255 replies to this topic

[Ed M abu Texas Wx Lizard]

I suspect winds do decouple quite a bit over water much cooler than the magic 26ºC.

The highest gust recorded in the 1938 hurricane was well inland, just West of Boston. 186 mph. 635 feet above sea level on a hill. The Blue Hill Observatory. Sustained winds of 121 mph. Providence, closer to the coast, and closer to the center, but at sea level, was just 100 mph gusts to 125. At that time, a solid Cat 3 just above the surface, but a Cat 2 nearer sea level.


That was theorized to have been a Cat 5. It apparently takes about a Cat 5, considering the amount of weakening a system undergoes once it passes North of the Gulf Stream near Texas Tower East of ACY, to be a major at landfall.

[srainhoutx]

Ed M abu Texas Wx Lizard, on 04 August 2010 - 04:06 PM, said:

I suspect winds do decouple quite a bit over water much cooler than the magic 26ºC.

The highest gust recorded in the 1938 hurricane was well inland, just West of Boston. 186 mph. 635 feet above sea level on a hill. The Blue Hill Observatory. Sustained winds of 121 mph. Providence, closer to the coast, and closer to the center, but at sea level, was just 100 mph gusts to 125. At that time, a solid Cat 3 just above the surface, but a Cat 2 nearer sea level.


That was theorized to have been a Cat 5. It apparently takes about a Cat 5, considering the amount of weakening a system undergoes once it passes North of the Gulf Stream near Texas Tower East of ACY, to be a major at landfall.

FYI: This has been hashed and rehashed to death.

[CUmet]

OSUmetstud, on 04 August 2010 - 04:02 PM, said:

I honestly think they find a closed low on the 00z recon mission tonight. It looks a ton better over the last 12 hours. The outflow to the southwest is a sign that the westerly shear is not hurting this system too much.

I agree that this is close to closing off again. The enhanced divergence aloft is helping this thing despite the shear.

I can also see this getting quite strong once it accelerates to the northeast. It looks like a classic favorable trough-interaction assuming it survives to that point, which I think it will.

[CapeWeatherWatcher2010]

wxwatcher91, on 04 August 2010 - 03:38 PM, said:

Huge blow up near 20N/61W in the last hour

yes, it has been quite vigorous as of late. Also outflow is substantial on the eastern side of the system. I think it is quite possible he could miss this weakness currently to the north of him. He does not appear to be moving too fast anymore as the upper level low moves northward, just off to his north, northwest.

[wxwatcher91]

CUmet, on 04 August 2010 - 04:13 PM, said:

I agree that this is close to closing off again. The enhanced divergence aloft is helping this thing despite the shear.

I can also see this getting quite strong once it accelerates to the northeast. It looks like a classic favorable trough-interaction assuming it survives to that point, which I think it will.

Yeah, the east side of the tutt is really helping to ventilate this thing in a big way. UL divergence has strengthened significantly in the last 24 hours. Convection is the best we've seen with this storm.

[Lake Effect King]

Well, needless to say, my thoughts on Colin from last night have been obliterated. That little "swirl" NE of PR is essentially what I was thinking to be the llv entitiy that would have survived and then rejuvinate over the Bahamas...not going to happen, as new convection within the envelope of the wave axis developed nicely enough to rob any chance of the old llc to rise from the dead. Now that the old skin has been shed, the new skin (ie llc) developing well to the NE, has almost no chance of seeing west of 70W....

Maybe some good surf for the EC surfers!!

[WX4caster88]

Lake Effect King, on 04 August 2010 - 04:42 PM, said:

Well, needless to say, my thoughts on Colin from last night have been obliterated. That little "swirl" NE of PR is essentially what I was thinking to be the llv entitiy that would have survived and then rejuvinate over the Bahamas...not going to happen, as new convection within the envelope of the wave axis developed nicely enough to rob any chance of the old llc to rise from the dead. Now that the old skin has been shed, the new skin (ie llc) developing well to the NE, has almost no chance of seeing west of 70W....

Maybe some good surf for the EC surfers!!

Yep, it looks like the convection is attempting to form a new circulation, and the old one will likely just fade away. There really is no hope, regardless of where the llc is at this point to expect this system to get close to the East Coast given the strong southerly flow at 500mb on the GFS analysis.

[Normandy]

What kind of threat do you think there is to Bermuda then? If it won't get past 70W we could assume itll pass relatively close to the island at least.

