[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, Invest.94L was designated in the southwest Atlantic. Over the past 6 hours, it has tracked to the west-southwest (258°) to 25.3N 78.7W. Its current intensity rating is 1.0.

Unfortunately, based on a combination of the model guidance and historic tropical climatology, this system has high probability of threatening U.S. landfall and will likely reach at least tropical storm strength at some point. Hurricane strength is possible.

Most of the models take this system across Florida or Georgia. A few recurve it. However, the evolving synoptic situation tends to argue against recurvature for this system. In an extreme case, it could try to escape before being pulled back toward the United States ala Hurricane Dawn (1972). Given its current motion, I don't believe that scenario will play out.

Historic climatology--going back to 1940 for a somewhat larger sample--reveals that 4/5 (80%) tropical cyclones that developed in the 23.3N-27.3N/76.7W-80.7W region eventually made U.S. landfall. There is some chance that this system could well track across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Both the BAMS and GFDL have a particularly disturbing track.

For now, I believe:

• Invest.94L will likely threaten U.S. landfall
• Invest.94L should become a tropical storm at some point
• Invest.94L could eventually attain hurricane strength
• There is a chance that Invest.94L could move into the GOM and eventually threaten a portion of the Gulf Coast.

[Will]

I like this format of forecasting.

[rainstorm]

the situation grows more alarming by the minute

[nutmegfriar]

How long before this becomes headline news?

[kpantz]

nutmegfriar, on Sep 5 2005, 11:15 AM, said:

How long before this becomes headline news?

When's JB's next time on FOX News?

[NCSUWX23]

Id much rather this come up towards the Carolinas.

[WX4caster88]

saying the GFDL track of this Invest is disturbing is an understatement

is makes me sick to know how well the GFDL did with the last storm... and now what its trying to do for this on

[usedtobe]

Unfortunately, the ensemble mean sfc and 500 pattern argue for a track across fl into the gulf. The gfdl is very bullish on the system and tracks it towards la. It's still to early to start calling for a la/ms landfall but the pattern certainlly looks favorable for another gulf storm.

Attached File(s)

•  ensemble_2.gif (46.88K)
  Number of downloads: 1

[snowman]

If this becomes a hurricane and does head for NO, which I certainly pray it doesn.t how soon does the nhc pick up on this and warn those in its way? If the gfdl is correct, something got to be done for them in New orleans. My lord, another hit would be too much? What are the circumstances for it comming up the coast? I am too much of an amateur to know much about this, but don is so good and his post outstanding. The pattern just seems to be repeating no matter where the storm forms.Why is this happening? This has been discussed in other threads. I am asking questions. The east coast seems to be in a vacum. Anyones ideas??

[Colin]

I cannot even fathom what it'd be like if another hurricane made landfall in LA/MS/AL..

[WX4caster88]

ConnMan, on Sep 5 2005, 11:35 AM, said:

Can this end up tracking further west, to say, TX?  Would be cruel irony if a storm headed towards the evacuees of the last.

ASTRODOME here we come :axesmiley:

[Ginx snewx]

WX4caster88, on Sep 5 2005, 10:43 AM, said:

ASTRODOME here we come  :axesmiley:

[nutmegfriar]

I know it's still a long way from happening, but imagine another 10 inches of rain in New Orleans. Wow.

[ColdFront77]

donsutherland1, on Sep 5 2005, 10:58 AM, said:

Most of the models take this system across Florida or Georgia.  A few recurve it.  However, the evolving synoptic situation tends to argue against recurvature for this system.  In an extreme case, it could try to escape before being pulled back toward the United States ala Hurricane Dawn (1972). Given its current motion, I don't believe that scenario will play out.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1972/DAWN/track.gif

[flwxwatcher45]

Don nice post.. It will be interesting to see if the Models start trending more West with Time..

[flwxwatcher45]

ColdFront77, on Sep 5 2005, 11:22 AM, said:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1972/DAWN/track.gif

Ginger.. that kind of track with this system would make JB need a Elephant tranquilizer.

[KeystoneStateWx]

Thanks for the update Don. Appears there is uncertainty in the future strength of that tropical feature, but certainly looks to be a pest this week as climatology favors it will be impacting the US.