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Tropical Storm Fiona (08L) - Eastern US Weather Forums

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Tropical Storm Fiona (08L)


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#1 DoctorHurricane2004

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 03:41 PM

Quote

000
WTNT23 KNHC 302039
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
2100 UTC MON AUG 30 2010

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF FIONA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 48.7W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 47.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.9N 51.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 15.8N 55.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.2N 59.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.3N 62.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 29.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 48.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


#2 ~Floydbuster

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 03:43 PM

Rather far north and weak. Honestly can't see it getting that strong until the longer ranges, but track wise that's also completely up in the air.

#3 HurricaneFrances04

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 03:43 PM

Last thing the islands need to worry about at this point.

Day 4 and 5 points are pretty close to each other. Putting some weight into the Euro?

#4 DoctorHurricane2004

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 03:47 PM

I'm not sure if I quite agree 100% with their forecast, though Fiona does have some dry air to work through yet.

#5 DoctorHurricane2004

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 03:48 PM

Quote

000
WTNT43 KNHC 302047
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010

EARLIER TODAY...ABOUT 30 DROPSONDES WERE RELEASED DURING A G-V
RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
800 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ONE OF THE DROPSONDES
MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 35 KT APPROXIMATELY 120 N MI TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THIS MEASUREMENT AGREES WITH AN
ASCAT PASS FROM 1208 UTC...WHICH SHOWED A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS
IN THAT SAME AREA. CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE THIN FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...BUT BANDING FEATURES HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE PROMINENT
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION AND SINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DIRECTLY UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
FIONA.

SINCE FIONA STILL LACKS SOME ORGANIZATION AND THE WIND FIELD IS
SOMEWHAT LARGE...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS
STRUCTURE IS HANDLED WELL BY THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...WHICH INTENSIFY FIONA TO A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48
HOURS...SO I AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND
HWRF AT THIS POINT. IN FACT...THE GFS DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN
2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS MINIMAL
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE
INTENSITY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WHEN IT APPEARS THAT INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR.

THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/21. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SHOWS FIONA TURNING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST...GENERALLY FOLLOWING EARL AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS KEEP FIONA AS A WEAK SYSTEM AND SHOW IT
CONTINUING TO THE NORTH IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND EARL. THE
ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWS A STRONGER FIONA AND SUGGESTS
THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE THE
CYCLONE CAN RECURVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN LIES A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS IN FAVOR OF THE TRACKS OF THE WEAKER GFDL
AND HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 14.4N 48.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 14.9N 51.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 15.8N 55.9W 40 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 17.2N 59.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 01/1800Z 19.3N 62.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 03/1800Z 27.5N 68.0W 40 KT
120HR VT 04/1800Z 29.0N 69.0W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG


#6 DoctorHurricane2004

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 03:52 PM

View PostIan, on 30 August 2010 - 03:50 PM, said:

it's definitely a big letdown after all that euro lovin


You know, considering the Euro's accuracy..and the GFS, etc.'s specialness.... one wonders why the NHC would suddenly abandon the Euro solution for the others. Whatever floats their boat, I guess...

#7 srainhoutx

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 03:57 PM

The way I read the disco is the only thing that they are sure of is the next 48 hours. Beyond that, we'll see.

#8 DoctorHurricane2004

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 03:58 PM

View PostIan, on 30 August 2010 - 03:55 PM, said:

well the gfs has a lot more support right now it seems. and the euro has been spitting out numerous solutions so it has not really been consistent other than producing a powerful storm.


True. Hopefully in a few days, a good number of G-IV/V missions sampling the ridge will solve the problems.

#9 DoctorHurricane2004

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 04:02 PM

View PostIan, on 30 August 2010 - 03:59 PM, said:

i feel like they might be a bit bearish but it's hard to go too bullish right now i suppose. wouldnt be that shocked to see intensity swing up in future updates though.


It does seem overly bearish. I think I'd lean closer to the Euro on intensity, and a bit further west than the official track. Maybe have 65 or 70 KT at 96/120 hours.

#10 gil888

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 04:06 PM

Fiona has got a lot of obstacles to overcome-- #1 is the somewhat drier air. #2 is its current lack of convection. #3 is the NE winds blasting from Earl. #4 is to avoid being recurved by Earl. #5 may be Earl's cool wake. Yikes. Even longer-term, it will have to avoid being recurved by the same trough that got Earl. :devilsmiley: :gun_bandana:

But it is the peak of the season, this these have a way of surviving and surprising :) Should be a rather up and down ride.

