948 replies to this topic

[gkrangers]

Part 2.

[srainhoutx]

Tough day in the NE Caribbean...

[wxsmwhrms]

Eye hasn't moved much in JUA radar last hour. San Juan looks to be getting some pretty good squalls.

[Lake Effect King]

[ajsaglia]

 earl_02.png (662.39K)
Number of downloads: 4

[pattig]

just a slight adjustment of the track to the left makes things very interesting

[WXmanShane]

This thing better start making a northerly jog soon or Puerto Rico and especially the city of San Juan are going to get rocked.

[hooralph]

Been reading reports from St. Barths, the small island just below the 18N line. The Northeast side of the island, the one exposed to the Atlantic escaped problems since the storm, it sounds, since it went NE, but the back side is taking a pounding on the SW winds, and that's problematic, because the main harbor is on that side.

[snowman21]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 301445
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

...EARL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICAN ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE SAN JUAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM. ST. MAARTEN REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 68 MPH...109
KM/HR WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN IN
PUERTO RICO.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO
5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...
ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES...100 PM AST AND 300 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[AviationWX29]

Eyewall2005, on 30 August 2010 - 09:46 AM, said:

LEK can you put out a call for 97 if it gets named later today?

Lets keep the 97 talk in the invest 97 thread

[Lake Effect King]

I think it will be a non-event....probably absorbed at some point or stretched out/ripped up POS in 5 days.

[DJnVa]

Lake Effect King, on 30 August 2010 - 09:42 AM, said:

Any reason you seem to have it a lot slower than NOAA?

11 pm Friday, you have it south of Hatteras, and NOAA has it off Delaware 8 am Friday morning.

[wxsmwhrms]

Been getting sustained TS force winds now for a couple of hours at Charlotte Amalie. Had a peak wind of 51 kt in the last hour. San Juan had a gust of minimal TS force in squalls during the last hour.

[MetJayBenny]

NHC has moved the track back west again, but interestingly only from north of 35N to LF. Now a direct hit in NS and a brush with Cape Cod. The intensity of the storm is also greater than last update, with Earl still at major hurricane status a few hundred miles south of LI.

[hudsonvalley21]

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.


The million dollar question is when the turn occurs.

[Lake Effect King]

DJnVa, on 30 August 2010 - 10:00 AM, said:

Any reason you seem to have it a lot slower than NOAA?

11 pm Friday, you have it south of Hatteras, and NOAA has it off Delaware 8 am Friday morning.

No, my mistake on date.

Noticed my mistake before your post!!

Corrected now!

[nutmegfriar]

WXmanShane, on 30 August 2010 - 09:45 AM, said:

This thing better start making a northerly jog soon or Puerto Rico and especially the city of San Juan are going to get rocked.

The eye should be well north of PR.

[Pilot_Guy]

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.1.1                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  30 AUG 2010    Time :   141500 UTC
      Lat :   18:35:48 N     Lon :   63:24:16 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                5.0 / 971.7mb/ 90.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                4.8     6.5     6.5

     Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP :  +1.7mb

 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

 Center Temp : -17.8C    Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

 Scene Type : EYE  

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : ON    
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

Some major numbers (ADJ/RAW)

[Ed M abu Texas Wx Lizard]

Good thing we have recon, I've heard Dvorak can be an entire category off actual intensity. How does ADT compare to manual Dvorak? Anyone know?

[Pilot_Guy]

Although recon confirms otherwise, that sure looks like a small eye.