458 replies to this topic

[Pilot_Guy]

Another Texas Flood Event. woohoo

[wxmann_91]

BEGIN
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2010, DB, O, 2010090500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902010
AL, 90, 2010090406, , BEST, 0, 184N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090412, , BEST, 0, 186N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 189N, 958W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 90, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 193N, 958W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Strat747]

200 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH.

[Strat747]

[Strat747]

The initial plots just tracked the old EPAC low. Thought earlier that there was one independent trying to form further N though obs haven't been overly impressive.

[HurricaneJosh]

OK, so what's the deal with this? We gettin' Bret II out of it?

[Strat747]

0z Euro tries to develop a weak system (EPAC low) and brings it not to far S of the border in 48 hrs.

[wrathofnature.com]

Noticed a day or two ago, the gfs had this thing rolling up through southern texas and maybe bringing some rain to the ohio valley
We need it badly. Nice to see it trying to get its act together at least.

[Matthew-Weatherwatcher]

HurricaneJosh, on 05 September 2010 - 02:21 AM, said:

OK, so what's the deal with this? We gettin' Bret II out of it?

I sure hope so, but the gfs 00z shows a slow northwest motion making landfall within Mexico around where Bret 2005 went in. The developing LLC is pretty close to the coast near 19.3/95.8, but I expect that the convection to the northeast could pull the developing circ northeastward away from land. I would give this 80 percent chance at becoming a depression if it does so. Shear appears to be favorable and low level convergence has increased within this area...

[Strat747]

CRP -

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)

WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS BROAD LOW IN THE SW GULF WHICH SEVERAL MODELS
HAVE HINTED COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK
TROPICAL STORM. NAM GOES OVERBOARD AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.
CONVECTION IS FLARING UP NICELY THIS MORNING AND SFC PRESSURES ARE
HOVERING NEAR 1009MBS...PER BUOY 42055.


LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER (AT THIS TIME) WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWEST WITH MOST
MODELS FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ON
TUESDAY. WHETHER THIS DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR NOT...RAIN
WILL BE PREVALENT BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE. FOR MONDAY
NIGHT...LIKELY POPS EASTERN THIRD OF AREA WITH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE...THEN WENT CATEGORICAL ON POPS FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS WITH LIKELY POPS ELSEWHERE. BEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT
MORE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT A LITTLE LOWER...AND DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH WESTERN
GULF ENTITY...WILL MAINTAIN THE 50 POPS AREA-WIDE.

[jconsor]

Pressure falling steadily (down to 1007 mb) and winds increasing out of the east at buoy 42055:
http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=42055

Also Veracruz pressure down to 1006 mb with west winds:
http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html

[Strat747]

BRO -

NHC AND HPC DISCUSSIONS PREFER A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROPICAL LOW SITUATED EAST OF
VERACRUZ. MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW TO TRACK STEADILY NORTHWEST
PARALLELING THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND BETWEEN TAMPICO AND
MATAMOROS IN EASTERN TAMAULIPAS. DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WITH TIMING
AND DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY THE NAM WHICH LOOKS WAY OVER DONE ON
STRENGTH AND SPEED.

[Strat747]

Up to code red -

800 AM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATES THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

Appears the beginning of some banding...

[Strat747]

Earlier disco from HPC -

QUESTIONS SURROUND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AT THIS TIME /WHICH STEMS FROM FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11-E WHICH STRUCK SOUTHEAST MEXICO ON SATURDAY/...HOW STRONG IT
WILL BE...AND WHEN/WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO AND
INTO TEXAS JUST PRIOR TO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THERE ARE A
HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA WHICH MOVES FROM CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. FOR
NOW...KEPT THE SYSTEM A TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS TEXAS EARLY ON
SIMILAR TO HOW IT WAS COORDINATED AT 16Z ON SATURDAY AND LEANED
AWAY FROM THE 00Z NAM...THOUGH THE RECENT TRENDS SEEN IN THE ECMWF
FAVOR A STRONGER SOLUTION. EITHER WAY...IT SHOULD BE WET ACROSS
THE LONE STAR STATE/PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY TO MID PERIOD. SEE THE LATEST OUTLOOKS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.


