161 replies to this topic

[rainshadow]

A-L-E-X, on 03 October 2010 - 04:31 PM, said:

ok so we want either normal or cold october.




Tony, is the correlation as strong with november?  How about a couplet?




BTW was 00-01 a weak la nina?

Ninas would favor a warm October, so not having a warm October is a good first step. I have always October as the foundation, so November is predicated first on what occurs in October, its just me. Yeah 2000-01 was a weak nina.

[saw0023]

37/61 years the NAO in October is flipped in the following winter...0 of the last 3 NAO's have flipped FWIW.

[uncle w1]

remember last October we got a hint of what was to come when we had a week of cold and wet plus white in some places...

[uncle w1]

uncle w1, on 03 October 2010 - 06:16 PM, said:

remember last October we got a hint of what was to come when we had a week of cold and wet plus white in some places...

Not all Octobers had hints of a snowy winter temperature wise...Here are the Octobers before the snowiest winters since 1944...

Attached File(s)

•  octbefore30inters.png (137.29K)
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[Isotherm]

uncle w1, on 03 October 2010 - 06:41 PM, said:

Not all Octobers had hints of a snowy winter temperature wise...Here are the Octobers before the snowiest winters since 1944...

Uncle W -- would be intresting to see what percentage of those years were warmer than normal, since the scale is pretty close to 0 and there may be a few years skewing the picture.

[rainshadow]

Isotherm, on 03 October 2010 - 07:43 PM, said:

Uncle W -- would be intresting to see what percentage of those years were warmer than normal, since the scale is pretty close to 0 and there may be a few years skewing the picture.

Also snow and temperatures are not necessarily attached. E.G. last winter was in the normal "third" of winters in PHL, wasn't the coldest strong el nino on record.

[rainshadow]

rainshadow, on 29 August 2010 - 06:47 AM, said:

Seasonal Snowfall and Nina Temps by category since 1949-50 (61 winters)

Strong Ninas.......15.9 inches.......35.8F.....6 seasons
Moderate Ninas.....13.8 inches.......35.3F.....7 seasons
Weak Ninas.........23.1 inches.......33.8F.....7 seasons

Enso Neutral.... ..22.0 inches (22 seasons)

Weak Ninos.........28.1 inches.......5 seasons
Moderate Ninos.....24.3 inches.......8 seasons
Strong Ninos.......27.0 inches.......6 seasons

Current winter normal 34.8F and 61 year snowfall sample average 21.9 inches


Breakdown of single major snowfall events by enso state as measured in PHL


Number of 6 inch or greater single events

Strong Ninas........3......6 seasons
Moderate Ninas......1......7 seasons
Weak Ninas..........4......7 seasons

Enso Neutral.............21.............22 seasons
Enso Neutral cool........15.............12 seasons
Enso Neutral warm........5..............9 seasons
Really Enso Neutral......1........... ..1 season

Weak Ninos.........5.......5 seasons
Moderate Ninos.....8.......8 seasons
Strong Ninos.......8.......6 seasons


Number of 10 inch or greater single events

Strong Ninas........0......6 seasons
Moderate Ninas......0......7 seasons
Weak Ninas..........1......7 seasons

Enso Neutral........8.............22 seasons
Enso Neutral cool...6.............12 seasons
Enso Neutral warm...2..............9 seasons
Really Enso Neutral.0..............1 season

Weak Ninos...........3.......5 seasons
Moderate Ninos.......1.......8 seasons
Strong Ninos.........6.......6 seasons

Table is found scrolling down.

http://www.erh.noaa....phi/winter.html

I went back and looked at the snowiest strong la nina on record in PHL, 1916-17 with nearly 40" of snow, the interesting or not so interesting thing about that winter was that the largest single snowfall event for that winter was 7 inches, in April.

[Isotherm]

rainshadow, on 03 October 2010 - 08:33 PM, said:

I went back and looked at the snowiest strong la nina on record in PHL, 1916-17 with nearly 40" of snow, the interesting or not so interesting thing about that winter was that the largest single snowfall event for that winter was 7 inches, in April.

Tony, interesting, and that coincides with the idea that there are very few KU events in mod/strong nina years. But I think all of us would be more than happy with several 3-6" events over the course of a very cold winter.

[rainshadow]

Isotherm, on 03 October 2010 - 08:43 PM, said:

Tony, interesting, and that coincides with the idea that there are very few KU events in mod/strong nina years. But I think all of us would be more than happy with several 3-6" events over the course of a very cold winter.

Isotherm,

Moderate ninas did better in days gone by, I just went back and looked at the two moderate ninas and there was a big one (20") just after Christmas in 1909 and a 10" and 6" event in Jan/Feb 1893.

The NH snow/icecover is off to a good start.

[famartin]

Isotherm, on 03 October 2010 - 08:43 PM, said:

Tony, interesting, and that coincides with the idea that there are very few KU events in mod/strong nina years. But I think all of us would be more than happy with several 3-6" events over the course of a very cold winter.

I would be, since I'd really rather not chase again this year

[A-L-E-X]

rainshadow, on 03 October 2010 - 08:33 PM, said:

I went back and looked at the snowiest strong la nina on record in PHL, 1916-17 with nearly 40" of snow, the interesting or not so interesting thing about that winter was that the largest single snowfall event for that winter was 7 inches, in April.

Tony, the 1910s were known for big April events-- what was the ENSO the year that Philly had that big 20 incher in April?

[rainshadow]

A-L-E-X, on 04 October 2010 - 12:09 PM, said:

Tony, the 1910s were known for big April events-- what was the ENSO the year that Philly had that big 20 incher in April?

Enso neutral positive

[tombo82685]

so far phl is -.5 for the month not including today.

[uncle w1]

October 1974 was one of the coldest in the last fifty years...Three straight mornings below freezing in Central Park and other record cool mornings...I was thinking the next winter was going to be cold also...November 1st 1974 was 81 degrees for a near record high...we did get a two week period of snow and cold late Jan into February but the rest of the winter was awful...

[rainshadow]

Good start to October snow and ice coverage:

 nhtime-4month.png (7.73K)
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[tombo82685]

-2.6 so far for the month, should add on another -5 today or so.

[tombo82685]

phl came in with a -6 today, making the monthly departure -3.2

[saw0023]

tombo82685, on 05 October 2010 - 08:23 PM, said:

phl came in with a -6 today, making the monthly departure -3.2

After today those negative departures will get shaved a good bit.

[rainshadow]

saw0023, on 06 October 2010 - 05:34 AM, said:

After today those negative departures will get shaved a good bit.

This is pretty corroborative

 phase.Last40days.gif (11.66K)
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EPO is on board too. Both the EPO and NAO (the latter a less impact) are suggesting a colder pattern after the 15th if their outlooks hold.

[NJwinter17]

rainshadow, on 06 October 2010 - 10:10 AM, said:

This is pretty corroborative

phase.Last40days.gif

EPO is on board too. Both the EPO and NAO (the latter a less impact) are suggesting a colder pattern after the 15th if their outlooks hold.

Ahh look what's decided to show itself outside of the circle..Forecasted to become stronger too and propogate nicely towards phases 6-7 (at least on gfs/gefs) after the 15th as you alluded to. To my understanding we wouldnt expect the MJO to have a strong presence at all during a strong ENSO event (gee I wonder who I got this stuff from) so I'm interested to see where this wave takes us over the next couple of weeks and beyond.