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NNE Fall Thread - Eastern US Weather Forums - Page 3

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NNE Fall Thread


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#41 Allenson

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 05:35 AM

Man-oh-man is it foul out there this morning: cool (50F), cloudy, a stiff north wind, patches of drizzle...not good motorcycling at all. I rode yesterday--didn't get wet but I got pretty chilly on my ride home in the evening.

Anyway, a band of heavy drizzle came through last evening depositing a hefty 0.06" of liquid.

I think I'll bask in the warm dry comforts of the truck today. :whistle:

#42 sBOS_wx

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 08:40 AM

55f here. Feels like fall.

#43 powderfreak

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 10:22 AM

Classic NNW flow precipitation event yesterday in Vermont. Had it been winter this would've been a nice snowfall along the Spine and Western Slopes. Chittenden County always does really well in events with a more NNW component (winds did go almost pure northerly for a time yesterday evening), as opposed to NW or WNW, because of the slight upglide caused by winds coming the length of the lake and converging on the VT side of the lake.

Most places got measurable out of this... but then there's the usual NW flow downslope region way down in Windsor County.

Attached File  Sept9_precip.png (81.63K)
Number of downloads: 1


Classic precipitation distribution with the highest precipitation amounts falling in western slope communities. Each of the towns below are located on the western slope of a 4,000ft peak. Axis running from Jay Peak in the north, south to Jeffersonville (Smugglers Notch/NW Mansfield), then Underhill on Mansfield's west side, crossing the Winooski River to Huntington/Hanksville on west side of Camels Hump, southward to Lincoln on the west side of Mount Ellen.

24 HOUR PRECIPITATION DATA IN INCHES, 
FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK, ENDING 
7 A.M. EST/EDT FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 10, 2010.

 
  VERMONT 

    FRENCH HILL LINCOLN                  0.62
    LINCOLN 2.2NW (1423FT)               0.51
    ELDER HILL LINCOLN                   0.43
    JEFFERSONVILLE COOP (1163 FT)        0.42
    HUNTINGTON 1.1E                      0.42
    HANKSVILLE COOP                      0.42
    JAY PEAK COOP (1875FT)               0.39
    NORTH UNDERHILL                      0.34
    UNDERHILL                            0.31


Winter can't come soon enough.

#44 MaineJayhawk

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 11:10 AM

64/48 Cloudy.
Boring weather.

What it is is fair-going weather.

#45 Dryslot

    Put a little captain in ya

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 12:32 PM

View PostMaineJayhawk, on 10 September 2010 - 11:10 AM, said:

64/48 Cloudy.
Boring weather.

What it is is fair-going weather.



What it really is, It sucks weather until the snow flies!!

#46 powderfreak

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 06:45 PM

This afternoon I did a loop on Mansfield as I have been doing some clean-up work of some of the backcountry ski lines on the mountain. Temps were in the mid/upper 50s at the base (1,600ft) and mid 40s at the summit. The ceiling this morning was near 3,600ft so the ridge was in the clouds... but throughout the course of the afternoon things seemed to dry out and the ceiling lifted to just above the summit. It certainly felt nice up high though with temps in the 40s and brisk NW winds...I was glad I brought a hat and gloves. Here are some pics:

Visibility at 4,000ft on Mansfield's mile long ridge was 50 feet or so when I first got up there.

Attached File  IMG_1441_edited-1.jpg (241.24K)
Number of downloads: 0

By the time I made it from one side of the ridge (the Chin) to the other side (the Nose) visibility had improved as the ceiling was lifting.

Attached File  IMG_1447_edited-1.jpg (215.06K)
Number of downloads: 0

With visibility improving, I even caught a few glimpses of the Champlain Valley below to the west.

Attached File  IMG_1446_edited-1.jpg (256.85K)
Number of downloads: 0

On the way down, I stopped and paid homage to the fabled Mount Mansfield snow stake. You know you are in a snowy climate when a 12-foot tall stake is needed to measure snow. It still blows my mind that during the epic 2000-2001 winter they attached an extension to this thing.

Attached File  IMG_1450_edited-1.jpg (448.94K)
Number of downloads: 0

Counting down the days till snow...

#47 J.Spin

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Posted 10 September 2010 - 10:59 PM

View Postpowderfreak, on 10 September 2010 - 10:22 AM, said:

Classic NNW flow precipitation event yesterday in Vermont. Had it been winter this would've been a nice snowfall along the Spine and Western Slopes. Chittenden County always does really well in events with a more NNW component (winds did go almost pure northerly for a time yesterday evening), as opposed to NW or WNW, because of the slight upglide caused by winds coming the length of the lake and converging on the VT side of the lake.

Most places got measurable out of this... but then there's the usual NW flow downslope region way down in Windsor County.

Attachment Sept9_precip.png

Classic precipitation distribution with the highest precipitation amounts falling in western slope communities. Each of the towns below are located on the western slope of a 4,000ft peak. Axis running from Jay Peak in the north, south to Jeffersonville (Smugglers Notch/NW Mansfield), then Underhill on Mansfield's west side, crossing the Winooski River to Huntington/Hanksville on west side of Camels Hump, southward to Lincoln on the west side of Mount Ellen.

