[Flexo]

I suppose I should keep an eye on 97L. The last thing we need is another hurricane in the GOM. After Rita last year, I can't take another possible threat. Luckily, there is plenty of time to watch this system...

Thanks for your thoughts!

[ezweather]

DT,

I totally agree with your post. My gut tells me that this sytem will be a biggy. You see how much realastate it covers and its not even a depression. Whats more interesting, we are getting closer to Labor Day weekend. But we have some time to watch this one. Definitely some alarming analyses, but yes, satellite imagery just gets better. Even the hurricane guidance has been very consistent in suggesting it will develop and become now a major hurricane.

We'll certainly be very busy.....

DT-wxrisk, on Aug 23 2006, 11:49 PM, said:

folks

On the IPR radio show I talked about this lead wave on the ITCZ which has undergone significant development tUESDAY.... becoming a threat and a more serious one than DEBBY...
the cite from CIRA that uses several parameters to forecast TC development on Monday was at 8% above climno in that part of the s central Atlantic

http://rammb.cira.co...arm/genesis.asp


if I had to guess RIGHT NOW... ASSUMING 97L develops which seems to be a good bet.... the system will track WNW and develop once it corss 65 west LONG and clars the north coast of S America.....

next if we assume the global MR models are correct by day 6 and 7 a HUGE 500 mb ridge will be centered over the SE states...

This is a dangerous development..... the postion of that HIGH due N of the the expected track of 97L into the northwest caribbean would provide an ideal environment -- never mind that the western Carib is an ideal climo as it is-- and never divergence aloft --- ventiliation...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/f144.gif
speculating even longer term it would SEEM that the central and western Gulf be more at risk ..... given the 500 MB maps at day 7 8 9 on the 12z Euro.... which shows the ridge over or just off the GA coast thus protecting the eastern gulf to some degree... of course we are not that sure of our facts as My good friend S Holmes would say and the HIGH could slide further east by then

[BeauDodson]

Have not been interested on anything other than this system. It seems to me that this is the one to watch carefully. Had several people ask me today about the stuff way out there - told them to watch this one.

Hopefully we don't get anything nasty down there. Enjoying the calm :)

[HKY_WX]

http://www.ssd.noaa....2/loop-avn.html

Pretty major blow up of convection in the last few frames on the southern side of the wave. There's a lot of moist air to the WNW of this thing and very little dry air intrusions to speak of. Not to mention the insane TCHP eddies all over the central caribbean and GOM. Could be the one to watch.

[Jack O.]

Nice post DT, my concern this year has been for the edges, this one has a chance. Unfortunately, no matter where it goes (if it develops like it could) land is going to get in the way. Just a matter of whose.

[Bostonseminole]

latest CMC, scaryhttp://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2006082400/slp24.png

[Flexo]

Geeez.... At least that is the CMC model. It's not that great with the tropics.

[~Floydbuster]

While the storm may not be a TD per se, I think winds are probably 25-30 kts in the system already, and I would guess we will have a TD in 12 hours or so. My early thoughts...

[HurricaneJosh]

Wow. Very interesting stuff. Thanks to DT and ezweather for your interesting commentary. 97L is the system to watch as we near the climatological peak of the 'cane season, and it looks like a very interesting week shaping up.

[Typhoon_Tip]

~Floydbuster, on Aug 24 2006, 12:58 AM, said:

While the storm may not be a TD per se, I think winds are probably 25-30 kts in the system already, and I would guess we will have a TD in 12 hours or so. My early thoughts...

~Floydbuster,
...I believe if the system is that structured by 24 hours it will enter a period of explosive generation and be substantially stronger than your prognostics at that time...

Additionally to why I say so is because the stream line analysis shows a fairly strong anticyclonic curl and I believe if the system develops as expected, most global guidance will likely then have to wind up wrong for not seeing its presence and thus correctly computing it's effects on the surrounding environment.

[Flexo]

A nice convection burst going on right now. This blob looks very good on satellite. Don't know if there is a surface circulation yet, but this will most likely be TD 5 or Ernesto very soon...

[~Floydbuster]

Typhoon_Tip, on Aug 24 2006, 01:22 AM, said:

~Floydbuster,
...I believe if the system is that structured by 24 hours it will enter a period of explosive generation and be substantially stronger than your prognostics at that time...

Additionally to why I say so is because the stream line analysis shows a fairly strong anticyclonic curl and I believe if the system develops as expected, most global guidance will likely then have to wind up wrong for not seeing its presence and thus correctly computing it's effects on the surrounding environment.

Ok, so I say 100 KT by 120 HRS...you say?? Any guess?

[MallowTheCloud]

I say I'm not going to guess on strength, 'cause I've never been even close with my strength forecasts. I have occasionally been close with my path forecasts... but for now I'm giving a huge error cone:

http://img222.imageshack.us/img222/4316/predictionaf8.jpg

[DoctorHurricane2004]

If the CMC is even close to right, I will scream.

Stay. Away. From. Houston.

*sigh

[~Floydbuster]

For some reason, I get the vibe of this one heading towards the middle LA Coast.

[DoctorHurricane2004]

Well thank you for your enlightening insight.

:axesmiley:

I believe (not a "feeling"...more of an "analyzation") that this will take a Dennis and Charley like track to the Western Caribbean...beyond that, there is way too much uncertainty to say either "curve northward near Yucatan towards NGOM" or "straight into Mexico"

[~Floydbuster]

DoctorHurricane2004, on Aug 24 2006, 01:56 AM, said:

Well thank you for your enlightening insight.

:axesmiley:

I believe (not a "feeling"...more of an "analyzation") that this will take a Dennis and Charley like track to the Western Caribbean...beyond that, there is way too much uncertainty to say either "curve northward near Yucatan towards NGOM" or "straight into Mexico"

It's just...I know Texas is gonna get it someday...they had tons of big hurricanes in the past...but for some reason it just seems like storms need a perfectly alligned ridge that allows them to move westward continuously, while not going straight into Mexico.

[~Floydbuster]

DT-wxrisk, on Aug 24 2006, 02:13 AM, said:

try to aviod useing your FEELINGS when making a forecast
unless of course you are giving A forecast to the Oprah winfry show

I'm thinking the ridge could start to shift eastward by next week, and if the storm is strong...then LA would be at risk...but who knows at this point.