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Computer models are going to have to change - Eastern US Weather Forums

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Computer models are going to have to change


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#1 Meteorologist

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 02:15 PM

http://www.scientifi...oding-in-pakist

#2 Cyric297

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 02:18 PM

Wait, you mean those floods weren't some super conspiracy between US and India to flood pakistan?

http://www.paktribun...ex.shtml?230630


Sorry.. had to ;)

#3 BethesdaBoy

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 02:21 PM

AGW = my ass :devilsmiley:

#4 NZucker

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 02:26 PM

Man these people are so dump. The flooding was clearly caused by natural cycles such as the AMO, ENSO, and monsoon....combined with a history of environmental mismanagement and poor preparation in Pakistan. Yet it's all global warming's fault, huh?

#5 BethesdaBoy

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 02:37 PM

View PostNZucker, on 19 August 2010 - 02:26 PM, said:

Man these people are so dump. The flooding was clearly caused by natural cycles such as the AMO, ENSO, and monsoon....combined with a history of environmental mismanagement and poor preparation in Pakistan. Yet it's all global warming's fault, huh?


Its all part of their agenda, why would they not try to further it? :rolleyes:

#6 bobbutts

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 03:05 PM

essentially if there was an alternate world with no human caused climate change this wouldn't have happened
I think even tiny changes to climate would eventually compound and lead to vastly different weather even if climate was nearly indistinguishable between the two alternates
so by that reasoning every single event is always related to climate change

#7 WeatherRusty

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 03:37 PM

The dice are loaded. Get used to it.

#8 ElTacoman

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 03:43 PM

View PostWeatherRusty, on 19 August 2010 - 03:37 PM, said:

The dice are loaded. Get used to it.


So what caused weather disasters before AGW? What dice were in play then? Because there have been an awful lot of extreme events down through history.

#9 superjames1992

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 03:49 PM

Bad things never happened before humans began emitting CO2 during the Industrial Revolution. The world was a peaceful, loving, safe, carefree place where the humans and the bees got along. Now AGW has scorched the earth with fires, floods, and earthquakes, none of which happened before 1800! Posted Image

View PostElTacoman, on 19 August 2010 - 03:43 PM, said:

So what caused weather disasters before AGW? What dice were in play then? Because there have been an awful lot of extreme events down through history.

Those events are all conspiracies by anti-global warming activists. ;)

#10 MallowTheCloud

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 03:58 PM

View PostElTacoman, on 19 August 2010 - 03:43 PM, said:

So what caused weather disasters before AGW? What dice were in play then? Because there have been an awful lot of extreme events down through history.


You can still roll a 12 on regular dice. It's just easier on loaded dice.

#11 WeatherRusty

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 04:03 PM

View PostElTacoman, on 19 August 2010 - 03:43 PM, said:

So what caused weather disasters before AGW? What dice were in play then? Because there have been an awful lot of extreme events down through history.


The dynamics are no different than they ever were. The laws of physics have not changed and they will not change. In a warmer world there is more energy to be dissipated plain and simple. More energy more energetic events.

#12 aslkahuna

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 04:19 PM

I don't think that's the point he was trying to make. He's asking why now EVERY extreme event is caused by AGW while events of equal or even higher intensity occurred before the CO2 began to increase. Extreme events are weather not climate. If a trend establishes then one can argue climate change (though not necessarily AGW since there's questions about how much A is involved) otherwise no. Remember Climate is what you expect-weather is what you get.

Steve

#13 WeatherRusty

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 04:34 PM

View Postaslkahuna, on 19 August 2010 - 04:19 PM, said:

I don't think that's the point he was trying to make. He's asking why now EVERY extreme event is caused by AGW while events of equal or even higher intensity occurred before the CO2 began to increase. Extreme events are weather not climate. If a trend establishes then one can argue climate change (though not necessarily AGW since there's questions about how much A is involved) otherwise no. Remember Climate is what you expect-weather is what you get.

Steve


Agreed. That's why I mentioned loaded dice. It is warmer than it was several decades ago...right? That we get more energetic events more frequently should be no surprise especially when the additional heat and humidity is not equally distributed.

#14 BethesdaBoy

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 04:35 PM

View Postaslkahuna, on 19 August 2010 - 04:19 PM, said:

I don't think that's the point he was trying to make. He's asking why now EVERY extreme event is caused by AGW while events of equal or even higher intensity occurred before the CO2 began to increase. Extreme events are weather not climate. If a trend establishes then one can argue climate change (though not necessarily AGW since there's questions about how much A is involved) otherwise no. Remember Climate is what you expect-weather is what you get.

