[Calderon]

srainhoutx, on Apr 10 2009, 11:02 AM, said:

Stay safe folks. Very active day ahead.

Definetly not going to be a nice Good Friday for quite a few people.

[janetjanet998]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
945 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

MESOSCALE UPDATE

THUNDERSTORMS NOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INVOF CDFNT AND JUST
UPSTREAM OF THETA-E/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS IN WRN TN AND NWRN
MISS. CONVECTION IS CHARACTERIZED BY BKN LINE SEGMENTS MAINLY IN
WRN TN...WITH SOME ISOLD DISCRETE CELLS IN NWRN MISS AND AHEAD OF
THE BKN LINE IN TN. EXPECT TO SEE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND JUST ALONG THE FRONT AS
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING. BEST LOW-LVL
SHEAR CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH SFC WINDS MAINTAINING
AN ERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AND BOUNDARY LYR MIXING DEEPENS INTO THE DAY...SHOULD SEE
SFC WINDS VEER MORE SWRLY BY AFTN. THIS WILL REDUCE VERY LOW-LVL
SHEAR...BUT DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL STILL MAINTAIN A VERY RESPECTABLE
60-70KTS INTO THE AFTN. AS THE UPR WAVE/COLD POOL MOVE OVHD DURING
THE AFTN...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME QUITE STEEP...WITH LI'S AROUND
-8 TO -10C EXPECTED. WET-BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO BE
AROUND 7-8KFT AND GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...THINK VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN. IN FACT...HAIL UP TO BASEBALL SIZE IS
WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTN.

WHILE THE LOW-LVL SHEAR WILL DECREASE A LITTLE AS STATED
ABOVE...0-1KM HELICITY VALUES WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTN AS SFC BASED INSTABILITY
INCREASES.

[janetjanet998]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1007 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHWESTERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
SOUTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 1007 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FULTON...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

[srainhoutx]

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1006 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

TNC017-079-101545-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-090410T1545Z/
CARROLL TN-HENRY TN-
1006 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
HENRY AND CARROLL COUNTIES...

AT 959 AM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A WALL CLOUD ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF HUNTINGDON. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR
HUNTINGDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GARRETSBURG...BUENA VISTA...HENRY...HOLLOW ROCK...MIXIE...BRUCETON...
ROUTON...CREWS STORE...EPHESUS...VALE...MANSFIELD...VAN DYKE...SPRING
CREEK...SUNNYSIDE...MANLEYVILLE...SPRINGVILLE...OLD SPRINGVILLE AND
HAIGLER RIDGE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1000 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

KYZ001>003-005>009-011>013-101600-
LIVINGSTON-CALDWELL-MCCRACKEN-LYON-MARSHALL-TRIGG-CARLISLE-GRAVES-
HICKMAN-CALLOWAY-FULTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARDWELL...BENTON...CALVERT CITY...
CLINTON...EDDYVILLE...FULTON...MAYFIELD...MURRAY AND REIDLAND
900 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...
AT 957 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...
AND VERY STRONG WINDS 45 TO 55 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARLINGTON TO 11 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF CAYCE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED ACROSS
CALLOWAY COUNTY CENTERED ON THE CITY OF MURRAY. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH 11
AM...AND SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY. THE STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAY SOON BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES UPON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. COMMUNITIES
IMPACTED BY 11 AM INCLUDE...MAYFIELD...MURRAY...AND CADIZ.

[Calderon]

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1020 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
WESTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN STEWART COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 1019 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 32 MILES WEST OF
TENNESSEE RIDGE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH

[gkrangers]

:o

 1125.png (50.17K)
Number of downloads: 2

[Calderon]

WTVF Nashville coverage:

Click the link on the homepage on left side of screen.
http://www.wtvf.com/

[Yoda]

Supercell composite on 1500 mesoanalysis out of SPC is already 16 in W AL/E MS and a pocket of 20 in NE MS... sig hail parameter is 3 in the same areas... Derecho composite of 6 in MS with a pocket of 8... 3km EHI of 6 and 1km EHI of 6 in Eastern MS with VGP of greater than 0.3...

