oregon State University and he's claiming that a La Nina is currently in progress and completely changed his winter forecast. I don't know what these guys are looking at, but a La Nina is definately not in progress and the NWS is saying that there is only a possibility that a very weak one may form in the next 6-9 months.

You just wasted your time posting this. There are some on here that refuse to read the CPC statement and acknowledge that we are NOT in a La Nina.

#14 offshore moflo

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 12:13 PM

View Postsnowguy44, on Nov 11 2005, 11:42 AM, said:

I don't know why some people insist that there is a La Nina. Fact is there is not, at least not yet. I read an "updated" forecast the other day from some forecaster at Oregon State University and he's claiming that a La Nina is currently in progress and completely changed his winter forecast. I don't know what these guys are looking at, but a La Nina is definately not in progress and the NWS is saying that there is only a possibility that a very weak one may form in the next 6-9 months.



George Taylor out of OSU is a VERY smart dude.... He is also the Oregon State Climatologist and has been extremely accurate in his winter forecasts for the Portland Metro Area.... at least when I lived there.

I didn't see that article..... do you have a link... I would like to read it.

#15 stormman

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 02:50 PM

that forecast is almost complete opposite of most on here, most outlooks on here are for an early start to the winter, like hm is calling for, with february being the warmest of the winter, this forecast is calling for a late start to winter, with february being the coldest month.

#16 jrodd321

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 03:06 PM

Isawitonline, do you know how much snow CBS was forecasting last year for philly?

#17 Microburst

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Posted 11 November 2005 - 04:03 PM

View Postjrodd321, on Nov 11 2005, 03:06 PM, said:

Isawitonline, do you know how much snow CBS was forecasting last year for philly?


No, I only remember Rob Guarino's (FOX 29) from last winter (I think he called for 31 or so and he was almost DEAD on).

#18 offshore moflo

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Posted 19 November 2005 - 10:15 PM

View Postisawitonline, on Nov 11 2005, 04:03 PM, said:

No, I only remember Rob Guarino's (FOX 29) from last winter (I think he called for 31 or so and he was almost DEAD on).


Last Year we went 20"-28"......

This year we got sick of the HUGE ranges.... last year one of our competitors went 25"-35" .....

I guess we thought a 10" range was a bit much.... and even our 8" range.....was a bit much....

Might as well make a forecast and stick with it.... right? So this year... we put out one number instead of a range

Just to clarify what our forecast is.... because we got a bunch of email saying "Why did you forecast a Warm December"... which we didn't....

Our Forecast was this
24" of Snow at PHL
15 nights at PHL below 20 degrees
No Snow on the Ground Dec 25th
Febuary will have the coldest average temp for any month at PHL
Febuary will have the most snow of any month at PHL


And Thats that!

Andy

#19 mattmfm

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Posted 19 November 2005 - 10:19 PM

The local stations up here dont give winter forecasts. :(

#20 Microburst

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Posted 19 November 2005 - 10:19 PM

View Postoffshore moflo, on Nov 19 2005, 10:15 PM, said:

Last Year we went 20"-28"......

This year we got sick of the HUGE ranges.... last year one of our competitors went 25"-35" .....

I guess we though 10" range was a bit much.... and even our 8" range.....was a bit much....

Might as well make a forecast and stick with it.... right? So this year... we put out one number instead of a range

Just to clarify what our forecast is.... because we got a bunch of email saying "Why did you forecast a Warm December"... which we didn't....

Our Forecast was this
24" of Snow
15 nights at PHL below 20 degrees
No Snow on the Ground Dec 25th
Febuary will have the coldest average temp for any month at PHL
Febuary will have the most snow of any month at PHL
And Thats that!

Andy


I don't remember you guys saying warm December -- I DO remember hearing 'no White Christmas'

I guess for the joe schmos of the world 'no white Christmas' = warmth. :axesmiley:

As for the 25-35" I think I know who put that forecast out there but I won't say who :whistling:





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