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Pittsburgh local Mets Winter Forecasts - Eastern US Weather Forums

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Pittsburgh local Mets Winter Forecasts


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#1 RitualOfTheTrout

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Posted 03 November 2006 - 11:27 AM

Just watched Jeff Verszyla's winter weather forecast and it pretty much goes along with what alot of Mets on the board are saying. You can go to to http://kdka.com/vide...dka.dayport.com and watch the video feed from last nights report on this.

* November looks to be relatively normal with an average snowfall of around 3 inches and near normal temperatures.
* December may have a near normal snowfall of about 7 inches with slightly below normal temperatures especially late in the month.
* January will likely bring above average snowfall totals of around 18 inches with significantly colder than normal temperatures.
* The February forecast calls for frequent snowfalls totaling an above average of 14 inches with much colder than normal temperatures.
* March comes in like a lion with snow fall totaling a couple inches greater than average but the temperatures should level off near normal by the 31st.


He also hints at the possibility of another big storm possible end of feb or early march, a pretty interesting watch.

Tonight, Joe Denardo and WPXI release outooks, Ill be interested to see how similar they are to what iv been reading here.

**Edit, I added a better link to the video and breif points for those that dont feel like watching the video.

#2 RiemannSun

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Posted 03 November 2006 - 11:39 AM

I wonder who's going to lead the pack at WPXI this year for the winter forecast. The new chief hasn't arrived yet--at least I don't think so--so it was left up to Krista/Scott/Kevin.

Btw, I am quite surprised by WPXI's new chief. He actually has credentials! Imagine that. Too bad they'll pretty much go to waste on the uber-dumbed-down forecasts there.

Keep us posted ... for those who are out of the area!

#3 RitualOfTheTrout

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Posted 03 November 2006 - 11:44 AM

View PostRiemannSun, on Nov 3 2006, 11:39 AM, said:

I wonder who's going to lead the pack at WPXI this year for the winter forecast. The new chief hasn't arrived yet--at least I don't think so--so it was left up to Krista/Scott/Kevin.

Btw, I am quite surprised by WPXI's new chief. He actually has credentials! Imagine that. Too bad they'll pretty much go to waste on the uber-dumbed-down forecasts there.

Keep us posted ... for those who are out of the area!


I was also wondering about WPXI myself, Ill be interested to keep a record and see who does the best this year.

Ill post any other relavent info from the other 2 stations tonite or tomorrow afternoon.

#4 RiemannSun

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Posted 03 November 2006 - 11:46 AM

Wow...I am surprised at Verszyla's level of detail. It should be commended, IMO. He actually mentioned an analog (1992-1993...interesting!) and showed some graphics that at least explain what the pattern might look like.

DeNardo has been pretty good the past few winters...ever since 03-04. I wish he would go into more depth like Verszyla, but I doubt he'll shake from tradition and do that. He usually just shows numbers on slides. Oh well... the numbers will tell the bottom line.

#5 RitualOfTheTrout

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Posted 03 November 2006 - 01:20 PM

View PostRiemannSun, on Nov 3 2006, 11:46 AM, said:

Wow...I am surprised at Verszyla's level of detail. It should be commended, IMO. He actually mentioned an analog (1992-1993...interesting!) and showed some graphics that at least explain what the pattern might look like.

DeNardo has been pretty good the past few winters...ever since 03-04. I wish he would go into more depth like Verszyla, but I doubt he'll shake from tradition and do that. He usually just shows numbers on slides. Oh well... the numbers will tell the bottom line.


Yes, that is one reason why I felt compelled to share the info here. He does a good job of showing a graphic from last winter explaining why it was milder and less snowfall then shows a graphic for what he expects this year and why.

I do remember DeNardo being pretty acurate last year, mainly because I was disapointed with his outlook. (Not due to quality but because it went against my wishes :P )

#6 steelcity08

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Posted 03 November 2006 - 03:08 PM

I've been waiting for these and their finnally coming. Yea he said the pattern looks very simular to 1992-1993, haven't been hearing much about that but oh well. I'll take 13 inches over the average especially since last year we got 7 under.

#7 Meatwad

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Posted 03 November 2006 - 06:44 PM

:snowman:


Looks sweet to me

#8 RiemannSun

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Posted 03 November 2006 - 07:49 PM

Joe DeNardo's winter forecast was released around 5:45pm today. I heard it via telephone, so I did not see his graphics, but I remember certain parts:

Temperatures should be some percentage below normal...December below normal and January well below normal...Feb starts to warm up w/ above normal temperatures.

Snowfall should be around 48"
Nov: 6"
Dec: 10"
Jan: 11"
Feb: 11"
Mar: 10"
Apr: Trace

I'm waiting for them to post it online so I can see all the specifics rather than relying on memory... they're taking a while (probably because they no longer have the weather producer, Mike Brookins).

#9 wxw

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Posted 03 November 2006 - 08:43 PM

He did ok last winter, calling for > normal temps. Called for cold Dec, check, warm January, check (although no one forecasted the warmth we ended up with). Pretty impressed with this guy. Good news on his cold December call!!

Last winter:

http://www.thepittsburghchannel.com/news/5...?subid=10101261

View PostRiemannSun, on Nov 3 2006, 07:49 PM, said:

Joe DeNardo's winter forecast was released around 5:45pm today. I heard it via telephone, so I did not see his graphics, but I remember certain parts:

Temperatures should be some percentage below normal...December below normal and January well below normal...Feb starts to warm up w/ above normal temperatures.

