[msalgado]

These aren't even true wobbles. That eye is just so broken that it appears like it wobbles more than it does.

[CUmet]

Regardless of whether the eye center passes just west, directly over, or just east of Galveston...I think the rightward jog that has occurred basically ensures that Galveston will miss the core of the highest storm surge. Remember, the region of maximum surge is actually pretty significantly further to the right of where the eye makes landfall, and this has been shown in the SLOSH runs. The previous SLOSH run had 16 ft over Galveston, with the eye passing just SW of Galveston...but with the latest NHC track being just east of Galveston, the surge projection dropped down to 14 ft.

Galveston will still experience significant flooding, don't get me wrong, but the absolute worst of the surge is almost certainly going to be farther east...affecting the Port Arthur/Beaumont/Orange area.

[msalgado]

Also, missing Galveston to the east is great for Galveston, but horrible for Port A who has a shorter sea wall and a lot of refining capacity of its own.

[WEATHER53]

The water at the seawall seems to be splashing over it in the same manner it did 10-12 hours ago. Why has there been a lack of increase in the amount and depth of the water coming over the wall? Is it because it was high tide earlier and now lower or some other factor?

[WxOrKnot]

WEATHER53, on Sep 13 2008, 12:29 AM, said:

The water at the seawall seems to be splashing over it in the same manner it did 10-12 hours ago. Why has there been a lack of increase in the amount and depth of the water coming over the wall? Is it because it was high tide earlier and now lower or some other factor?

It's a little hard to read because I lost formatting in the copy/paste, but you get the idea.



Tides for Galveston Pleasure Pier starting with September 12, 2008.

Day High Tide Height Sunrise Moon Time % Moon
/Low Time Feet Sunset Visible

F 12 High 3:15 AM 2.2 7:03 AM Set 4:15 AM 87
12 Low 8:33 AM 1.8 7:27 PM Rise 5:56 PM
12 High 11:40 AM 2.1
12 Low 8:08 PM 0.4

Sa 13 High 3:19 AM 2.2 7:03 AM Set 5:15 AM 93
13 Low 8:37 AM 1.7 7:26 PM Rise 6:28 PM
13 High 12:59 PM 2.1
13 Low 8:44 PM 0.5

[blueheronNC]

Galveston right now is in the position that Charleston was in for Hurricane Hugo. They had water in the streets, but not the eastern eyewall, which would have completely destroyed the historic city.

So...20,000 Galveston residents will be very happy they stayed this one out...and even more emboldened the next time around. Just great.

[Swiscaster]

DTwxrisk, on Sep 13 2008, 12:17 AM, said:

you tried to make this argument several hours ago...

it was wrong then and its wrong now

Well, let's wait and see. I understand there can be wobbles, but I would say that in the past hour or two, there has been more of a northerly component, which, if it continued, would take the eye directly over Galveston, resulting in the scenario that I presented (not "argued"). This would definitely lessen the water rise on Galveston Island and into Galveston Bay (the rise would still be significant, just not as bad).

[snowflake22]

OHweather, on Sep 13 2008, 12:23 AM, said:

Surge up to almost 11' at Galveston now...
Now, I know that we are only a couple hours from landfall but, a very small change in track could make the difference between a 10-15' storm surge and a 20'+ storm surge for Galveston...over the last hour or so I have Ike moving on a more NNW heading... around 330...if this continues it would go just east of Galveston, and Galveston would be saved the devestaiting surge...although it would still see (already is seeing) 10-15' of surge. IMO I believe this isn't a wobble and it is the long awaited turn to the north. This is supported by pressure falls being more to the north over the last three hours:

So, with that being said I believe Ike will take this kind of a motion over the next several hours, with maybe a slight wobble one way or another:

So, with that being said...if that verifies perfectly...Galveston would never get into the SE winds for any extended period of time...however...there still has been a lot of water piled up out ahead of Ike...so...even though Galveston won't get the perfect set up for a devestating surge...all the water piled up out ahead of Ike will go somewhere...so I think Galveston will get around 15' of surge...that is very close to the height of the sea wall...so with waves on top of that I think there will be some water over the sea wall, but not an inundation. As for the portions of Galveston not protected by the Sea Wall...they are already flooded and they will likely get another few feet of water as the inner eye wall moves over them over the next 1-2 hours.

As for areas just east of Galveston...if that track verifies Galveston bay gets the 20-25' surge, and areas up the coast from there still get up to 20'...so...Galveston seems to be the cut off point...down the coast from it the surge is 15'> (although there still will be significant flooding from it)...and up the coast from Galveston sees the extreme surge, locally up to 25'.

If the destruction isn't absolute and unrelenting on Galveston Island, we will see hordes of complacent people next time... very sad that it takes devastation to halt complacency.

Good synopsis... this is VERY bad for SE Texas (NE of Galveston) and SW Louisiana, as I originally suspected.

