Warning: session_start(): Cannot send session cookie - headers already sent by (output started at /home3/eastern/public_html/bb/conf_global.php:1) in /home3/eastern/public_html/bb/admin/sources/base/ipsRegistry.php on line 486

Warning: session_start(): Cannot send session cache limiter - headers already sent (output started at /home3/eastern/public_html/bb/conf_global.php:1) in /home3/eastern/public_html/bb/admin/sources/base/ipsRegistry.php on line 486

Warning: Illegal string offset 'html' in /home3/eastern/public_html/bb/cache/skin_cache/cacheid_1/skin_topic.php on line 909

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home3/eastern/public_html/bb/conf_global.php:1) in /home3/eastern/public_html/bb/admin/sources/classes/output/formats/html/htmlOutput.php on line 114

Warning: Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home3/eastern/public_html/bb/conf_global.php:1) in /home3/eastern/public_html/bb/admin/sources/classes/output/formats/html/htmlOutput.php on line 127
Latest NAO, PNA and EPO Forecasts - Eastern US Weather Forums

Jump to content


Latest NAO, PNA and EPO Forecasts


12 replies to this topic

#1 ElTacoman

  • Members
  • 6,256 posts
  • Location:Arvada, CO

Posted 11 January 2008 - 04:11 PM

So I posted this in the Analogs For Coming Period thread, but since no one seems to want to read that, thought it might be a good idea to create a new thread. I briefly discussed what these might mean for the upcoming period in the other thread.



This doesn't really seem to match up well with the MJO phases that we should be entering, so I would be interested in hearing some feedback from those who know more about the MJO and how it relates to these indices.

#2 mitchnick

  • Members
  • 16,497 posts
  • Location:Linthicum Heights, MD

Posted 11 January 2008 - 04:18 PM

PAC rules

#3 lyngo

  • Members
  • 957 posts
  • Location:Nashville, TN

Posted 11 January 2008 - 04:25 PM

I think we'll be seeing those PNA & NAO ensembles fluctuating quite a bit over the next few days. But as Mitchnick said....PAC rules and it has most of this winter.

#4 madscientist

  • Members
  • 1,908 posts
  • Location:Northwoods (STL County), MO

Posted 11 January 2008 - 04:27 PM

Love that strongly negative EPO.

#5 blizzard00

    slow and steady

  • Members
  • 2,349 posts
  • Location:Greenwich, CT

Posted 11 January 2008 - 04:29 PM

cold but not stormy for the east

#6 beavis1729

  • Members
  • 1,819 posts
  • Location:Carol Stream, IL

Posted 11 January 2008 - 04:31 PM

Not sure about the various indices in the first post of this thread. But the modeled cold has definitely backed off...today's 12z GFS barely has sub-500 thicknesses N of MN/ND, whereas yesterday's 12z GFS had thicknesses in the 470s/480s in the same area. Still chilly, but not frigid.

#7 ElTacoman

  • Members
  • 6,256 posts
  • Location:Arvada, CO

Posted 11 January 2008 - 04:34 PM

View Postmadscientist, on Jan 11 2008, 02:27 PM, said:

Love that strongly negative EPO.


Yes, that strong of a signal virtually ensures that large areas of the lower 48 are going to get nailed.

#8 ElTacoman

  • Members
  • 6,256 posts
  • Location:Arvada, CO

Posted 11 January 2008 - 04:37 PM

View Postbeavis1729, on Jan 11 2008, 02:31 PM, said:

Not sure about the various indices in the first post of this thread. But the modeled cold has definitely backed off...today's 12z GFS barely has sub-500 thicknesses N of MN/ND, whereas yesterday's 12z GFS had thicknesses in the 470s/480s in the same area. Still chilly, but not frigid.


Chicago looks to go into the icebox no matter what, at least for awhile. :snowman:

#9 madscientist

  • Members
  • 1,908 posts
  • Location:Northwoods (STL County), MO

Posted 11 January 2008 - 04:52 PM

View PostElTacoman, on Jan 11 2008, 03:34 PM, said:

Yes, that strong of a signal virtually ensures that large areas of the lower 48 are going to get nailed.


I would think that negative EPOs are good for Colorado, am I correct?

#10 StormchaserChuck

    Question everything

  • Professional Forecaster
  • 28,483 posts
  • Location:about 10 miles NW of Bel Air, MD

Posted 11 January 2008 - 04:53 PM

I don't know if the NAO forecast will verify.. a lot of models have been trending toward more of a neutral/negative NAO in the medium range. A lot depends on the strength and track of the day 6-7 storm.

#11 rainshadow

    Lone Member of Oct Fan Club

  • Meteorologist
  • 14,250 posts
  • Location:Mount Laurel, NJ

Posted 11 January 2008 - 05:03 PM

The EPO does relate to where the MJO is suppose to be.

#12 ElTacoman

  • Members
  • 6,256 posts
  • Location:Arvada, CO

Posted 11 January 2008 - 05:03 PM

View Postmadscientist, on Jan 11 2008, 02:52 PM, said:

I would think that negative EPOs are good for Colorado, am I correct?


If you like cold weather, negative EPOs can be good for anyone in the nation. It just means that the strong Pacific flow is shut down due to high pressure in the northeast Pacific. This allows cold airmasses to be able to drop down into the lower 48 much easier.

As far as snowfall goes, a -EPO is not necessarily good for CO. We do best when abundant moisture is being pumped into the Southwest and big storms form as they come out of the Rockies into the Plains.

#13 rainshadow

    Lone Member of Oct Fan Club

  • Meteorologist
  • 14,250 posts
  • Location:Mount Laurel, NJ

Posted 11 January 2008 - 05:07 PM

View PostStormchaserChuck, on Jan 11 2008, 04:53 PM, said:

I don't know if the NAO forecast will verify.. a lot of models have been trending toward more of a neutral/negative NAO in the medium range. A lot depends on the strength and track of the day 6-7 storm.


Chuck,

Not until this trend line breaks am I am believer in anything more than a transitory -nao. I posted in one of Wes's threads on how the Euro keeps on losing the Greenland block/ridge closer to forecast time. No matter it gets cold because of the Pacific.

Attached File  nao_ensm_diff.gif (9.81K)
Number of downloads: 1





1 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users