[NorEaster27]

the only good wind is 330-350 ;)

[Oswego LE]

maps...maps people please!!!

[Lake Effect King]

Oswego LE, on Nov 20 2008, 09:16 AM, said:

maps...maps people please!!!

Settle down Beavis! ;) After 12z suite....around noon or just after.....Oswego should do well through Sun....

[Southland Wx]

Hmm... anyone else completely dejected over the 12Z NAM? The streamline flow at 925 is...okay...not quite perfect, but acceptable. Then you have what looks like a shortwave embedded on Saturday morning, right at prime time, which would keep the band moving, spread the love, but also cut back on snow totals. Secondly, BUFKIT showing shear values extremely unfavorable at the moment. This represents a rather significant shift from prior runs which were a bit less harsh on shear. I definitely need to see the MM5, the initial setup on the Buffalo WRF and our in-house model before I feel confident pegging any accumulation zones.

PS: I'm talking mostly east of areas hit the other night, the Mohawk Valley and just south. IMBY post :lol:

[Southland Wx]

Any thoughts on where the band in S Ontario is coming from? Lake Nipissing?

6 Hr QPF 18Z Fri-00Z Sat
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mm/wrf/wrf_precip06_F36.gif

Interesting QPF distribution on this by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Favoring a N Oneida/S Lewis hit again initially...could we be talking about C Oneida and Oswego this time?

[Lake Effect King]

Utica WX, on Nov 20 2008, 11:49 AM, said:

Any thoughts on where the band in S Ontario is coming from? Lake Nipissing?

6 Hr QPF 18Z Fri-00Z Sat
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mm/wrf/wrf_precip06_F36.gif

Interesting QPF distribution on this by tomorrow afternoon/evening. Favoring a N Oneida/S Lewis hit again initially...could we be talking about C Oneida and Oswego this time?

That is a very odd output, wrt the positions of the bands...I'd still favor a N. Onondaga Co....to Madison Co...position...at this time....let's see what some other meso's are doing....

[snowsourceleds]

Matt

So i may get some action after all...

[Southland Wx]

snowsourceleds, on Nov 20 2008, 12:05 PM, said:

Matt

So i may get some action after all...

I wouldn't get my hopes too high. This is a severe outlier at the moment.

[Logan11]

Maybe we can get a few decent bands to give us an inch or two way over here. It usually happens a number of times per winter. This is the first time the wind direction looks hopeful this season for the Down the Mohawk Valley trajectory. Of course it may shift more into the northwest Catskills and leave us north of it....


And the models virtually never show any qpf here from LES. This far from the lake they don't believe it will happen I guess, but when the bands are good...it does get in here barely.

PS: I'm talking mostly east of areas hit the other night, the Mohawk Valley and just south. IMBY post :lol:
[/quote]

[MGorse]

Utica WX, on Nov 20 2008, 11:49 AM, said:

Any thoughts on where the band in S Ontario is coming from? Lake Nipissing?

Could that be the model overdoing a narrow area of channelized vorticity? It does look odd where it is placing that narrow band in southern Ontario.

[Oswego LE]

The forcasters here dont seam so sure now, but the heavy snow IMO may hang back til Sat. Night Sunday morning timeframe. I am starting to lose confidence but time will tell. None the less, looks like a good dump and I believe its safe to say portions will end up with over a foot when all is said and done Sunday afternoon.

[beavis1729]

Lake Effect King, on Nov 20 2008, 09:07 AM, said:

Settle down Beavis! ;) After 12z suite....around noon or just after.....Oswego should do well through Sun....

:D

[Lake Effect King]

http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/4104/nysmap2iz0.png

[LES_CHASER007]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/public/style_images/ed2/snapback.png' alt='View Post' />Lake Effect King, on Nov 20 2008, 01:15 PM, said:

I agree BIG TIME!! Although I think somewhere in the 6-12" area that some lucky area will recieve upwards of 18"+. Great map LEK and I will be issuing one as well soon. Mine won't be as pretty :arrowhead: but nonetheless will be readable :thumbsup:.

LEK do you know where I can get a map from so I can do a forecast?

[Lake Effect King]

LES_CHASER007, on Nov 20 2008, 01:19 PM, said:

I agree BIG TIME!! Although I think somewhere in the 6-12" area that some lucky area will recieve upwards of 18"+. Great map LEK and I will be issuing one as well soon. Mine won't be as pretty :arrowhead: but nonetheless will be readable :thumbsup:.

LEK do you know where I can get a map from so I can do a forecast?

http://www.oneidalak...g/nys-map-2.gif ;)

[Oswego LE]

I really dont agree with your Erie totals at all, think they will be much much higher. some places over there will get 2 feet plus. But other than that, looks reasonable besides the fact 6-12 inch plus is a really safe window.

[Lake Effect King]

I must say, off L. Erie...I think there will be some VERY big totals....but I'm not sure if it will be in NYS or not....so I left it conservative, for now....I'm not REALLY big on this event off Ontario...note the totals are over 2.5 days.....the final totals will be a cumulative series of "bursts" of heavy snow....I'd say the max we'll see from anyone in the "+" area is 16".....over that period.

[LES_CHASER007]

Thanks LEK, but there seems to be a square box encompassing Oswego, Onondaga, Madison and parets of Oneida counties. Is there a way for me to remove this box King?

[eyewall94]

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/public/style_images/ed2/snapback.png' alt='View Post' />Lake Effect King, on Nov 20 2008, 01:15 PM, said:

I like your map alot. I right on the border of 2-6 inch range. I'd be happy with 2 inches :thumbsup:

Shows how much of a desperate :weenie: I am

[LES_CHASER007]

One other question I have LEK is how do I draw an elipse but on a diagonal? Do you do your shapes by hand or do you use some type of program such as paint?