A Novice's Guide to model guidance When do i get my model!?
#1
Posted 01 February 2010 - 09:51 PM
Here is a brief guide for all you weather weenies just starting out to when you can find your models....
What time is it?
Weather models are run in UTC, which is Coordinated Universal Time, this can also be referred to as Zulu time (hence the “Z”) which is military time, or GMT, Greenwich Mean Time
“UTC” Coordinated Universal Time = “Z” Zulu = “GMT” Greenwich Mean Time
Weather observations are also reported in this style.
0000z is midnight (@ the Greenwich Meridian)
1200z is noon (@ the Greenwich Meridian)
That’s great, but what time is it here?
Eastern Standard Time (winter) is 5 hours behind UTC
Ex 12z = 7am
00z= 7pm (Remembering that 00z is actually midnight)
During Eastern Daylight Savings (summer) is 4 hours behind the UTC
Ex 12z = 8am
00z = 8pm
LOCAL EDT EST
Midnight 400 500
1 a.m. 500 600
2 a.m. 600 700
3 a.m. 700 800
4 a.m. 800 900
5 a.m. 900 1000
6 a.m. 1000 1100
7 a.m. 1100 1200
8 a.m. 1200 1300
9 a.m. 1300 1400
10 a.m. 1400 1500
11 a.m. 1500 1600
NOON 1600 1700
1 p.m. 1700 1800
2 p.m. 1800 1900
3 p.m. 1900 2000
4 p.m. 2000 2100
5 p.m. 2100 2200
6 p.m. 2200 2300
7 p.m. 2300 2400
8 p.m. 2400 100
9 p.m. 100 200
10 p.m. 200 300
11 p.m. 300 400
LOCAL EDT EST
Ok, now that’s settled, what time can I see each model run?
This depends on the model. It is important to remember with model run timing that the time indicated is actually when the model begins its run for instance 12z starts to run at (Noon Greenwhich mean time) 7 EST. Some models are faster than others.
Here I will outline the NAM, GFS, Euro, UKMET, GGEM and SREF for you.
The following times are for EST.
1.)NAM( North American Mesoscale Model) Model forecasts are produced every six hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. Data is available in 6 hour incriments out to 84 hours.
NAM
0z: 8:45pm
6z: 2:45am
12z: 8:45am
18z: 2:45pm
2.)GFS (Global Forecast System) Model Forecasts are also produced every 6 hours. (00, 06, 12, & 18). Like the NAM they are available in 6 hour increments. Unline the NAM, the GFS is a longer range model and goes out to 384 hours.
GFS
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm
3.)ECWMF( The Euro) forecasts are a bit more complicated. Some of the data from the Euro is subscription only and will change the times that you can access it for each run. Some sites allow you to access it faster than others. Many people on the board use the WSI subscription Euro, so that’s what we will outline here. The Euro has 2 runs for us here , 0z and 12z. Depending on where you access the ECWMF, will depend whether you can access 6 or 12 hour increments.
Euro (subscription services)
0z: 1:00am
12z: 1:00pm
Euro (Free services)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm
4.)UKMET (United Kindgom Meteorological Forecast Model) is issued at 00z, 12z On most sites it is a 72 hour model that is in 6 hour increments through 48 hours, and then 12 hour increments through 72 hours.(you can also get the Ukie out to 144 in 24 hour increments) It is also run at 06z and 18z but only goes out to 60 hours.
UKMET
0z: 11:30pm
12z: 11:30am
5.)GGEM (Global Environmental Multiscale Model) Forecasts are another out of country model. This one we get twice a day 12z and 00z.
GGEM
0z: 11:45pm
12z : 11:45am
6.)SREF(Short Range Ensemble Forecasts) are a set of ensembles that are issued 4 times a day at “off” hours. These are run at 03z, 09z 15z, and 21z and run though hour 87.
09z: 8:40am
15z: 2:40pm
21Z: 8:40pm
03z: 2:40am
What time is it?
Weather models are run in UTC, which is Coordinated Universal Time, this can also be referred to as Zulu time (hence the “Z”) which is military time, or GMT, Greenwich Mean Time
“UTC” Coordinated Universal Time = “Z” Zulu = “GMT” Greenwich Mean Time
Weather observations are also reported in this style.
0000z is midnight (@ the Greenwich Meridian)
1200z is noon (@ the Greenwich Meridian)
That’s great, but what time is it here?