[nutmegfriar]

Lake Effect King, on 04 August 2010 - 04:42 PM, said:

Well, needless to say, my thoughts on Colin from last night have been obliterated. That little "swirl" NE of PR is essentially what I was thinking to be the llv entitiy that would have survived and then rejuvinate over the Bahamas...not going to happen, as new convection within the envelope of the wave axis developed nicely enough to rob any chance of the old llc to rise from the dead. Now that the old skin has been shed, the new skin (ie llc) developing well to the NE, has almost no chance of seeing west of 70W....

Maybe some good surf for the EC surfers!!

I'll be on the Outer Banks Saturday and Sunday. How's the timing for kicked up surf from "Colin"?

Thanks.

[Cape Fear Rationalist]

WX4caster88, on 04 August 2010 - 04:51 PM, said:

Yep, it looks like the convection is attempting to form a new circulation, and the old one will likely just fade away. There really is no hope, regardless of where the llc is at this point to expect this system to get close to the East Coast given the strong southerly flow at 500mb on the GFS analysis.

An irritating storm from the start; but sop for the season so far.

[srainhoutx]

Sunset...

[Lake Effect King]

nutmegfriar, on 04 August 2010 - 05:04 PM, said:

I'll be on the Outer Banks Saturday and Sunday. How's the timing for kicked up surf from "Colin"?

Thanks.

Probably in about a day or so. There has been strong winds in the northern part of the wave axis for better part of this week, and if we see some intensification, I'd presume that that would translate into a gradual ramp up in the surf throughout the weekend.....If little or no intensification, then just the run of the mill breakers.

[OSUmetstud]

Is recon leaving all the way from Mississippi? I see some data is coming in from a flight in the NGOM.

[gil888]

next plane is 18z according to the POD.

[srainhoutx]

ABNT20 KNHC 042338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED BUT THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[SnowLover]

srainhoutx, on 04 August 2010 - 05:34 PM, said:

Sunset...

Passing just northeast of that pivotal 20/60 coordinate and thus outside of the Hebert box. So long EC threat.

[Matthew-Weatherwatcher]

Seems to be developing nicely tonight...With what appears to be a LLC near 20.3/61.8 moving northwestward. I expect that as the ULL moves out of its way this should develop a anticyclone and head northwestward throughout the next 72 hours followed by a northward and finally a northeastward classic fish. We will see, but I would be willing to say that this could come close to cane strength by 96-120 hours as it is being recurved.

[turtlehurricane]

My update on the imminent resurrection of Colin. http://hurricanewarning1.com/

The remnants of Colin, now located just to the north of the Lesser Antilles, have become much better organized today. Vorticity and convection have increased quite a bit near the center, especially in recent hours, and a reconnaissance mission into Colin earlier found that it had winds of tropical storm force. Shear is expected to start decreasing over Colin tomorrow morning as the upper-level low that's causing the shear moves away, and we could see Colin become reclassified tomorrow or Friday. Environmental conditions look favorable for intensification if Colin develops, and it could become a hurricane. Fortunately, there have been some large changes in the forecast track of Colin. Models no longer show the Bermuda high being strong enough to push Colin towards the east coast. However, if the Bermuda high ends up weaker than currently projected, Colin could threaten Bermuda. That would occur in about 4 days, so we certainly have some time to wait and see how this situation evolves. This is the sort of thing that makes this business exciting. One day it looks like a storm is going towards the east coast, and the next it's going towards Bermuda.

[nutmegfriar]

Lake Effect King, on 04 August 2010 - 05:34 PM, said:

Probably in about a day or so. There has been strong winds in the northern part of the wave axis for better part of this week, and if we see some intensification, I'd presume that that would translate into a gradual ramp up in the surf throughout the weekend.....If little or no intensification, then just the run of the mill breakers.

Thank you for the response.

[jconsor]

I'm wondering if the low-level center is still decoupled from the deep convection.

Numerous buoys and sfc obs over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands show a clear wind shift from NNW/NW to SW over the past 6-12 hours.

http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=frdp4
http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41053
http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=ltbv3
http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html
http://www.wundergro...ilyHistory.html
http://www.wundergro...ar=2010&month=8

Also, pressure has fallen 4 mb in the past 24 hours at the buoy at 21N 65W (about 200 miles west of the center):

http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41043

Puerto Rico radar also shows a well defined center, elongated a bit SW-NE. Since it's so close to the radar beam, the center it's showing here is probably below 925 mb. This is over 150 miles west of the deep convection.
http://radar.weather...id=JUA&loop=yes