Sig TOR fixed layer Parameter is 6 in Eastern MS entering NW AL... :axe:

[Yoda]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1028 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 1026 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MAYFIELD...OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF FULTON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MAYFIELD BY 1045 AM CDT...

[Calderon]

Storm just north of Camden, TN will head for general area of Clarksville in about a hour to hour and a half.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101530Z - 101630Z

THREAT FOR MAINLY HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS
WITH STORMS OVER N CNTRL KY. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...A WW MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE
THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE.

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT
ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AND IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS N
CNTRL KY. ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER...BUT IS ON NRN FRINGE OF THE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND THE NWD ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON
IN WAKE OF THE ELEVATED STORMS. ANY SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL
RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER TODAY WHEN
A WW MAY BE NECESSARY.

..DIAL.. 04/10/2009


ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...PAH...

[tornadotony]

The 12z KJAN sounding has an analog to the 5/4/03 21z Kansas City sounding...

[Calderon]

tornadotony, on Apr 10 2009, 11:45 AM, said:

The 12z KJAN sounding has an analog to the 5/4/03 21z Kansas City sounding...

Dear lord. :lightning:

That profile is incredible, and KBMX is pretty nice too.


KBNA's is just all f*cked up for some reason, they should release a special balloon.

[INVAR]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
KYC035-083-157-101615-
/O.NEW.KPAH.******.W.0068.090410T1551Z-090410T1615Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1051 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CALLOWAY COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
EXTREME EASTERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...
MARSHALL COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 1049 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BENTON...OR 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MAYFIELD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
6 MILES SOUTH OF BENTON BY 1115 AM CDT...

THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...ROTATION WITHIN THE
STORM HAS DECREASED...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WESTERN KENTUCKY.

[janetjanet998]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN THROUGH MIDDLE TN...WRN THROUGH S CNTRL
KY...NRN MS AND NRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...

VALID 101553Z - 101730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131 CONTINUES.

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CONTINUES
ACROSS A PORTION OF WRN TN...WRN KY AND NRN MS. THE THREAT WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO MIDDLE TN...S CNTRL KY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT PARTS OF NRN AL
WHERE A NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

STORMS THAT ORIGINALLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT HAVE MOSTLY
DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...NEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN WRM SECTOR OVER
WRN TN AND NRN MS ALONG CLOUD STREETS WITHIN WARM SECTOR JUST EAST
OF THIS BOUNDARY. DESPITE MORE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH NWD EXTENT INTO
KY...COLD TEMPERATURE ALONG WILL MAINTAIN ADEQUATE INSTABILITY.
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
FROM MS NEWD THROUGH WRN AL INTO WRN AND MIDDLE TN. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD ADVANCING VORT MAX...NWD ADVECTION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION NEXT FEW HOURS. BULK SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIN

[Calderon]

WSMV:
http://www.wsmv.com/...4406/index.html

WKRN:

Click link on top left part of page.
http://www.wkrn.com/

[gkrangers]

I think we're about to end up with 3-4 tornadic supercells all lined up across TN.

[janetjanet998]

going to stage 2 in my sig after this


maturing supercell will affect south nashville metro with 1-2 hours




ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1107 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
MCNAIRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL NOON CDT

* AT 1108 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR SELMER...MOVING EAST
AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ADAMSVILLE.

[kush]

anxiously awaiting things here in carrollton, GA...boy did i pick the right day to be off of work.

[ScottL]

Things here in Macon are still fairly cloudy, there are some occasional breaks and the sun gets through from time to time, but things still feel fairly cool here. It's not as cloudy as it was earlier this morning, though. It doesn't feel like 70 degrees, which is what the regional airport METAR is reporting.

Aaaaaaand of course as soon as I type this, the sun gets an extended show. If this continues, the temps should rise. Dewpoint is approaching 60.