[BeauDodson]

Slight risk of severe weather today across our region. Looks like the old line of storms is trying to die off while a new area is forming ahead of the line. Could be some isolated severe through this afternoon. There were several tornadoes yesterday across Missouri and Illinois.

KPAH Radar at 11 a.m.

http://blog.usawx.com/wp-content/uploads/image/sept7radarpah.gif

[BeauDodson]

New day one removes most of the slight risk. Still looks like isolated severe up and down the line - similiar to yesterday when they didn't have a risk for this region (and others that were hit).

http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/day1.gif


Tornado risk remains the same...

http://kamala.cod.edu/SPC/day1.tornado.gif

[BeauDodson]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif
Five Day Rainfall Forecast

[BeauDodson]

Excessive Rainfall Maps

http://www.hpc.ncep..../6hrqpfall.html

[BeauDodson]

SIGNIFICANT flooding rains across Missouri - continue this morning.

Amazing totals. Lot ol flash flood warnings have been issued.

Here are some radar rainfall totals...

http://www.beaudodson.com/images/September%20Images/sept8th10amrainfallsgf.png

http://www.beaudodson.com/images/September%20Images/sept8th10amrainfallpah.png

[BeauDodson]

5 Day Rainfall Totals...Predicted

http://www.beaudodson.com/images/September%20Images/sept8thrainfallpredictions.gif

[BeauDodson]

NWS in Springfield, MO has a special page concerning the issue...

http://www.crh.noaa....atherstorybrief

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/sgf/wx/File.png
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will occur thru Sunday as a slow moving cold front stalls over Southern Missouri. This front will interact with a very moist airmass and produce several periods of heavy rain which will lead to flash flooding. The heaviest rain is expected to fall along and south of a line from Lamar to Osage Beach. Widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are likely with localized higher amounts.

[BeauDodson]

Norman, Oklahoma

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhancedwx/fxc_Extended_Outlook.jpg

http://www.srh.noaa....anced.php?map=3

[BeauDodson]

A lot of this moisture is coming from/mixing in with the remnants of the hurricane that struck the Baja of California a few days ago.

Water Vapor shows the connection...

http://www.beaudodson.com/images/September%20Images/sept8thwatervapor1.gif

[ovweather]

So far, none of this rain is helping the really bad drought areas. My question is will it? Watching radar, the stuff over SE Missouri does not seem to be showing much eastward movement. Nothing is currently developing farther east in Kentucky or southern IN. I wish I could be more optimistic on our rainfall chances but radar does not lie. Another dry day with temps once again pushing 90 at noon.

Drought begets drought...

[BeauDodson]

ovweather, on Sep 8 2007, 11:32 AM, said:

So far, none of this rain is helping the really bad drought areas. My question is will it? Watching radar, the stuff over SE Missouri does not seem to be showing much eastward movement. Nothing is currently developing farther east in Kentucky or southern IN. I wish I could be more optimistic on our rainfall chances but radar does not lie. Another dry day with temps once again pushing 90 at noon.

Drought begets drought...

We have been watching this for days around here. HUGE areas of rain try to move in from Arkansas and Missouri but hit a wall. We have picked a little bit of rain though...finally. NOTHING like what they have been having in Missouri and Oklahoma. I just wish one of these large areas of rain would move into Kentucky. You are certainly right about drought feeding drought. That is the way it works. I just keep crossing my fingers that at least ONE of these large rain bands would move through Paducah.

[ovweather]

BeauDodson, on Sep 8 2007, 12:48 PM, said:

We have been watching this for days around here. HUGE areas of rain try to move in from Arkansas and Missouri but hit a wall. We have picked a little bit of rain though...finally. NOTHING like what they have been having in Missouri and Oklahoma. I just wish one of these large areas of rain would move into Kentucky. You are certainly right about drought feeding drought. That is the way it works. I just keep crossing my fingers that at least ONE of these large rain bands would move through Paducah.

Funny how things work. OK and southern MO do not need rain, but they get 3-8 inches anyway. The drought areas are hard pressed to get much more then a few sprinkles or a localized shower.

The models are at least showing some significant rainfall finally moving into the lower OV tonight and tomorrow although I have to wonder how much of this is model feedback errors? And do the models take into account the very dry ground conditions? The 12z NAM looks totally out to lunch so far as it showed widespread convection in western and central KY and southern IN through 18z this afternoon. Well, that time has come and there is very little. The GFS looks much better initially. Although at this point, probably better to forget the models and focus on reality - radars and satellite.

[BeauDodson]

RAINING here at my house! Finally a nice cell

http://www.paducahweather.net/loneoakcam.jpg

http://www.beaudodson.com/images/September%20Images/sept8thheavyrainpaducah215pm.png

[Madmaxweather]

Well it looks like some rain will get into my area in the next hour or so but one thing I have noticed with the models is they are pushing the heaviest rain south of the river. But south of us needs the rain more then we do right now.

[BeauDodson]

0.75" here in the last 30 minutes!

[ovweather]

How pathetic. What looked like a sure thing rain event for KY (or at least northern KY) looks to be a big league bust. It's amazing how the best rains just skirt west and north of the severe and extreme drought areas almost purposely trying to avoid the dryness. All day, thunderstorms develop just to the north and move northeast away from the area. Stuff to the west drys up as it moves this way. Can't win. :thumbsdown:

[NorEaster27]

had heavy rain for a few hours now in Ithaca, NY.

[Trent]

So far just a few sprinkles here. Still no major rain since mid-August.

[gustfront105]

:thumbsdown: Here in southern jasper county, on the northeast corner of Joplin mo , I had 6.25 inches of rainfall in my gauage after i dumped it at 8:00 pm on friday night . I know we needed a little an but good grief ! In less than 12 hours thats a hell of an amount . Guess i will squeegee ou tmr garage again and hope like hell there is no heaving on the foundation of my house in the next month.....

hope everyone has a good week ahead of em..

[Kokomo1]

I saw 3.22" this weekend at my home. Most of it came in a couple of hours on Saturday afternoon when I was getting soaked at the Purdue game.