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Hurricane Dean (04L) Tracking Thread #3 (8/18/07) 11 PM: 125 KT, 918 MB, W at 17 MPH. Disputes ahoy. ERC near complete. Rate Topic: -----

#961 User is offline   gkrangers 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:27 PM

View Postturtlehurricane, on Aug 18 2007, 11:24 PM, said:

I agree, and to add, it doesn't necessarily have to become better organized. Environmental conditions are worsening as we speak, as the mountains of Hispaniola get closer. Maybe thats partly the reason for this weakening.

Entirely possible, tho we'll never know what is really causing it.

#962 User is offline   DoctorHurricane2004 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:28 PM

turtle, no.

First, it is mildly irresponsible to be basing any conclusion that it is "weakening" based on one (remnant of) inner eyewall report. If anything, the inner eyewall wind speed SHOULD be lower than last time, considering it is collapsing. The thing that matters is the outer eyewall.

Oh...and Hispanola is clearly not affecting it right now.

#963 User is offline   gil888 


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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:28 PM

View Postturtlehurricane, on Aug 18 2007, 11:24 PM, said:

I agree, and to add, it doesn't necessarily have to become better organized. Environmental conditions are worsening as we speak, as the mountains of Hispaniola get closer. Maybe thats partly the reason for this weakening.


Um, 918 mb is not exactly weakening. Eyewall cycles happen over warm water in the Caribbean all the time. But really-- 918 is impressive. The list of storms below 920 mb is a short one, especially this early in the year. We'll see if this one challenges Allen's August SLP record as it nears Yucatan.

#964 User is offline   Ian 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:29 PM

View Postgkrangers, on Aug 18 2007, 11:07 PM, said:

I'm drinking Jamaican rum... :thumbsup:

http://www.jamaicatradeandinvest.org/images/web/Image/redstripe2.jpg

#965 User is offline   40/70 Benchmark 


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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:29 PM

I don't see why it so suprising that the wind speeds are weaker than pressure would indicate at the time the new eye wall is still fairly broad, it has nothing to do with Hispanola, wait for the damn thing to contract.

#966 User is offline   capecod04 


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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:30 PM

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/6305428387.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

#967 User is offline   gkrangers 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:30 PM

110KT FL SE EYEWALL

#968 User is offline   BeauDodson 


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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:31 PM

Can someone post the top ten list of lowest pressure readings and include what time of the year the hurricane impacted the Atlantic Basin? I figure someone must have that handy. :) heh

#969 User is offline   Cheeznado 


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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:32 PM

Went out to dinner- and now I see that if the storm misses Jamaica, it will be to the south. A miss would be good for the island, bad for chasers. Also, Josh and others that went to Cancun may have to rent a car and drive south, maybe to Belize :o.

Assuming that nothing weird happens and the storm goes back to a more NW track, the big model winner here...the much laughed at ECMWF! Yes, it may end up being too far south in the end, but compared to the GFDL.... :thumbsup:

#970 User is offline   gkrangers 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:33 PM

View PostBeauDodson, on Aug 18 2007, 11:31 PM, said:

Can someone post the top ten list of lowest pressure readings and include what time of the year the hurricane impacted the Atlantic Basin? I figure someone must have that handy. :) heh

Rank Hurricane Season Min. pressure
1 Wilma 2005 882 mbar (hPa)
2 Gilbert 1988 888 mbar (hPa)
3 "Labor Day" 1935 892 mbar (hPa)
4 Rita 2005 895 mbar (hPa)
5 Allen 1980 899 mbar (hPa)
6 Katrina 2005 902 mbar (hPa)
7 Camille 1969 905 mbar (hPa)
Mitch 1998 905 mbar (hPa)
9 Ivan 2004 910 mbar (hPa)
10 Janet 1955 914 mbar (hPa)

#971 User is offline   Ian 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:35 PM

View PostBeauDodson, on Aug 18 2007, 11:31 PM, said:

Can someone post the top ten list of lowest pressure readings and include what time of the year the hurricane impacted the Atlantic Basin? I figure someone must have that handy. :) heh

Attached File  Untitled_12.gif (12.95K)
Number of downloads: 0

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_notab...ntic_hurricanes

#972 User is offline   DoctorHurricane2004 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:35 PM

Cheez,

Dean is already at the latitude of Belize. I highly doubt that he is going to continue due west at 270 degrees now. That doesn't even seem remotely plausible to me, imo. It seems the leftmost probably landfall area is the south central yucatan (I don't think there is a city there), all the way to the rightmost being, yes, still the western tip of cuba.

Trochoidal wobbles aren't everything.

#973 User is offline   ORH_wxman 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:36 PM

View Postzwyts, on Aug 18 2007, 11:28 PM, said:

wow that pressure drop map is almost identical to the mean pressure drop map of the deadliest canes in history



empty your mailbox.

I also think that samplesize might not be big enough. :scooter:

#974 User is offline   gkrangers 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:36 PM

View PostIan, on Aug 18 2007, 11:35 PM, said:


I WIN!!!

/buzzed

#975 User is offline   turtlehurricane 


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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:38 PM

View PostDoctorHurricane2004, on Aug 18 2007, 11:28 PM, said:

turtle, no.

First, it is mildly irresponsible to be basing any conclusion that it is "weakening" based on one (remnant of) inner eyewall report. If anything, the inner eyewall wind speed SHOULD be lower than last time, considering it is collapsing. The thing that matters is the outer eyewall.

Oh...and Hispanola is clearly not affecting it right now.

I disagree, I think it is affecting it based on what I see on satellite.

It could definitely still strengthen though. Its not close enough yet for full throttle weakening.

#976 User is offline   gkrangers 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:38 PM

I wonder how many posts I accumulate during each major hurricane...lol. I bet I could post 500+ times on Dean by the time it's done.

#977 User is offline   viking70 


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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:39 PM

View PostDoctorHurricane2004, on Aug 18 2007, 11:35 PM, said:

Cheez,

Dean is already at the latitude of Belize. I highly doubt that he is going to continue due west at 270 degrees now. That doesn't even seem remotely plausible to me, imo. It seems the leftmost probably landfall area is the south central yucatan (I don't think there is a city there), all the way to the rightmost being, yes, still the western tip of cuba.

Trochoidal wobbles aren't everything.



What are Trochoidal wobbles? Thanks.

#978 User is offline   Ian 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:40 PM

View Postgkrangers, on Aug 18 2007, 11:38 PM, said:

I wonder how many posts I accumulate during each major hurricane...lol. I bet I could post 500+ times on Dean by the time it's done.

I'd say over 500... you've had 121 in this thread and 114 in yesterdays alone.

#979 User is offline   gkrangers 

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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:40 PM

View Postviking70, on Aug 18 2007, 11:39 PM, said:

What are Trochoidal wobbles? Thanks.

Basically the eye rotating around inside the general circulation of the hurricane. The wobbles you see are generally caused by this, and aren't indicative of the actual motion of the storm.

#980 User is offline   Clark 


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Posted 18 August 2007 - 10:40 PM

View Postturtlehurricane, on Aug 18 2007, 11:38 PM, said:

I disagree, I think it is affecting it based on what I see on satellite.

It could definitely still strengthen though. Its not close enough yet for full throttle weakening.


What exactly do you see on satellite to say that Hispaniola is affecting it? How is it affecting it in any way that a normal eyewall cycle would not be doing so?

It is at the Haiti/DR border now and still chugging along on the same steering path as it has been on all day long. If it's going to be affected by the island, it better hurry up and do so.

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