Winter can't come soon enough.

Nice update Scott - I saw that cool map you added and it reminded me of the special maps that the BTV NWS links from their homepage after big snowfall events. I initially couldn't figure out where it came from and had to hunt around on the BTV NWS site, but eventually I found them at Climate --> More -->Daily Climate Maps. What I found just as cool though is that if one goes to that page and then chooses the option to view past daily climate maps, it provides the graphics like you show, but it also provides an incredibly comprehensive list of weather stations and data from the forecast area. You can get the temperature and precipitation data for almost 400 sites in the BTV forecast zone, and it seems to include all the CoCoRaHS sites, Cooperative sites, and even many of the ski areas! They weren't all reporting of course, but I had no idea we had so many sites in the forecast area. If snowfall data is available on those daily maps and in the comprehensive list as it suggests, that is going to be really great this winter.

Anyway, in terms of upslope precipitation, the event we just had was classic and a great confirmation of why we got so much snow around here. We picked up an additional 0.40" of precipitation as of this morning's 6:00 A.M. reading here. I opted for the Chittenden County display from CoCoRaHS this time, since it really shows the precipitation along the spine and western slopes and the way it falls off to the east. I circled my station in orange and you can really see how quickly the numbers fall off to the east of us:

Posted Image

Hopefully the enhanced precipitation is a sign of what's to come with the colder weather added in!

#48 MaineJayhawk

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Posted 11 September 2010 - 04:55 PM

Chilly one on tap tonight. GYX point puts me at 40, which would be my coldest reading since mid-May's freak cold snap. Just another indicator of the seasonal change.

66/48 now and it was one heck of a nice day.

#49 powderfreak

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Posted 11 September 2010 - 06:08 PM

View PostJ.Spin, on 10 September 2010 - 10:59 PM, said:


Nice update Scott - I saw that cool map you added and it reminded me of the special maps that the BTV NWS links from their homepage after big snowfall events. I initially couldn't figure out where it came from and had to hunt around on the BTV NWS site, but eventually I found them at Climate --> More -->Daily Climate Maps. What I found just as cool though is that if one goes to that page and then chooses the option to view past daily climate maps, it provides the graphics like you show, but it also provides an incredibly comprehensive list of weather stations and data from the forecast area. You can get the temperature and precipitation data for almost 400 sites in the BTV forecast zone, and it seems to include all the CoCoRaHS sites, Cooperative sites, and even many of the ski areas! They weren't all reporting of course, but I had no idea we had so many sites in the forecast area. If snowfall data is available on those daily maps and in the comprehensive list as it suggests, that is going to be really great this winter.



Yeah it is a great tool that BTV has for daily precipitation/temperature/snowfall data from around the North Country. They've had that up for over 3 years now (since spring 2007) and used to have a link on their homepage but that disappeared for some reason. I did notice that this past winter they started using the ski area numbers as well...presumably from the SkiVermont site or by browsing all of the ski area websites. My favorite thing is going back and looking at data from past days during the winter... you can look at the snowfall and snow depth maps from any given day in the past two winters by clicking on the calendar link near the top of the page.

http://www.erh.noaa....ml/climatemaps/

It is a great tool they have for us weather enthusiasts and I have emailed them in the past to tell them so. Hopefully they continue to do it.

#50 powderfreak

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Posted 11 September 2010 - 06:15 PM

BTV's Long Range discussion this afternoon mentions snow for the first time this season...

GOOD COLD ADVECTION/NW UPSLOPE FLOW ON WED AND MODELS SHOWING
THICKNESSES DOWN NEAR 540 DM BY WED AM FOR A COLD CLOUDY BRISK DAY
WITH UPSLOPE SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES ON TOP OF MT
MANSFIELD/MARCY.
HIGH TEMPS MAY BE STUCK IN THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS
AND ONLY NEAR 50 IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AT KSLK. HAVE CUT MAX TEMPS
3-5 DEGREES FOR NOW BUT IT COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF THE
ECMWF (COLDER OF THE MODELS) IS CORRECT.

#51 WEATHERCT

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Posted 11 September 2010 - 09:36 PM

I am ready for the snow

#52 PBanacos

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Posted 11 September 2010 - 11:44 PM

View Postpowderfreak, on 11 September 2010 - 06:08 PM, said:

Yeah it is a great tool that BTV has for daily precipitation/temperature/snowfall data from around the North Country. They've had that up for over 3 years now (since spring 2007) and used to have a link on their homepage but that disappeared for some reason. I did notice that this past winter they started using the ski area numbers as well...presumably from the SkiVermont site or by browsing all of the ski area websites. My favorite thing is going back and looking at data from past days during the winter... you can look at the snowfall and snow depth maps from any given day in the past two winters by clicking on the calendar link near the top of the page.

http://www.erh.noaa....ml/climatemaps/

It is a great tool they have for us weather enthusiasts and I have emailed them in the past to tell them so. Hopefully they continue to do it.