Steve


The Warm Atlantic SST's were obviously created Naturally, Strong El Nino and Warm AMO brewed up warm waters. Heres a Quote from the Article: "scientists at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva say there's no doubt that higher Atlantic Ocean temperatures contributed to the disaster begun late last month."

And Another: "Atmospheric anomalies that led to the floods are also directly related to the same weather phenomena that a caused the record heat wave in Russia and flooding and mudslides in western China, said Ghassem Asrar, director of the World Climate Research Programme and WMO"


If this is all traced back to the Warm atlantic SSTs, why worry?

http://www.osdpd.noa...w.8.19.2010.gif

#15 CAD wedge_NC

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 04:40 PM

To say that the flood in Pakistan is related to Global Warming is to say that the snow in the Mid-Atlantic this past winter is due to Global cooling. Come on now, we are smarter than this......

#16 WeatherRusty

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 04:42 PM

View PostBethesdaBoy, on 19 August 2010 - 04:35 PM, said:

The Warm Atlantic SST's were obviously created Naturally, Strong El Nino and Warm AMO brewed up warm waters. Heres a Quote from the Article: "scientists at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in Geneva say there's no doubt that higher Atlantic Ocean temperatures contributed to the disaster begun late last month."

And Another: "Atmospheric anomalies that led to the floods are also directly related to the same weather phenomena that a caused the record heat wave in Russia and flooding and mudslides in western China, said Ghassem Asrar, director of the World Climate Research Programme and WMO"


If this is all traced back to the Warm atlantic SSTs, why worry?

http://www.osdpd.noa...w.8.19.2010.gif


The oceans are accumulating over 90% of the energy as the greenhouse effect intensifies. The oceans are warming as a part of climate change. 77 F SST off Nantucket as we speak.

#17 BethesdaBoy

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 05:04 PM

View PostWeatherRusty, on 19 August 2010 - 04:42 PM, said:

The oceans are accumulating over 90% of the energy as the greenhouse effect intensifies. The oceans are warming as a part of climate change. 77 F SST off Nantucket as we speak.


You obviously have no Idea what you're talking about. The SST's change every year due to Upwelling in the AMO/ENSO/PDO Regions.

December 1998: http://www.osdpd.noa....12.12.1998.gif

January 2001: http://www.osdpd.noa...ht.1.6.2001.gif


That is an example of a Rapid Switch from El Nino, +PDO, +AMO, to La Nina,, -PDO and Neutral AMO. Each ocean has a series of surface and subsurface current Belts, each of which alter surface and subsurface sst's. The Warm Atlantic this year is nothing out of the Ordinary,but it does have its consequences in the form of altering weather patterns, which of course, and have positve and negative impacts.

The Globe nautrally Balances out these energy extremes, thus Hurricanes/rains cool/distribute the high energy elsewhere, Just as CO2= more plant life, thus more CO2 is taken out of the atmosphere.

#18 ElTacoman

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 05:53 PM

View PostMallowTheCloud, on 19 August 2010 - 03:58 PM, said:

You can still roll a 12 on regular dice. It's just easier on loaded dice.


Ok, but what evidence do we have that these events are due to AGW...or that they are even happening more often than they used to? There are so many variables, it just seems like a lot of conclusions are being jumped to.

#19 ElTacoman

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 05:54 PM

View PostWeatherRusty, on 19 August 2010 - 04:03 PM, said:

The dynamics are no different than they ever were. The laws of physics have not changed and they will not change. In a warmer world there is more energy to be dissipated plain and simple. More energy more energetic events.


But in terms of actual energy change, how significant of a difference would it actual be in terms of how in manifests itself in storms/extreme weather events, etc? A lot of unproven assumptions, I think...

#20 WeatherRusty

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Posted 19 August 2010 - 05:55 PM

View PostBethesdaBoy, on 19 August 2010 - 05:04 PM, said:

You obviously have no Idea what you're talking about. The SST's change every year due to Upwelling in the AMO/ENSO/PDO Regions.

December 1998: http://www.osdpd.noa....12.12.1998.gif

January 2001: http://www.osdpd.noa...ht.1.6.2001.gif


That is an example of a Rapid Switch from El Nino, +PDO, +AMO, to La Nina,, -PDO and Neutral AMO. Each ocean has a series of surface and subsurface current Belts, each of which alter surface and subsurface sst's. The Warm Atlantic this year is nothing out of the Ordinary,but it does have its consequences in the form of altering weather patterns, which of course, and have positve and negative impacts.

The Globe nautrally Balances out these energy extremes, thus Hurricanes/rains cool/distribute the high energy elsewhere, Just as CO2= more plant life, thus more CO2 is taken out of the atmosphere.


Are you aware of the studies looking at Earth's energy budget indicating where greenhouse warming is predominately going? I didn't think so!

See Here

And Here

From IPCC - More




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