[OSUmetstud]

102 kt peak flight level wind (but very far center - 999 mb)

[Solak]

18:25:00

From 148° at 98 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 112.7 mph)

[Justin]

paul e, on Sep 11 2008, 01:39 PM, said:

Hmmm.. anybody else think ike may have some surprises left for us before landfall, both in terms of strength AND direction?

Possibly, but IMO, not likely.

[thegreatdr]

Wouldn't land interaction be interfering with the peripheral inflow as well?

DR

Cheeznado, on Sep 11 2008, 01:35 PM, said:

The large size, yes, that has been inhibiting the storm's strength. But I dispute the idea that land is interfering with the storm- only the outer fringes of the outflow are over land right now, I do not see how that could be affecting the strength. Now saying it will not weaken of stay steady from here on out, but right now I am not sure land is the culprit...

[edtrac]

It is truly awe inspiring that with the computing power of the day, we still do not have have analytical tools to determine the evolution of a hurricane. How far apart are the data points in these models? 25,50 miles?

[Lookout]

12z euro...

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[MN transplant]

OSUmetstud, on Sep 11 2008, 02:42 PM, said:

102 kt peak flight level wind (but very far center - 999 mb)

100 miles out.

[Terpeast]

MN transplant, on Sep 11 2008, 01:45 PM, said:

100 miles out.

Goes to show that the track doesn't really matter in terms of wind if you're within 100 miles of it. But the track could be very important for storm surge.

And I think it's slowly strengthening, very slowly. The pressure and wind fields, as we saw yesterday, were out of balance... I think they're in the process of "meeting halfway" to strike a balance. Wouldn't be surprised to see it intensify to 110-115 mph

[edtrac]

Terpeast, on Sep 11 2008, 02:46 PM, said:

Goes to show that the track doesn't really matter in terms of wind if you're within 100 miles of it. But the track could be very important for storm surge.

can us laymen view recon data realtime?

[Ian]

BeauDodson, on Sep 11 2008, 02:30 PM, said:

Isn't the drier air on the outskirts and away from the hurricane actually from subsidence?

I think so.

[Terpeast]

edtrac, on Sep 11 2008, 01:47 PM, said:

can us laymen view recon data realtime?

I think so, but I just wait for others to post it here :whistle:

[OSUmetstud]

edtrac, on Sep 11 2008, 01:47 PM, said:

can us laymen view recon data realtime?

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[MN transplant]

edtrac, on Sep 11 2008, 02:47 PM, said:

can us laymen view recon data realtime?

Download Google Earth if you don't have it, and go here: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[Brent]

Lookout, on Sep 11 2008, 01:43 PM, said:

12z euro...

I'm starting to think this is going to be east of Galveston.

[ADKwx]

paul e, on Sep 11 2008, 01:39 PM, said:

Hmmm.. anybody else think ike may have some surprises left for us before landfall, both in terms of strength AND direction?

I think everything will go exactly as planned. :lol:

Seriously, I feel like giving up on intensity, but am having a hard time believing that it will just hold or gradually weaken from here to landfall. I feel better about landfall location. One would think after the models have oscillated south forever, then back to the north/east, they would come back a bit at some point...but I don't think they will much if at all from where they are now.

[PennyForYourThoughts]

Watching ABC out of Houston, they just did a live shot of Galveston beach..water already getting up to the foot of the stilts the homes are situated on. Commentators say there is usually anywhere from 50 to 100 ft of beach front. And we are HOW many hours before landfall? amazing. Really concerned much more about the water at this point than the winds.

[Brent]

Snowmax, on Sep 11 2008, 01:33 PM, said:

LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING HIGH TIDE. PERSONS NOT HEEDING
EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY HOMES WILL
FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION
DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD AND
DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE. VEHICLES
LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS WILL BE
SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE FLOOD PRONE
COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY EXCEED 9 FEET
FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN MULTI-STORY
FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORSENED BY
BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY DAMAGE...WITH
MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF BLOCK
CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

http://www.nhc.noaa....US84-KHGX.shtml

:o :o :o

Reminds me of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weat..._Orleans_region

[snowman21]

Justin, on Sep 11 2008, 02:41 PM, said:

There are now quite a few warmer cloud tops getting spiraled in to the center. That would be a bad trend for Ike, plus central pressure is up. Im liking my call more and more now of 95-110mph at landfall. That dry air from the NW is now all the way into the South side of the center. That, I would imagine, should continue some short term rises in pressure. Winds likely wont change to much. This is not going to reach MH status. Mark my words.

You may be right. Unless something earth shattering happens in the next hour or so, I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC start the slow reduction in landfall wind speeds, say a 5kt decrease on each of the next few advisories. That would be a relatively minor tweak to their forecast compared to the calls of cat 4 by others in the private sector.

[MallowTheCloud]

My fifth and final Ikecast:
http://img151.imageshack.us/img151/945/ikecast5wm9.gif

[janetjanet998]

huge

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