[ptb127]

Galveston is getting rocked

[msalgado]

I'm pretty fascinated by those vorticity spinning off of the eyewall. As Tip said earlier, those seem likely to generate tornadoes or be like tornadoes themselves.

[Typhoon_Tip]

DTwxrisk, on Sep 13 2008, 12:21 AM, said:

correct... the new inner eyewall I did NOT see yet when I said the edge of the eyewall has hit G Bay

yeah, cool i suspected that. buuut, Dave, i'm not sure what this inner cage has going for it.. I don't like subsidiary vortex appeal to it though - not sure what that's all about and what they're going to get.

In any event, long haul...I think 11mph is generous.

[Ginx snewx]

CUmet, on Sep 13 2008, 12:27 AM, said:

Regardless of whether the eye center passes just west, directly over, or just east of Galveston...I think the rightward jog that has occurred basically ensures that Galveston will miss the core of the highest storm surge. Remember, the region of maximum surge is actually pretty significantly further to the right of where the eye makes landfall, and this has been shown in the SLOSH runs. The previous SLOSH run had 16 ft over Galveston, with the eye passing just SW of Galveston...but with the latest NHC track being just east of Galveston, the surge projection dropped down to 14 ft.

Galveston will still experience significant flooding, don't get me wrong, but the absolute worst of the surge is almost certainly going to be farther east...affecting the Port Arthur/Beaumont/Orange area.

Just as predicted this AM, the problem Galveston faces is the West end is unprotected and the North side is the Bay.

[Taxidermista]

WxOrKnot, on Sep 13 2008, 06:30 AM, said:

It's a little hard to read because I lost formatting in the copy/paste, but you get the idea.

Use the code tags:

Day		High	  Tide  Height   Sunrise	Moon  Time	  % Moon
		   /Low	  Time	Feet	Sunset					Visible

F   12	 High   3:15 AM	 2.2   7:03 AM	 Set  4:15 AM	  87
	12	  Low   8:33 AM	 1.8   7:27 PM	Rise  5:56 PM
	12	 High  11:40 AM	 2.1
	12	  Low   8:08 PM	 0.4

Sa  13	 High   3:19 AM	 2.2   7:03 AM	 Set  5:15 AM	  93
	13	  Low   8:37 AM	 1.7   7:26 PM	Rise  6:28 PM
	13	 High  12:59 PM	 2.1
	13	  Low   8:44 PM	 0.5

[WEATHER53]

WxOrKnot, on Sep 13 2008, 12:30 AM, said:

It's a little hard to read because I lost formatting in the copy/paste, but you get the idea.
Tides for Galveston Pleasure Pier starting with September 12, 2008.

Day High Tide Height Sunrise Moon Time % Moon
/Low Time Feet Sunset Visible

F 12 High 3:15 AM 2.2 7:03 AM Set 4:15 AM 87
12 Low 8:33 AM 1.8 7:27 PM Rise 5:56 PM
12 High 11:40 AM 2.1
12 Low 8:08 PM 0.4

Sa 13 High 3:19 AM 2.2 7:03 AM Set 5:15 AM 93
13 Low 8:37 AM 1.7 7:26 PM Rise 6:28 PM
13 High 12:59 PM 2.1
13 Low 8:44 PM 0.5

Yes, that answers it then. Low at around 8pm so real problems should begin soon with a high around 3am.

[kylben]

Here's a nice all-in-one page of surge obs compared to tide levels

http://www.brendanlo.../ike/tides.html

[snowflake22]

snowflake22, on Sep 13 2008, 12:32 AM, said:

If the destruction isn't absolute and unrelenting on Galveston Island, we will see hordes of complacent people next time... very sad that it takes devastation to halt complacency.

Good synopsis... this is VERY bad for SE Texas (NE of Galveston) and SW Louisiana, as I originally suspected.

Originally, some people anticipated 20' on Galveston Island... based on trends, it may not exceed 15'.

[MalakianOne]

The bay has meet the gulf, water rising fast... Per ABC13

[Ginx snewx]

ABC 13 entire blocks on fire

[Calderon]

blueheronNC, on Sep 13 2008, 12:30 AM, said:

Galveston right now is in the position that Charleston was in for Hurricane Hugo. They had water in the streets, but not the eastern eyewall, which would have completely destroyed the historic city.

So...20,000 Galveston residents will be very happy they stayed this one out...and even more emboldened the next time around. Just great.

That depends if they don't get burned alive in the fires.

[Typhoon_Tip]

snowflake22, on Sep 13 2008, 12:32 AM, said:

If the destruction isn't absolute and unrelenting on Galveston Island, we will see hordes of complacent people next time... very sad that it takes devastation to halt complacency.

Excellent point! 'You're only as good as your last at bat'. Same idea applies here, this bad consequences. Then, some day, some where, the locals act surprised.

I think for people living in threat prone areas there should be mandatory course work to force their mind to wrap around that kind if diluting.