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McFarland Signature? - Eastern US Weather Forums

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McFarland Signature?


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#1 Louwxman

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 11:11 AM

Has anyone heard of the term McFarland (sp?) signature when describing weather patterns? A client mentioned it to me this morning and said he was told it could happen next week. My first assumption is it has something to do with significant cold, but that is one I have not heard of. Anyone have any info?

#2 usedtobe

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 11:24 AM

View PostLouwxman, on Jan 29 2007, 11:11 AM, said:

Has anyone heard of the term McFarland (sp?) signature when describing weather patterns? A client mentioned it to me this morning and said he was told it could happen next week. My first assumption is it has something to do with significant cold, but that is one I have not heard of. Anyone have any info?


Louis, I've also never heard of it. Tried a googe search and didn't find anything on it.

#3 GO-nad

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 11:26 AM

A three year old AFD

LONG TERM...
BAJA UPPER LOW LOOKS TO BE SLOWER IN COMING OUT ACRS W TX SAT AS
UPSTREAM KICKER DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL SAT AM. LIFT/INSTABILITY
ASSOCD WITH UPPER TROF IS BEST IN MID/UPPER LEVELS. OMEGA FIELDS ARE
ORGANIZED IN 5H-3H LAYER AS MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES BROAD AREA OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE COMING ACRS WITH SYSTEM.7H-5H LR/S STILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCD WITH THIS SYSTEM IS POOR
AND IN PART EXPECT THIS IS WHY MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW. WE STILL
LIKE SCT POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM BEING SIGNIFICANTLY FORCED IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS. FOLLOWING TROF NEXT 30HRS OR SO WILL BE WINDY...
VERY WINDY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DAVIS/GDP MTNS. MSL PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTER THAN 4MB/100NM AND PERSISTENT 40KT 7H WINDS WILL KEEP
DOWNSLOPE WINDS GOING BEFORE MODIFIED PACIFIC FRONT PASSES MON AM.
COOLER ON MON STILL LOOKS GOOD. WX INTO MID WEEK STILL HAS LARGE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARD TO ARCTIC AIR. RECENT GFS LOOKS LIKE
COLD AIR MAY BE EVEN FARTHER W THAN SEEN YESTERDAY WITH FAVORABLE
SHRTWV OMEGA BLOCK WITH LONGWAVE RIDGE THRU ALASKA...AT LEAST HINT OF A MCFARLAND SIGNATURE. STILL GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF ON COLD AIR UNTIL
THUR...SINCE MODELS DON/T HANDLE ARCTIC AIR WELL ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR
COULD BE MUCH EARLIER ON WED.

http://www.arh.noaa.gov/arhdata/archive/FX...MAF_04023200524

Intersting though. Several other sites reference it, but don't go on to say what it is. I even saw it on an NFL message board where someone was hoping for one to sweep through prior to gametime to help the Bears

#4 usedtobe

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 11:29 AM

View PostLouwxman, on Jan 29 2007, 11:11 AM, said:

Has anyone heard of the term McFarland (sp?) signature when describing weather patterns? A client mentioned it to me this morning and said he was told it could happen next week. My first assumption is it has something to do with significant cold, but that is one I have not heard of. Anyone have any info?


I found this on the net

AND IT MAY BE INSTRUCTIVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE CURRENT H5 PATTERN BASED ON ANALYSIS DONE BY MCFARLAND (1976). THE MAIN H5 FEATURES TO BE LOOKING FOR. ...

I couldn't find the afd that went with it but it sounds like it is a 500h pattern that is cold for the conus and was documented by McFarland in 1976.

#5 donsutherland1

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 11:30 AM

Perhaps such a "signature" has to do with the potential for a freeze in the lower Rio Grande Valley in Texas?

http://md1.csa.com/partners/viewrecord.php...p;setcookie=yes

#6 donsutherland1

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 11:32 AM

You beat me to it, Wes ;)

#7 usedtobe

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 11:36 AM

View Postdonsutherland1, on Jan 29 2007, 11:30 AM, said:

Perhaps such a "signature" has to do with the potential for a freeze in the lower Rio Grande Valley in Texas?

http://md1.csa.com/partners/viewrecord.php...p;setcookie=yes


Don, your info is more complete...the reference to rio grande makes sense as I got the info from the Brownsville nws site.

#8 nin9inch9nails

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 11:40 AM

http://www.srh.noaa....chmemo/tm88.htm

#9 donsutherland1

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 11:41 AM

Terrific link, Trent.

#10 HurricaneAgnes

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 11:54 AM

View Postnin9inch9nails, on Jan 29 2007, 11:40 AM, said:



That's a great link and paper. Since that research was done, that area of TX has had some bad freezes in 1983 and later in 1989 (the latter I think wiping out the citrus once more). Seems a little easier to forecast the "blue northers" with all the satellites and modeling now, but good to see a method to look for some signals.

#11 usedtobe

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 12:01 PM

View Postnin9inch9nails, on Jan 29 2007, 11:40 AM, said:



Trent, great find!

#12 nin9inch9nails

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 12:10 PM

View Postdonsutherland1, on Jan 29 2007, 11:41 AM, said:

Terrific link, Trent.

View Postusedtobe, on Jan 29 2007, 12:01 PM, said:


Trent, great find!




Thanks,

I ran across the terminology several years ago and had to dust off the link again.....Hart (aka Trent..LOL)

#13 usedtobe

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 12:10 PM

View Postnin9inch9nails, on Jan 29 2007, 12:10 PM, said:

Thanks,

I ran across the terminology several years ago and had to dust off the link again.....Hart (aka Trent..LOL)


Hart, I knew that. Sorry.

#14 AlaninKY

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 01:03 PM

View Postnin9inch9nails, on Jan 29 2007, 11:40 AM, said:


Trent that is a great find as I never had heard before today about Marshall J. McFarland and his paper on Useful Relationships Between 500 mb Features and Major Freeze Events in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas.

Seem like I learn something new all the time on Eastern :thumbsup:

#15 Louwxman

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Posted 29 January 2007 - 02:26 PM

Trent, Wes, Don:
That was exactly what I needed. I learn something everyday. Thanks for the help.





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