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Moderate la nina at our doorstep - Eastern US Weather Forums

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Moderate la nina at our doorstep


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#1 Tempest

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 01:38 PM

I didnt see any other threads on this so I will start one. The latest CPC numbers should most or all the nino regions cooling. I dont remember what nino 3 was but nino 1+2 cooled significantly again. And more importantly nino 3.4 fell to -.9C and nino 4 fell to -.4C meaning this thing is really getting going. I see no reason why we wont fall at least -.1 more making it "moderate" even if its not officially even established yet. Thoughts? Winter cancel for SE? Jk there... :arrowhead:

#2 40/70 Benchmark

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 01:45 PM

View PostTempest, on Sep 17 2007, 02:38 PM, said:

I didnt see any other threads on this so I will start one. The latest CPC numbers should most or all the nino regions cooling. I dont remember what nino 3 was but nino 1+2 cooled significantly again. And more importantly nino 3.4 fell to -.9C and nino 4 fell to -.4C meaning this thing is really getting going. I see no reason why we wont fall at least -.1 more making it "moderate" even if its not officially even established yet. Thoughts? Winter cancel for SE? Jk there... :arrowhead:

Well, ur sidekick KyWetter has jumped off the Nina bandwagon, you might wanna check out Ed Berry's latest blog.

#3 JAD5656

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 01:46 PM

View PostTempest, on Sep 17 2007, 01:38 PM, said:

I didnt see any other threads on this so I will start one. The latest CPC numbers should most or all the nino regions cooling. I dont remember what nino 3 was but nino 1+2 cooled significantly again. And more importantly nino 3.4 fell to -.9C and nino 4 fell to -.4C meaning this thing is really getting going. I see no reason why we wont fall at least -.1 more making it "moderate" even if its not officially even established yet. Thoughts? Winter cancel for SE? Jk there... :arrowhead:


Another viewpoint as well..

http://www.cdc.noaa....MEI/#discussion

#4 JamieO

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 01:48 PM

View PostTempest, on Sep 17 2007, 06:38 PM, said:

I didnt see any other threads on this so I will start one. The latest CPC numbers should most or all the nino regions cooling. I dont remember what nino 3 was but nino 1+2 cooled significantly again. And more importantly nino 3.4 fell to -.9C and nino 4 fell to -.4C meaning this thing is really getting going. I see no reason why we wont fall at least -.1 more making it "moderate" even if its not officially even established yet. Thoughts? Winter cancel for SE? Jk there... :arrowhead:

Tempest, this is the thread referred above (kywetter): http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...142176&st=0


Note in there Vawxman has a link that Scripps is saying the same thing.

JB is pretty adamant on a La Nina, though.

#5 40/70 Benchmark

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 01:55 PM

View PostJamieO, on Sep 17 2007, 02:48 PM, said:

Tempest, this is the thread referred above (kywetter): http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...142176&st=0
Note in there Vawxman has a link that Scripps is saying the same thing.

JB is pretty adamant on a La Nina, though.

Well that clinches it.

#6 rainshadow

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 02:03 PM

If last year's nino thoughts (no this is not a chop, just a fact that even forecasting the intensity of ninos/ninas is not easy) are any indication, I wouldn't rule out either a weak or moderate la nina at this point.

#7 40/70 Benchmark

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 02:08 PM

View Postrainshadow, on Sep 17 2007, 03:03 PM, said:

If last year's nino thoughts (no this is not a chop, just a fact that even forecasting the intensity of ninos/ninas is not easy) are any indication, I wouldn't rule out either a weak or moderate la nina at this point.

Neither would I, but nor I do I think that its time to start a thread declaring entry into mod Nina conditions, esp. considering that the CPC has ceratin guidlines of which we are still months away from meeting.

#8 zwyts

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 02:20 PM

I just went to my doorstep and all I found was a bum drinking MD 20/20 :blink:

#9 sarwx2.0

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 02:25 PM

View Postzwyts, on Sep 17 2007, 02:20 PM, said:

I just went to my doorstep and all I found was a bum drinking MD 20/20 :blink:


:lol:

Nina must be at the back door then....

#10 Jim Hughes

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 02:32 PM

Okay so such and such said this. So it's a given. I always love it when these organizations become experts in something that they have never been leaders in anyway. At least from the standpoint of long range calls. :axe:

#11 brainstorm

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 02:38 PM

View Post40/70 Benchmark, on Sep 17 2007, 02:45 PM, said:

Well, ur sidekick KyWetter has jumped off the Nina bandwagon, you might wanna check out Ed Berry's latest blog.

