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http://www.nrlmry.na...es/tc_home.html

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/in...al922008.invest

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NHC
invest_al922008.invest

AL, 92, 2008081006, , BEST, 0, 108N, 413W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

I'd have to think 93L will not be far behind!

Yeah...the 0Z GFS is much more bullish with the next disturbance east of 92. We'll see.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH.

I think the initial focus was on the impressive area to the SW of the Cape Verde Islands yesterday evening. While this future invest was relatively tiny.

SHIPS guidance takes 92L up to 96 kt in 120 hours...

Floater is now over the system. http://www.ssd.noaa....ROP/float1.html

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SUN 10 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-071

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

There's some easterly shear over 92L ATTM. You can see the low level turning between 10-11 N and around 43W on visible satellite imagery. Looks like the probable LLC is in the eastern edge of the convection. There's a developing anticyclone aloft just to the northeast of 92L...if it stacks on top of it, that would mark the beginning of some significant intensification.

Not sure if the analog track image will come up. http://moe.met.fsu.e...008_analogs.png

Wide view-- looks pretty good:

 avn_l.jpg (159.13K)
Number of downloads: 1

I'm impressed. Looks like it's trying to develop. Here's hoping for an active period ahead!

Hmmmmm.

 al922008_inten.png (15.41K)
Number of downloads: 4

12Z GFS has 92 approaching the northern islands in 72 hours, albeit weak. It's still developing the next disturbance into a strong cyclone.

Continues to improve organization wise.NHC might go with a TD could form during the next day or two.

Updated UKMET....

 DTwxrisk, on Aug 10 2008, 01:34 PM, said:

It's still kinda broad.

I think a TD will be declared sometime tomorrow. It's definitely well on its way.