[HurricaneJosh]

Thu 16 Aug - 12:02 am PDT
Now that it's a 'cane, I can discuss this w/o seeming crazy.

This is going to be my official chase blog for Hurricane Dean. :sunglasses:

Of course, I've been thinking about this since it was an open wave (:D), but I didn't want to make a thread about it until it became a 'cane, because I didn't want to look too stupid. The setup looks great, but of course, a million things can go wrong-- so I'm not getting my hopes up. But Dean has the most chase potential of anything I've checked out since Wilma 2005.

The currrent situation: the last two NHC forecasts have the cyclone approaching the Yucatan Peninsula with winds of 115 kt (Cat 4) around late Monday or early Tuesday. Of course, I'm going to wait until Dean gets into the Caribbean-- and also until the environment is better sampled and reflected in the modeling-- before making any moves.

But in the meantime, I've been checking flights from L.A. to Cancun. If the forecast track were to hold perfectly (statistically unlikely, but at least a starting point), I'd probably fly out Saturday or Sunday. I like to leave plenty of time and arrive well before landfall when I chase. It's stressful enough without having to rush!

[DoctorHurricane2004]

Sweet now just add Jamaica to your territory, and I'll be happy

(watch it miss Cancun because of the models :P)


(ok seriously should go to bed, but this is addicting :( )

[Snow Wizard]

HurricaneJosh, on Aug 16 2007, 02:06 AM, said:

Thu 16 Aug - 12:02 am PDT
Now that it's a 'cane, I can discuss this w/o seeming crazy.

This is going to be my official chase blog for Hurricane Dean. :sunglasses:

Of course, I've been thinking about this since it was an open wave (:D), but I didn't want to make a thread about it until it became a 'cane, because I didn't want to look too stupid. The setup looks great, but of course, a million things can go wrong-- so I'm not getting my hopes up. But Dean has the most chase potential of anything I've checked out since Wilma 2005.

The currrent situation: the last two NHC forecasts have the cyclone approaching the Yucatan Peninsula with winds of 115 kt (Cat 4) around late Monday or early Tuesday. Of course, I'm going to wait until Dean gets into the Caribbean-- and also until the environment is better sampled and reflected in the modeling-- before making any moves.

But in the meantime, I've been checking flights from L.A. to Cancun. If the forecast track were to hold perfectly (statistically unlikely, but at least a starting point), I'd probably fly out Saturday or Sunday. I like to leave plenty of time and arrive well before landfall when I chase. It's stressful enough without having to rush!

How can you afford to chase these things whereever they are? Also...how do you explain it to your boss?

[sprite]

Snow Wizard, on Aug 16 2007, 04:41 AM, said:

How can you afford to chase these things whereever they are? Also...how do you explain it to your boss?

Josh is a multi-millionaire who owns a very successful advertising agency.

[HurricaneJosh]

Snow Wizard, on Aug 16 2007, 01:41 AM, said:

How can you afford to chase these things whereever they are? Also...how do you explain it to your boss?

Everyone spends money on vacations. Some people go on Mediterranean cruises or trips to Europe; I chase hurricanes. (My work takes me all over Europe, anyway.) The only difference is that I can't schedule my vacation time in advance-- like, I always know it'll probably happen sometime in August or September, but of course I don't know the exact dates until a few days before. :D

Re: the boss thing, I am the boss. I have a business partner and colleagues, but they're all cool and they understand. I "came out of the closet" to them all Re: my chasing habit a few years ago. I have no secrets. In fact, even my clients know. :sun:

KyWetter, on Aug 16 2007, 01:45 AM, said:

Josh is a multi-millionaire who owns a very successful advertising agency.

Unfortunately, as of right now only half of this is true. :D But I am working to change that.

[HurricaneJosh]

Thu 16 Aug - 02:00 am PDT
Destination: the Yucatan.

Back to chase planning!

The 5 am EDT advisory package just came out, and-- wow-- look at the consistency! This is the third advisory in a row that brings a Cat-4 'cane into the Yucatan.

The Discussion shows surprising confidence Re: the track thru the five-day period: "THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE DAYS."

I think I need to at least make Cancun hotel and car reservations in the morning, when I get up-- as a precaution.

 deantrack.gif (38.49K)
Number of downloads: 36

:pepsi:

[sprite]

HurricaneJosh, on Aug 16 2007, 04:54 AM, said:

Unfortunately, as of right now only half of this is true. :D But I am working to change that.

:lol:

[weathafella]

Good luck and keep blogging!

[ValleyPA]

Buena suerte! I'm looking forward to the chase!

[hooralph]

Head for Playa Del Carmen.

[VAwxman]

And for something completely different... the 6Z GFDL. :o

[The Dude]

HurricaneJosh, on Aug 16 2007, 04:57 AM, said:

I think I need to at least make Cancun hotel and car reservations in the morning, when I get up-- as a precaution.

I somehow suspect there is not going to be a mass run on hotel rooms there for next week.

[Austin]

VAwxman, on Aug 16 2007, 07:44 AM, said:

And for something completely different... the 6Z GFDL. :o

Central GOM!

[BIrving]

VAwxman, on Aug 16 2007, 07:44 AM, said:

And for something completely different... the 6Z GFDL. :o

Remember when those models handling Rita exiting the FLA Keys in '05 and the grave error ( aside from the gfs which was way further north) of blasting away at S texas Corpus Christi to Brownsville (even N Mexico)... I have a sneaking suspicion that this thing has a trick or two up it's sleeve. Whether it's something as off -the-wall as the gfdl, probably not, but a few miles can make a giant difference, as we know, over the N Yucatan

[Lauruski]

Josh, am answering your questions from last nights thread regarding Casa Sirena:

First, I have known the owner for years. He has relocated and refurbished (!) the building. He rode out Emily in it and loved it. I went down to stay there, but they were just finishing it. So we got put up in a motel. But we spent a lot of time visiting there.

From the roof, you have a great view of both the Caribbean and the bay looking back at Cancun. The building is three story cement block. I think you are about 30 to 40 feet (?) above sea level.

Safety? I would trust the owner. If he leaves, don't go. But if I wanted to chase a storm, this is where I would go. If the forecast looks to dire, catch a boat back to the mainland. Otherwise, you would be in right out in the storm!

I would be happy to give more details via email or phone. I could email Google Earth image, too.

[Fishmn]

If I were you Josh I'd keep the French Quarter in mind. Perhaps one of this newly rebuilt Casinos in Buloxi.

[HK Gullywhomper]

I'm not a Mod, nor do I play one on TV, but I was wondering whether it would make sense to have a separate sub-forum for storm chasing blogs instead of just individual threads that could get lost amidst the volume of content here. Between hurricane season, tornado season, and winter storm season, you've pretty much got 80% of the year covered.

[Strat747]

Josh,

I would not be surprised one bit after the G-IV flight mission and the info obtained is ingested into the models that the track could sway quite a bit. Tonight’s 0z run should begin to really nail down a more confident track.

AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV
WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z
ANALYSIS CYCLE.

If in fact the Yucatan is looking more and more likely -

Being a map freak you may already have these maps. If not they would be good to have. The coastal roadway system is not as straight foreword as driving on the PCH.

ITM Yucatan Peninsula
ITM Belize

PS - If there are any significant changes after the NOAA flight, I'll get you that overview of the upper Texas coast and Louisiana..

[turtlehurricane]

I would wait for the G4 to start any real planning.

[gkrangers]

Yeah..keep in mind the track bends slightly more northward from Day 4 - Day 5 in the 11AM advisory.