Eastern Standard Time (winter) is 5 hours behind UTC
Ex 12z = 7am
00z= 7pm (Remembering that 00z is actually midnight)
During Eastern Daylight Savings (summer) is 4 hours behind the UTC
Ex 12z = 8am
00z = 8pm
LOCAL EDT EST
Midnight 400 500
1 a.m. 500 600
2 a.m. 600 700
3 a.m. 700 800
4 a.m. 800 900
5 a.m. 900 1000
6 a.m. 1000 1100
7 a.m. 1100 1200
8 a.m. 1200 1300
9 a.m. 1300 1400
10 a.m. 1400 1500
11 a.m. 1500 1600
NOON 1600 1700
1 p.m. 1700 1800
2 p.m. 1800 1900
3 p.m. 1900 2000
4 p.m. 2000 2100
5 p.m. 2100 2200
6 p.m. 2200 2300
7 p.m. 2300 2400
8 p.m. 2400 100
9 p.m. 100 200
10 p.m. 200 300
11 p.m. 300 400
LOCAL EDT EST
Ok, now that’s settled, what time can I see each model run?
This depends on the model. It is important to remember with model run timing that the time indicated is actually when the model begins its run for instance 12z starts to run at (Noon Greenwhich mean time) 7 EST. Some models are faster than others.
Here I will outline the NAM, GFS, Euro, UKMET, GGEM and SREF for you.
The following times are for EST.
1.)NAM( North American Mesoscale Model) Model forecasts are produced every six hours at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. Data is available in 6 hour incriments out to 84 hours.
NAM
0z: 8:45pm
6z: 2:45am
12z: 8:45am
18z: 2:45pm
2.)GFS (Global Forecast System) Model Forecasts are also produced every 6 hours. (00, 06, 12, & 18). Like the NAM they are available in 6 hour increments. Unline the NAM, the GFS is a longer range model and goes out to 384 hours.
GFS
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm
3.)ECWMF( The Euro) forecasts are a bit more complicated. Some of the data from the Euro is subscription only and will change the times that you can access it for each run. Some sites allow you to access it faster than others. Many people on the board use the WSI subscription Euro, so that’s what we will outline here. The Euro has 2 runs for us here , 0z and 12z. Depending on where you access the ECWMF, will depend whether you can access 6 or 12 hour increments.
Euro (subscription services)
0z: 1:00am
12z: 1:00pm
Euro (Free services)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm
4.)UKMET (United Kindgom Meteorological Forecast Model) is issued at 00z, 12z On most sites it is a 72 hour model that is in 6 hour increments through 48 hours, and then 12 hour increments through 72 hours.(you can also get the Ukie out to 144 in 24 hour increments) It is also run at 06z and 18z but only goes out to 60 hours.
UKMET
0z: 11:30pm
12z: 11:30am
5.)GGEM (Global Environmental Multiscale Model) Forecasts are another out of country model. This one we get twice a day 12z and 00z.
GGEM
0z: 11:45pm
12z : 11:45am
6.)SREF(Short Range Ensemble Forecasts) are a set of ensembles that are issued 4 times a day at “off” hours. These are run at 03z, 09z 15z, and 21z and run though hour 87.
09z: 8:40am
15z: 2:40pm
21Z: 8:40pm
03z: 2:40am
#2
Posted 01 February 2010 - 09:53 PM
Well done Megan. Hope this cuts back on what time does this or that model roll out questions in the threads
#8
Posted 01 February 2010 - 10:00 PM
wat about cras that model is good i think and also kma thanks a lit
#12
Posted 01 February 2010 - 10:13 PM
This was very helpful. What would also be helpful for us noobs is a pinned thread on the differences between the models. Or, if that's too complicated for a post, maybe a pinned thread with some links on where to read up on the models that is more trustworthy than say wikipedia. Most of us can read maps, but why is the Euro "Dr. No" or why is the NAM often considered too wet, etc. I'm a long time weather geek, but new to the model criticism.
#14
Posted 01 February 2010 - 10:17 PM
old time hockey, on 01 February 2010 - 10:13 PM, said:
This was very helpful. What would also be helpful for us noobs is a pinned thread on the differences between the models. Or, if that's too complicated for a post, maybe a pinned thread with some links on where to read up on the models that is more trustworthy than say wikipedia. Most of us can read maps, but why is the Euro "Dr. No" or why is the NAM often considered too wet, etc. I'm a long time weather geek, but new to the model criticism.
Here ya go, for starters. :)
http://www.crh.noaa....docu/models.php
http://www.hpc.ncep..../biastext.shtml
More on models - http://www.theweathe...ion.com/models/
#15
Posted 01 February 2010 - 10:22 PM
hard to believe so many people didn't know the "z" was zulu time.
#19
Posted 01 February 2010 - 10:44 PM
great post for newbies, one correction though Euro starts coming out on Plymouth about 1:00 am pm
#20
Posted 01 February 2010 - 10:50 PM
you forgot the KMA....lol.....j/k..........seriously thanks for the "layman's terms" info!!


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