From the model diagnostic disco -

REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO...PREFERENCE FOR A SOLUTION CLOSE TO A 00Z GFS/00Z
UKMET/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
THE NAM HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD/MUCH STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER
ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS BEEN WAVERING AROUND ITS 18Z
SOLUTION DURING ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY MORE DEFINED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST 2.5 DAYS OF
RUNS. WHEN COMPARING THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...THE 00Z NAM IS
FAR AND AWAY THE DEEPEST... BRINGING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM INTO
SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT FOR ITS TIMING...ITS DEPTH IS LIKELY TOO GREAT. WILL
PREFER A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 00Z GFS/00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH BETTER FITS WHAT WAS COORDINATED BETWEEN HPC
AND NHC AT 16Z SATURDAY...ACCOUNTS FOR THE BETTER DEFINED/STRONGER
TRENDS SEEN IN THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS AS WELL AS NHCS CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS OF THIS SYSTEM. SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM
THE NHC FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBED WEATHER AREA.

[Met Tech]

Looks like a global vs. mesoscale model contest going. Texas WFOs and HPC are tossing out a strong NAM-like solution as unrealistic in favor of a weaker GFS/ECMWF idea. The 12 km NAM, 10 km KWRF (with two diff configs), NCEP 5 km ARW and 5 km NMM are all going for a small, tightly-wound stronger system near landfall.

On a similar note, even though I've never watched what it does with tropical systems, the Rapid Refresh has what seems to be a pretty tight low already winding up down there.

[OSUmetstud]

Pressure is down to 1006 mb at buoy 42055.

[Debbie Downer]

OSUmetstud, on 05 September 2010 - 08:45 AM, said:

Pressure is down to 1006 mb at buoy 42055.

Woo hoo!

1938 redux?

[Ed M abu Texas Wx Lizard]

I hope we log our well in Nueces County before the rain comes. That dirt becomes first rate gumbo mud when wet.


First couple of frames on home made NASA floater still in the dark. In an hour, that link will be happier, I like at least 8 frames.

Looks close to a TD already. No A/C tasked for today, one was mentioned as maybe being tasked tomorrow when today's POD for tomorrow comes out, I wonder if they can gin up an aircraft on short notice to assist our friends South of the Border in assessing the impending depression or storm.

[srainhoutx]

238 
WHXX01 KWBC 051229
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1229 UTC SUN SEP 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100905 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100905  1200   100906  0000   100906  1200   100907  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    19.4N  95.6W   20.3N  96.1W   21.4N  96.9W   22.7N  97.6W
BAMD    19.4N  95.6W   19.9N  96.3W   20.3N  97.0W   20.9N  97.8W
BAMM    19.4N  95.6W   20.2N  96.0W   20.8N  96.7W   21.7N  97.5W
LBAR    19.4N  95.6W   19.9N  96.1W   20.8N  97.1W   22.1N  98.5W
SHIP        25KTS          34KTS          42KTS          51KTS
DSHP        25KTS          34KTS          42KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100907  1200   100908  1200   100909  1200   100910  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.2N  98.9W   27.5N 102.1W   31.9N 103.2W   38.0N  98.9W
BAMD    21.6N  99.0W   23.4N 101.8W   25.6N 103.9W   28.5N 104.1W
BAMM    22.8N  98.6W   25.3N 101.3W   28.6N 103.0W   33.2N 101.0W
LBAR    23.8N  99.9W   28.7N 101.9W   35.2N  99.5W   39.6N  89.3W
SHIP        60KTS          73KTS          77KTS          71KTS
DSHP        34KTS          27KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  19.4N LONCUR =  95.6W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =  18.9N LONM12 =  95.6W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  18.6N LONM24 =  95.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM