[LarryCosgrove]

Friends

I thought it might ease the pain (at least for me!) of the recent "snow bomb that wasn't" (or the Pamela Anderson Jr. Storm) if I presented some comments about the next system on the horizon, a possible southern variant of the Alberta Clipper type.

A few remarks about the ongoing 500MB longwave pattern. I have read statements concerning possible "historic cold", and can only state that nothing in the current and near future jet stream supports extreme downward variations in temperature outside of Canada. That is not to say that readings will be near March averages in the Midwest and Northeast; quite obviously it will be chilly, but the PNA and NAO styled ridges in place around North America are NOT true blocks and do NOT deviate sufficiently in height to warrant concerns about a second visit of March 1960 or March 1993.

Energy rotating around the sprawling cAk vortex in N QC will trigger precipitation in two waves: one system (the Alberta Clipper) this weekend and another early next week that is complicated by an emerging closed low over the Sonoran Desert. The Alberta system will be a fast mover, and the relatively uniform treatment of this feature by the NWP schemes give us some confidence in making the track projection. Since the Arctic motherlode is just to the right of Hudson Bay, the impulse must deviate further south on a parabolic path than what is normal for cyclones of this type (shortwave based, lee cyclogenesis). Useful analogues May be March 17 1969 (?date) or late November 1975. If the low and its upper component do not deepen appreciably, a relatively narrow band of precipitation will follow evenly parallel to the motion of the low.

There may be complications: a north or south deviation in track, intensification on Saturday due to pulling energy and cold air from the QC vortex, or a possible use of the Atlantic Ocean moisture source that would push accumulations up to the left of the path. Also, I would be careful about ignoring the further upstream energy and its influences on the Clipper.

Best Regards,
Larry Cosgrove

[Chris L]

Larry, you did a very good job, with the storm, the track wasn't to be.... A tad east...

As for the Clipper, do you think it will be a tad stronger like the GGEM?

Do you believe there is a chance for a 'Big Dog' big snowstorm before spring is here?

[Jebman]

Alright VA snow enthusiasts, What needs to happen with this to get that track into central or southern North Carolina?

Tho I must say, the Boston trend this year is NOT TO BE DENIED.

Man I have GOT to move up there.......

[Chris L]

No, Jebman, you need a home in Northeastern Quebec.

[gkrangers]

An accumulations forecast for a month in advance? Wow! ;)

[Fullmug]

Hummm. . . the dates on the map, 4/4-4/6.

Typo or Fraudian slip???

[Chris L]

gkrangers, on Mar 1 2005, 09:03 PM, said:

An accumulations forecast for a month in advance? Wow!  ;)

Holy Heck, I did not notice that!!

[Chesapeake Weather]

Darn, I guess to my amatuer eyes that clipper track appeared to be much farther south then what you have depicted. Was hoping to pick up a dusting or so down here in Va Beach.

[Jebman]

Chris L, on Mar 1 2005, 08:02 PM, said:

No, Jebman, you need a home in Northeastern Quebec.

Great point, Chris. I think I'd actually enjoy being a "Kebecker". I'd save those folks a lot of money digging all that snow up there... :D :D :D :D :guitar: :guitar:

[gkrangers]

gregglc, on Mar 1 2005, 09:04 PM, said:

Darn, I guess to my amatuer eyes that clipper track appeared to be much farther south then what you have depicted.  Was hoping to pick up a dusting or so down here in Va Beach.

I could be completely offbase, but considering the northern trend with everything this year, its doubtful the track is too far south, like the GFS shows. I haven't looked at anything else...

[snowman]

Nice to see your post Mr. Cosgrove, thanks for the outlook and information on what may be the last two events of the winter for the midatlantic. Thanks for all of your contributions to this board. Your last forecast I consider was successful in that we got some snow and your track was very close to what actually transpired. Thanks for your efforts.

[Chris L]

Hey, Jeb.... This is for you..

Downtown Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada.

Attached File(s)

•  downtown.jpg (100.6K)
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[Fullmug]

Chris L, on Mar 1 2005, 09:08 PM, said:

Hey, Jeb.... This is for you..

Downtown Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada.

Looks like he's already been there. Nice shovel width path. The man's probably halfway to the N. Pole by now.

[Jebman]

Chris L, on Mar 1 2005, 08:08 PM, said:

Hey, Jeb.... This is for you..

Downtown Moncton, New Brunswick, Canada.

Thanks Chris! I've got to say man you are definitely hard-core!! :D

I lvoe all your winter snow pics and all those FABULOUS websites you provide links to with all those unbelievable snow pics!!! WOW!!

I can just imagine taking a nice long jebwalk down the path in that picture of Moncton, blasting many of my favorite CDs on my headphones, easing on down that road on a record-long 20 mile jebwalk. Man that is some really beautiful snow!!!!

Now THAT'S where I need to live!!!! :D :bike: :guitar:

[LarryCosgrove]

Fullmug, on Mar 1 2005, 09:04 PM, said:

Hummm. . . the dates on the map, 4/4-4/6.

Typo or Fraudian slip???

Typo corrected...LOL

[mitchnick]

Oh geez, to think another NE snow this winter. Who would have thought? I can't wait for this winter to end. This is like watching Bill Gates win at Vegas one hand after another. Enough is enough. And what guarantees those in NE a hit? Today's 18z GFS has the system coming further south and painting S PA down to S VA with over .25" qpf at the "magic" timeframe of 4 days out. Its sooooo predictable. Please, let this winter end already.

[Rib]

sw pa shaft! too bad i wont be here. 1-3 inches!

[Blue Ridge]

If that's a "Southern Variant", I'd hate to see a "Northern" one. :huh:

[Logan11]

I know it's tough for you guys to see NE constantly beat you on snowfall, but overall I think BWI must be looking at normal (maybe above) on seasonal snowfall? I could be wrong on that.

I'm getting beat badly by eastern NE also. I'm at 48.5" for the season and need 8" or so more to get a normal year. It seems likely I'll get that, but this is nothing compared to what Eastern Mass has had. They're in another world this year.

stormtracker, on Mar 1 2005, 08:33 PM, said:

Amen brotha.  Just don't even worry about the clipper.  I GuARANTEE you that we won't even see the mixed precip on Larry's map.  Not saying he's wrong, but that we won't even be lucky enough to see a few flakes.  I was actually half serious when I said issue the watches for Boston.