Snowfall should be around 48"
Nov: 6"
Dec: 10"
Jan: 11"
Feb: 11"
Mar: 10"
Apr: Trace

I'm waiting for them to post it online so I can see all the specifics rather than relying on memory... they're taking a while (probably because they no longer have the weather producer, Mike Brookins).


#10 steelcity08

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Posted 04 November 2006 - 05:12 AM

Denardo predicted 18.7 avg temp in jan. 10 Degrees colder then normal.

#11 RiemannSun

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Posted 05 November 2006 - 12:11 PM

bump

Any Pittsburgh-area posters around who watched the forecast and remember other specifics? WTAE is taking forever to post it online.

#12 RitualOfTheTrout

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Posted 05 November 2006 - 02:19 PM

I watched WPXI's it was probably the worst presentation of the 3. Brief summary is its similar to the other two, but warmer and drier. They didn't really give a monthly snow fall breakdown either.

Ill try to get all the data together tomorrow for a nice little comparison of the 3 with links to all the video feeds.

#13 steelcity08

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Posted 05 November 2006 - 10:14 PM

Denardo called for 48 inches. -7 degrees overall for the winter, 14 degrees colder then last year!

Nov. 6in
Dec. 7in
Jan. 11in
Feb. 13in
Mar. 10in

#14 steelcity08

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Posted 05 November 2006 - 10:16 PM

WPXI was pretty bad, seemed like a last minute type of thing. Also they called for the least amount of snow. :thumbsdown:

#15 RitualOfTheTrout

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Posted 06 November 2006 - 01:44 PM

Ok Iv gathered up the data and put it all in a nice presentable form. Here is this upcoming winters breakdown by forecaster:

Posted Image

You can check an HTML version here which also displays 04-05 and 05-06 and the observed stats for forecast verification purposes. Check it out here: http://www.angelfire.com/pa/Raluminat/Wint...nterOutlook.htm

Or you can download the Excel worksheet file for modification purposes here:
http://www.angelfire.com/pa/Raluminat/Wint...nterOutlook.xls

Also, Im assuming that Joe Denardos forecast may not be released to the web in any format at all. It is supposed to air tonite (11-6-06) on the 11pm news for one last chance to catch it. Im going to try to DVR it so I can get the rest of the info from his forecast but if anyone else can and then post the details that would be great too!

Finally, I was unable to get some data for the past 2 years. Id like to find it to give us a better look at how things really went in comparison to the forecasts so if anybody can find it that would also help.

#16 mdclimo

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Posted 06 November 2006 - 01:53 PM

View Poststeelcity08, on Nov 4 2006, 05:12 AM, said:

Denardo predicted 18.7 avg temp in jan. 10 Degrees colder then normal.

:huh:
That may be one of the most radical forecasts I've ever come across. Who predicts -10 for a month ?

#17 RiemannSun

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Posted 06 November 2006 - 07:27 PM

RitualOfTheTrout...THANK YOU for trying to get us the info. WTAE is being unusually anal with the outlook this year. That station has me so upset...the management seems flat out nasty. According to the Weather Watch 4 blog,

"Joe's Winter Weather Forecast
So many people have asked for it because they missed it on Friday night.

I just checked with my news director and we are going to re-air it ONE TIME ONLY tonight (Monday) at 11pm during our newscast. So set your DVR if you can't watch it. I'm told it's the only time it will be on again. Hope this helps and we'll see you at 11 o'clock!

Until next time...
posted by Don Schwenneker at 7:49 AM"

It was posted on the web the past several years. They did wait for it to air on TV, but then it went up soon afterwards. It's obvious that they're replaying it during their third-place 11pm news to try to bump up the ratings in Nov. sweeps. I doubt one night will mean much, but whatever.

I just don't know what's going on over there. This is the station that thinks Wendy Bell is the be-all and end-all in terms of anchoring, and is more worried about Raychel Ray and the Steelers than any sort of real news.

I believe the way management was/is heading led Joe to retire. Rumor has it the ND started to step into the wx center too many times and Joe didn't like/wasn't used to- that.

#18 RiemannSun

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Posted 06 November 2006 - 07:32 PM

View Poststeelcity08, on Nov 5 2006, 10:14 PM, said:

Denardo called for 48 inches. -7 degrees overall for the winter, 14 degrees colder then last year!

Nov. 6in
Dec. 7in
Jan. 11in
Feb. 13in
Mar. 10in

I thought he had the temperature departure at -7.something percent (not degrees). That's the way he usually presents the temps.

#19 steelcity08

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Posted 06 November 2006 - 09:27 PM

I'm sorry, your right riemann. Although that would be nice.

#20 WxMidwest

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Posted 06 November 2006 - 09:39 PM

View PostRitualOfTheTrout, on Nov 6 2006, 01:44 PM, said:

Ok Iv gathered up the data and put it all in a nice presentable form. Here is this upcoming winters breakdown by forecaster:

Posted Image

You can check an HTML version here which also displays 04-05 and 05-06 and the observed stats for forecast verification purposes. Check it out here: http://www.angelfire.com/pa/Raluminat/Wint...nterOutlook.htm

Or you can download the Excel worksheet file for modification purposes here:
http://www.angelfire.com/pa/Raluminat/Wint...nterOutlook.xls

Also, Im assuming that Joe Denardos forecast may not be released to the web in any format at all. It is supposed to air tonite (11-6-06) on the 11pm news for one last chance to catch it. Im going to try to DVR it so I can get the rest of the info from his forecast but if anyone else can and then post the details that would be great too!

Finally, I was unable to get some data for the past 2 years. Id like to find it to give us a better look at how things really went in comparison to the forecasts so if anybody can find it that would also help.


oh snap, scott harbaugh, met him when he was at the Rockford Station here,,,





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