[gkrangers]

turtlehurricane, on Aug 18 2007, 11:24 PM, said:

I agree, and to add, it doesn't necessarily have to become better organized. Environmental conditions are worsening as we speak, as the mountains of Hispaniola get closer. Maybe thats partly the reason for this weakening.

Entirely possible, tho we'll never know what is really causing it.

[DoctorHurricane2004]

turtle, no.

First, it is mildly irresponsible to be basing any conclusion that it is "weakening" based on one (remnant of) inner eyewall report. If anything, the inner eyewall wind speed SHOULD be lower than last time, considering it is collapsing. The thing that matters is the outer eyewall.

Oh...and Hispanola is clearly not affecting it right now.

[gil888]

turtlehurricane, on Aug 18 2007, 11:24 PM, said:

I agree, and to add, it doesn't necessarily have to become better organized. Environmental conditions are worsening as we speak, as the mountains of Hispaniola get closer. Maybe thats partly the reason for this weakening.

Um, 918 mb is not exactly weakening. Eyewall cycles happen over warm water in the Caribbean all the time. But really-- 918 is impressive. The list of storms below 920 mb is a short one, especially this early in the year. We'll see if this one challenges Allen's August SLP record as it nears Yucatan.

[Ian]

gkrangers, on Aug 18 2007, 11:07 PM, said:

I'm drinking Jamaican rum... :thumbsup:

http://www.jamaicatradeandinvest.org/images/web/Image/redstripe2.jpg

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't see why it so suprising that the wind speeds are weaker than pressure would indicate at the time the new eye wall is still fairly broad, it has nothing to do with Hispanola, wait for the damn thing to contract.

[capecod04]

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/6305428387.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

[gkrangers]

110KT FL SE EYEWALL

[BeauDodson]

Can someone post the top ten list of lowest pressure readings and include what time of the year the hurricane impacted the Atlantic Basin? I figure someone must have that handy. :) heh

[Cheeznado]

Went out to dinner- and now I see that if the storm misses Jamaica, it will be to the south. A miss would be good for the island, bad for chasers. Also, Josh and others that went to Cancun may have to rent a car and drive south, maybe to Belize :o.

Assuming that nothing weird happens and the storm goes back to a more NW track, the big model winner here...the much laughed at ECMWF! Yes, it may end up being too far south in the end, but compared to the GFDL.... :thumbsup:

[gkrangers]

BeauDodson, on Aug 18 2007, 11:31 PM, said:

Can someone post the top ten list of lowest pressure readings and include what time of the year the hurricane impacted the Atlantic Basin? I figure someone must have that handy. :) heh

Rank Hurricane Season Min. pressure
1 Wilma 2005 882 mbar (hPa)
2 Gilbert 1988 888 mbar (hPa)
3 "Labor Day" 1935 892 mbar (hPa)
4 Rita 2005 895 mbar (hPa)
5 Allen 1980 899 mbar (hPa)
6 Katrina 2005 902 mbar (hPa)
7 Camille 1969 905 mbar (hPa)
Mitch 1998 905 mbar (hPa)
9 Ivan 2004 910 mbar (hPa)
10 Janet 1955 914 mbar (hPa)

[Ian]

BeauDodson, on Aug 18 2007, 11:31 PM, said:

Can someone post the top ten list of lowest pressure readings and include what time of the year the hurricane impacted the Atlantic Basin? I figure someone must have that handy. :) heh

 Untitled_12.gif (12.95K)
Number of downloads: 0

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_notab...ntic_hurricanes

[DoctorHurricane2004]

Cheez,

Dean is already at the latitude of Belize. I highly doubt that he is going to continue due west at 270 degrees now. That doesn't even seem remotely plausible to me, imo. It seems the leftmost probably landfall area is the south central yucatan (I don't think there is a city there), all the way to the rightmost being, yes, still the western tip of cuba.

Trochoidal wobbles aren't everything.

[ORH_wxman]

zwyts, on Aug 18 2007, 11:28 PM, said:

wow that pressure drop map is almost identical to the mean pressure drop map of the deadliest canes in history

empty your mailbox.

I also think that samplesize might not be big enough. :scooter:

[gkrangers]

Ian, on Aug 18 2007, 11:35 PM, said:

Untitled_12.gif

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_notab...ntic_hurricanes

I WIN!!!

/buzzed

[turtlehurricane]

DoctorHurricane2004, on Aug 18 2007, 11:28 PM, said:

turtle, no.

First, it is mildly irresponsible to be basing any conclusion that it is "weakening" based on one (remnant of) inner eyewall report. If anything, the inner eyewall wind speed SHOULD be lower than last time, considering it is collapsing. The thing that matters is the outer eyewall.

Oh...and Hispanola is clearly not affecting it right now.

I disagree, I think it is affecting it based on what I see on satellite.

It could definitely still strengthen though. Its not close enough yet for full throttle weakening.

[gkrangers]

I wonder how many posts I accumulate during each major hurricane...lol. I bet I could post 500+ times on Dean by the time it's done.

[viking70]

DoctorHurricane2004, on Aug 18 2007, 11:35 PM, said:

Cheez,

Dean is already at the latitude of Belize. I highly doubt that he is going to continue due west at 270 degrees now. That doesn't even seem remotely plausible to me, imo. It seems the leftmost probably landfall area is the south central yucatan (I don't think there is a city there), all the way to the rightmost being, yes, still the western tip of cuba.

Trochoidal wobbles aren't everything.

What are Trochoidal wobbles? Thanks.

[Ian]

gkrangers, on Aug 18 2007, 11:38 PM, said:

I wonder how many posts I accumulate during each major hurricane...lol. I bet I could post 500+ times on Dean by the time it's done.

I'd say over 500... you've had 121 in this thread and 114 in yesterdays alone.

[gkrangers]

viking70, on Aug 18 2007, 11:39 PM, said:

What are Trochoidal wobbles? Thanks.

Basically the eye rotating around inside the general circulation of the hurricane. The wobbles you see are generally caused by this, and aren't indicative of the actual motion of the storm.

[Clark]

turtlehurricane, on Aug 18 2007, 11:38 PM, said:

I disagree, I think it is affecting it based on what I see on satellite.

It could definitely still strengthen though. Its not close enough yet for full throttle weakening.

What exactly do you see on satellite to say that Hispaniola is affecting it? How is it affecting it in any way that a normal eyewall cycle would not be doing so?

It is at the Haiti/DR border now and still chugging along on the same steering path as it has been on all day long. If it's going to be affected by the island, it better hurry up and do so.