The numbers I am looking at indicate +PDO's setting up for winter. I have a feeling that any Nina will be weak and short-lived.

#12 sprite

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 02:43 PM

View Post40/70 Benchmark, on Sep 17 2007, 02:45 PM, said:

Well, ur sidekick KyWetter has jumped off the Nina bandwagon, you might wanna check out Ed Berry's latest blog.

No, I haven't jumped off the Nina bandwagon yet. The QBO is tanking to possibly record levels, the GLAAM remains sub -2 and is falling again, the SOI* is sky-high, and SOI is finally rising...not really signs of an emminent Nino anytime soon. Last of all, Scripps is the only model, out of 21 ENSO models, to be forecasting a Nino this winter.

#13 JamieO

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 03:03 PM

View Postzwyts, on Sep 17 2007, 07:20 PM, said:

I just went to my doorstep and all I found was a bum drinking MD 20/20 :blink:

What's the KA analog for that?

#14 Ji

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 03:25 PM

im not ready to write off winter yet. Its a bit too early. check back with me next week.

#15 PACNW_WX

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 04:53 PM

View Postbrainstorm, on Sep 17 2007, 12:38 PM, said:

The numbers I am looking at indicate +PDO's setting up for winter. I have a feeling that any Nina will be weak and short-lived.



:weenie:

#16 mitchnick

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 04:59 PM

Looks moderate to my weenie eyes:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data...t.9.17.2007.gif

#17 Logan11

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 05:02 PM

So what is the typical effect of a moderate La Nina in terms of the Winter in the Northeast? Does it necessarily mean mild and snowless? ...often El Ninos can mean mild if they are moderate to strong.

I see JB keeps trotting out 1954 and 1998 analogs with La Ninas and I can't recall the temperatures (obviously wouldn't recall '54), but it looks like Albany had sub par snowfall those years. Something like 37"and 44" inches respectively with normal being mid 60s.



View PostPACNW_WX, on Sep 17 2007, 05:53 PM, said:

:weenie:


#18 PACNW_WX

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 05:18 PM

View PostLogan11, on Sep 17 2007, 03:02 PM, said:

So what is the typical effect of a moderate La Nina in terms of the Winter in the Northeast? Does it necessarily mean mild and snowless? ...often El Ninos can mean mild if they are moderate to strong.

I see JB keeps trotting out 1954 and 1998 analogs with La Ninas and I can't recall the temperatures (obviously wouldn't recall '54), but it looks like Albany had sub par snowfall those years. Something like 37"and 44" inches respectively with normal being mid 60s.



La Ninas back east are entirely dependent on the NAO. Historically when the NAO is negative, weak or moderate La Ninas have been pretty good back there. In those cases, it's more of a North vs. South temperature gradient than East vs. West. Everywhere in the country north of 40 degrees can score with a Moderate Nina if the other indicies are half decent.

#19 brainstorm

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 05:28 PM

View Post40/70 Benchmark, on Sep 17 2007, 03:08 PM, said:

Neither would I, but nor I do I think that its time to start a thread declaring entry into mod Nina conditions, esp. considering that the CPC has ceratin guidlines of which we are still months away from meeting.

According to this CDC page on MEI ranks:

http://www.cdc.noaa....r/MEI/rank.html

the MEI would have to be ranked as one of the 12 lowest values on a bimonthly basis to be considered moderate.

The Aug-Sep value would have to be below -.659, and the Sep-Oct value below -.776 to be a moderate Nina. We're not that close.

#20 Tempest

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 05:30 PM

View Post40/70 Benchmark, on Sep 17 2007, 10:45 AM, said:

Well, ur sidekick KyWetter has jumped off the Nina bandwagon, you might wanna check out Ed Berry's latest blog.


Not my side kick, I dont side with anybody who doesnt like snow. :guitar:

View PostJamieO, on Sep 17 2007, 10:48 AM, said:

Tempest, this is the thread referred above (kywetter): http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?sh...142176&st=0
Note in there Vawxman has a link that Scripps is saying the same thing.

JB is pretty adamant on a La Nina, though.


Scripps model is rediculous. Its plainly obvious the atmosphere is madly pushing for la nina and the surface is finally responding. The two month average right now -.518 and assuming this month stays good and negative the tri monthly could be -.7 by the end of September. As for JB.... :rolleyes:

View Postbrainstorm, on Sep 17 2007, 11:38 AM, said:

The numbers I am looking at indicate +PDO's setting up for winter. I have a feeling that any Nina will be weak and short-lived.


The numbers you are looking at are wrong. Its negative now and becoming more so all the time.





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