Glad you like the Climate Maps. There is also a link to the Climate Maps page from the main WFO BTV homepage right beneath the Point and Click forecast Map. Look for the pull-down menu labeled "Quick Jump to Popular Links:".

#53 Ginx snewx

    Negative NAO Negative AO

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 05:50 AM

View PostPBanacos, on 11 September 2010 - 11:44 PM, said:

Glad you like the Climate Maps. There is also a link to the Climate Maps page from the main WFO BTV homepage right beneath the Point and Click forecast Map. Look for the pull-down menu labeled "Quick Jump to Popular Links:".

Best NWS website , thank you love it.

#54 MaineJayhawk

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 12:06 PM

I don't think PWM is going to reach 60 today. 57 since 0800, overcast with a breeze off the water. Raw day out there. I wonder if this has a chance to be the first below normal month this year.

#55 powderfreak

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 12:08 PM

EUSWX member PBanacos throwing us a bone! I don't have to work till 3pm on Wednesday and if H85s do look to fall low enough with some low level orographic component (maybe some localized cooling over the summits/northern spine from forced ascent?), I may have to take a quick run up to 4,000ft on Mansfield around daybreak.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 349 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL START
SEASONABLY COOL...WITH A NW FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A
TRANSITION BACK TOWARD SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OCCURS THURSDAY THRU
SATURDAY...AND THAT WILL RESULT IN MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK
TOWARD SEASONABLE NORMALS. WHILE NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE
FORECAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NW FLOW BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHALLOW INSTABILITY IN COLD
TEMPERATURES REGIME /0 TO +2C AT 850MB/ LIKELY MAINTAINS AT LEAST
OROGRAPHIC/INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES ON
THE HIGHER SUMMITS DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS GFS POINT
SOUNDING AT JAY PEAK SHOWS FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 3200 FT AT 12Z
AND SATURATION UP THRU DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER /-12 TO -18C/. WE
SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE SATURATION ABOVE -10C SO ANY SUMMIT
FLURRIES SHOULD WANE AS WE PROGRESS THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THAT
SAID...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW
WEDNESDAY OF 20-30 KTS...AND PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...TABER/LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS

#56 mreaves

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 06:26 PM

Very fall like day today. The car thermometer read 59° when we left Barre at 1:00 headed to Essex. It read 65° when I got off I-89 at Richmond and 55° when we got back to Barre at 5:30. Cool and cloudy made me feel less guilty about not going outside much. Good to see one our BTV mets chiming in. :thumbsup:

#57 powderfreak

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Posted 12 September 2010 - 10:32 PM

Unfortunately the chances for any flakes definitely looks less than it did yesterday. Atmosphere looks to dry out too fast for any snow and H85s look a degree warmer...or at least the deepest cold is delayed until after RH values start to decline. Some rime would be nice though to whiten the rocks above 4,000ft.

#58 wxeyeNH

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Posted 13 September 2010 - 11:18 AM

Had to fire up the wood stove today for the first time. House was cold with low 50's throughout the morning with about .10" of rain. Losing tons of daylight each day now. The 90's of a couple of weeks ago seem long gone.

#59 Allenson

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Posted 13 September 2010 - 12:30 PM

View PostwxeyeNH, on 13 September 2010 - 11:18 AM, said:

Had to fire up the wood stove today for the first time. House was cold with low 50's throughout the morning with about .10" of rain. Losing tons of daylight each day now. The 90's of a couple of weeks ago seem long gone.


Yep, I fired up the stove last night myself and will likely do the same tonight. Just enough to drive the chill out...

Anyhow, picked up another paltry 0.04" last night and little bit more this morning. I can't even buy a solid tenth of an inch. I haven't recorded anything over 0.10" for a 24 hour period since 8/23 when 0.23" fell.

Short showers!

#60 tamarack

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Posted 13 September 2010 - 12:48 PM

View PostMaineJayhawk, on 12 September 2010 - 12:06 PM, said:

I don't think PWM is going to reach 60 today. 57 since 0800, overcast with a breeze off the water. Raw day out there. I wonder if this has a chance to be the first below normal month this year.


Would be a nice change, but PWM needs to average about -4 for the rest of the month to offset the early torch. Had 59/40 yesterday IMBY, coolest mean since May. If the clouds hadn't rolled in overnight, might've been 35 or lower. (Yesterday was my guess for MBY in the "1st frost" thread.)

Haven't been near a working computer since Wed aft - probably had highs 60 or lower IMBY Thurs/Fri. Two days tromping in the woods of N.Maine, where temps were mid-50s for highs, but fortunately only a bit of rain. The streams in NE Aroostook are quite high for this time of year; they got 4-6" rain (2/3 assoc. with Earl) from 9/4-9/10.

Color change in the woods NW and NE of Baxter Park was about 10% last Thurs/Fri, centered on the birches and red maple. Leaf drop was noticeable but not significant.

Edit, at 9:50 PM: Today's temps 54/46 with all the clouds producing just 0.05" in showers. This evening fired up the woodstove for the first time this season.





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