[Jim Hughes]

Some of us have been talking about the possible warmth ahead but I wanted to zero in on a more narrower, and extended time frame. So here it goes...

I firmly believe that we are going to see a signifcant warming trend developing in the east after the first few days in March. This trend should last at least one week and this will show up in the temperature anomaly average for the below stated time period.

I think this warming trend is to occur between March 3rd - 10th. I am expecting to see at least one 70-75 degree day, (Or +15 mean anomaly) , and I wouldn't rule out two, or even a high close to 80 degrees.

I am also expecting to see at least two daily +10 mean anomaly days. And the overall temperature average for this eight day period should end up being at least +5.0 (+40 cumulative). And this could be a conservative call. I am going to use the three local airports in the Baltimore - Washington area as a measuring stick but I expect this warming trend to be seen elswhere around the east coast.

If I had to pick a specifc day for the warmest temperature. It would be March 8th.

I might also add on some additonal forecasts in the next day or so in regards to severe weather potentials. As in tornadic activity, regional locations, and maybe a smaller three day period. But I am unsure about this since I have alot going on right now. Family wise.

I will also add the daily high/low/mean for the three local airports, for the above period, if I get a chance later today.

[gibbsfreeenergy]

Weekend Clipper....glory's last shot for many

[thetavsubrho]

gibbsfreeenergy, on Feb 17 2009, 10:09 AM, said:

Weekend Clipper....glory's last shot for many

Reminds me of the PGA championship.

[gibbsfreeenergy]

Observed:

http://www.bom.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif

Forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ensplume_full.gif

[rainshadow]

Thoroughly entrenched within the circle of death.

[sarwx2.0]

Jim Hughes, on Feb 17 2009, 09:00 AM, said:

Some of us have been talking about the possible warmth ahead but I wanted to zero in on a more narrower, and extended time frame. So here it goes...

I firmly believe that we are going to see a signifcant warming trend developing in the east after the first few days in March. This trend should last at least one week and this will show up in the temperature anomaly average for the below stated time period.

I think this warming trend is to occur between March 3rd - 10th. I am expecting to see at least one 70-75 degree day, (Or +15 mean anomaly) , and I wouldn't rule out two, or even a high close to 80 degrees.

I am also expecting to see at least two daily +10 mean anomaly days. And the overall temperature average for this eight day period should end up being at least +5.0 (+40 cumulative). And this could be a conservative call. I am going to use the three local airports in the Baltimore - Washington area as a measuring stick but I expect this warming trend to be seen elswhere around the east coast.

If I had to pick a specifc day for the warmest temperature. It would be March 8th.

I might also add on some additonal forecasts in the next day or so in regards to severe weather potentials. As in tornadic activity, regional locations, and maybe a smaller three day period. But I am unsure about this since I have alot going on right now. Family wise.

I will also add the daily high/low/mean for the three local airports, for the above period, if I get a chance later today.

Either we're looking at the same general stuff... or I just like you this winter... but once again, I support this thread!

:sun:

[CT Blizz]

Joe D'aleo

[rainshadow]

sarwx2.0, on Feb 17 2009, 10:13 AM, said:

Either we're looking at the same general stuff... or I just like you this winter... but once again, I support this thread!

:sun:

I thought at the least you'd disrespectfully agree.

It does fit the late forming/peaking nina M.O. for March (warmer than normal).

[capes]

gibbsfreeenergy, on Feb 17 2009, 10:09 AM, said:

Weekend Clipper....glory's last shot for many

more than likely....not a great shot either. still can can snow in mid-late march in the MA. but by then its like who cares its gone an hour after it falls anyway.

[sarwx2.0]

rainshadow, on Feb 17 2009, 09:16 AM, said:

I thought at the least you'd disrespectfully agree.

It does fit the late forming/peaking nina M.O. for March (warmer than normal).

:thumbsup:

[Jim Hughes]

gibbsfreeenergy, on Feb 17 2009, 10:09 AM, said:

Weekend Clipper....glory's last shot for many

The window of oppurtunity is obviously getting smaller, and it will be closing even further south of 40, if my thoughts are correct. But I also know that there is still plenty of time to squeak one out. And it wouldn't take much to put a smile on some faces around here when you consider how bad this winter has been anway. So I'm going to stay on the blindly optimistic side with my snow lover friends. :snowman:

[Jim Hughes]

sarwx2.0, on Feb 17 2009, 10:13 AM, said:

Either we're looking at the same general stuff ... or I just like you this winter... but once again, I support this thread!

:sun:

Hmm...I think this is the second or thid time that we have agreed in the past month or two. :thumbsup:

I wonder what gives? OTOH there's only so many things a couple of good long range forecaster can look at...... :)........ :bike:

[Jim Hughes]

CT Blizz, on Feb 17 2009, 10:14 AM, said:

Joe D'aleo

I think he's going the opposite way if I read the board comments correctly last night. But maybe I am mistaken and someone can correct me if I am wrong.

[Jim Hughes]

rainshadow, on Feb 17 2009, 10:16 AM, said:

I thought at the least you'd disrespectfully agree.

It does fit the late forming/peaking nina M.O. for March (warmer than normal).

Tony, I didn't go over your recent Nina analogs with a fine tooth comb but I liked your way of thinking FWIW.

[BucksCO_PA]

march 8th is the earliest 80 degree day on record at philly, an even 80 back in 2000

[Eastern Blizzard of 78]

Jim Hughes, on Feb 17 2009, 10:00 AM, said:

Some of us have been talking about the possible warmth ahead but I wanted to zero in on a more narrower, and extended time frame. So here it goes...

I firmly believe that we are going to see a signifcant warming trend developing in the east after the first few days in March. This trend should last at least one week and this will show up in the temperature anomaly average for the below stated time period.

I think this warming trend is to occur between March 3rd - 10th. I am expecting to see at least one 70-75 degree day, (Or +15 mean anomaly) , and I wouldn't rule out two, or even a high close to 80 degrees.

I am also expecting to see at least two daily +10 mean anomaly days. And the overall temperature average for this eight day period should end up being at least +5.0 (+40 cumulative). And this could be a conservative call. I am going to use the three local airports in the Baltimore - Washington area as a measuring stick but I expect this warming trend to be seen elswhere around the east coast.

If I had to pick a specifc day for the warmest temperature. It would be March 8th.

I might also add on some additonal forecasts in the next day or so in regards to severe weather potentials. As in tornadic activity, regional locations, and maybe a smaller three day period. But I am unsure about this since I have alot going on right now. Family wise.

I will also add the daily high/low/mean for the three local airports, for the above period, if I get a chance later today.

This appears to buckle the projection given by Brett Anderson of Accuweather on February 13th although the info that he used may now be outdated. IMO, "if" we're gonna warm up through the 10th lets keep it going, write off this winter, and end the pain of anticipation. :popcorn:

[adk]

Would this ridging on the East Coast be matched by a trough on the west coast and stormy west coast pattern? I hardly remember an east coast warm up in the winter or spring that wasn't matched by cold western temperatures and above average precipitation for that area.

[Ian]

bring it on!

[metfan4life]

Jim Hughes, on Feb 17 2009, 10:00 AM, said:

I think this warming trend is to occur between March 3rd - 10th. I am expecting to see at least one 70-75 degree day, (Or +15 mean anomaly) , and I wouldn't rule out two, or even a high close to 80 degrees.

I would take this. I love the winter but I want to see a big snowstorm already. I am ready for baseball and warmer weather.

[gobluehens]

Bring on Spring and the Phils because this was one of the worst winters of all time.