#11 DoctorHurricane2004

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 04:15 PM

View Postgil888, on 30 August 2010 - 04:06 PM, said:

Fiona has got a lot of obstacles to overcome-- #1 is the somewhat drier air. #2 is its current lack of convection. #3 is the NE winds blasting from Earl. #4 is to avoid being recurved by Earl. #5 may be Earl's cool wake. Yikes. Even longer-term, it will have to avoid being recurved by the same trough that got Earl. :devilsmiley: :gun_bandana:

But it is the peak of the season, this these have a way of surviving and surprising :) Should be a rather up and down ride.


1- agree
2- seems to be overcoming that ever so gradually
3- eh, don't agree that it will be too significant
4- agree...just dependent on strength of Fiona and the ridge that builds in behind Earl
5- disagree... shouldn't be a problem this time of year

#12 bic

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 04:20 PM

Posted Image

#13 GaWx

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 04:26 PM

View PostDoctorHurricane2004, on 30 August 2010 - 04:15 PM, said:

5- disagree... shouldn't be a problem this time of year


Really. Don't you think that crossing the wake of a cat. four hurricane would have a nontrivial effect vs. if Earl had not been there? I'm not saying it would necessarily cause weakening, especially because it could easily still be weak then, but might it at least cause a temporary stoppage or delay in any strengthening while crossing the wake?

#14 icebreaker5221

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 04:31 PM

This is quite the interesting case of NHC vs ECMWF. First the OP EC takes Fiona along the western-most extent of the forecast cone as a much stronger system than what NHC is forecasting, then the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean comes in west of the OP!

More ensembles take Fiona E of FL than into/ S of FL, but the spread is HUGE. And, about 1/4 to 1/3 still takes her into the Gulf.

Note that the ones that take her for a southern ride are stronger with the system, hence the deceiving appearance of a southern track consensus in the ensemble mean:

Attached File  12zecmwfenstropical500mbSLP144.gif (53.34K)
Number of downloads: 2

#15 bic

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 04:31 PM

I'm thinking that Fiona will become a fascinating (and frustrating) storm for us to track, as not only are the models split between fishing and shredding, her intensification may be thwarted somewhat by Earl's upwelling.

#16 wxmx

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 04:39 PM

View PostIan, on 30 August 2010 - 04:34 PM, said:

they're still slowly shifting west so that's a good thing i guess


Even the BAMD, including all the big islands slalom.

#17 DoctorHurricane2004

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 04:39 PM

View PostGaWx, on 30 August 2010 - 04:26 PM, said:

Really. Don't you think that crossing the wake of a cat. hour hurricane would have a nontrivial effect vs. if Earl had not been there? I'm not saying it would necessarily cause weakening, especially because it could easily still be weak then, but might it at least cause a temporary stoppage or delay in any strengthening while crossing the wake?


This is the peak time for SSTs...and it's been a significantly above average year. There won't be a problem.

#18 WX4caster88

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 04:54 PM

View Postgil888, on 30 August 2010 - 04:06 PM, said:

Fiona has got a lot of obstacles to overcome-- #1 is the somewhat drier air. #2 is its current lack of convection. #3 is the NE winds blasting from Earl. #4 is to avoid being recurved by Earl. #5 may be Earl's cool wake. Yikes. Even longer-term, it will have to avoid being recurved by the same trough that got Earl. :devilsmiley: :gun_bandana:

But it is the peak of the season, this these have a way of surviving and surprising :) Should be a rather up and down ride.


I'm with you on this one... I have to admit that it looks like the GFS is scoring a coup with this run... with the ECWMF trending towards the GFS intensity wise, keeping the storm weak as it will face interaction with Earl's outflow. The next 24-48 hour period really might spell the fate of the system, because it will be traversing a very convoluted upper level pattern. I'll be posting some more thoughts later tonight.

#19 WX4caster88

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 05:31 PM

To add to my last comment... the upper level convergence it might experience if it outruns the current upper level ridge it is over is a bit concerning...

Posted Image

#20 wxsmwhrms

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 06:28 PM

View Postgil888, on 30 August 2010 - 04:06 PM, said:

Fiona has got a lot of obstacles to overcome-- #1 is the somewhat drier air. #2 is its current lack of convection. #3 is the NE winds blasting from Earl. #4 is to avoid being recurved by Earl. #5 may be Earl's cool wake. Yikes. Even longer-term, it will have to avoid being recurved by the same trough that got Earl. :devilsmiley: :gun_bandana:

But it is the peak of the season, this these have a way of surviving and surprising :) Should be a rather up and down ride.


Agree with all of this. One thing I will say is the fact that the ECMWF hangs on to this system, and has consistently done so for many runs now, would indicate that this system may have the strength and structure to survive having a lot of negatives thrown at it. As you say, it is near the peak of the system, and there have been memorable systems in the past that have done what the ECMWF shows - hung on for days through a negative environment only to finally get into a favorable environment and gone crazy, Andrew and Katrina being two that come to mind. (NOT saying Fiona will be like those, just some examples :arrowhead:





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