[Cheeznado]

Ok, now that we can pretty much bank on Debby being a fish storm, how about the more imminent threat to NOAM- 97L?

 GOES17152006235vZVXYb.jpg (77.45K)
Number of downloads: 8

It is quite far south, and since it does not appear to have any if much of a LLC, climatology tells us that it will be slow to develop until it gets well into the central/western Caribbean. One factor in the intensity equation is the TUTT that is forecast to form in the Carribean in the next several days:

 avn_trop_200wind_120.gif (78.14K)
Number of downloads: 30

The key with this feature is will it stay far enough west of our wave to keep from shearing it? right now the answer may be yes, but it is a close call.

The SEF (Canadian) model has been pretty bullish on some sort of development:

 478_50.gif (173.87K)
Number of downloads: 27

So I think we can say that there is sat least some chance of it becoming a TD or storm in the slightly longer term.

So if it does develop- what will its track be? The GFS ensembles, SEF and NOGAPS say that the 500mb ridge will hold firm over the southern U.S. and the GOM:

 m500z_f120_nhsm.gif (48.33K)
Number of downloads: 7

The only outlier is the ECMWF which develops a weakness in the western Gulf by 144 hours. Therefore the most likely trajectory will be WNW into the Yucutan or even Belize/Guatemala, then (if it survives) towards Mexico or southern TX.

[wxmx]

Couldn't agree more with you. Was going to issue some sort of analysis on this feature, but saw yours and I agree 100%, I think the threat for the US right now is only for S Tx in the long range, it is more of a Belize/Yucatan & possibly NE Mexico threat.

[HurricaneJosh]

Cheeznado, thanks for the interesting analysis! I see that you are thinking the track will stay pretty far to the S of the 12Z model guidance as well.

[mempho]

SHIPS has this thing at Cat 2...could be very interesting...I think this will be a TD before bedtime.

[lilgunzn]

LoOKING BETTER AND BETTER EACH FRAME! The storms arent as scattered as earlier and coming all together pretty well. TD by tonight or early mourning

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[HurricaneJosh]

lilgunzn, on Aug 23 2006, 02:58 PM, said:

LoOKING BETTER AND BETTER EACH FRAME! The storms arent as scattered as earlier and coming all together pretty well. TD by tonight or early mourning.

:thumbsupsmileyanim:

[wxmx]

In this animation you can see the shear associated to the TUTT Cheeznado is talking about, this will be the key player. It looks like it will move slowly west, and my assessment is that it will probably move a little too slow compared to whatever forms out of 97L...may be a very close call.

[wxmx]

I was going to do a graphical analysis on Carib and GOM conditions for this entity, but I have no time right now. The main points are:

1. Next 36 hours system will have very favorable upper level conditions in the Eastern Caribbean. Current shear in that zone will decrease from now on.

2. Central carib. may have strong (destructive) shear, specially near the islands, so a southern route will be somewhat more favorable (at least 200 miles south of the big islands).

3. TUTT that is progged to create this shear will move very slowly, probably to the west, so W Carib is not safe from this.

4. OTOH, GOM conditions will become splendid after 72 hrs. Deep ridge, with associated E-W flow in all levels for what looks like at least 48 hours (120 hrs timeframe from now). If a well organized entity (vertically stacked) gets in, expect a big BOOM! SW GOM is the favored area. There are still many things that can vary, but I'm moderately confident that shear wont be a factor, nor dry air, and probably ll convergence and ul divergence will be at a prime time for development. Land interaction is the main concern here. But for this 2 & 3 must be overcome.

5. I favor a southern route through the carib (13 N, 65W ->15 N, 75W -> 17.5 N, 82.5 W -> 19.5 N, 90 W). Models mostly show mid level ridging thru all the caribbean basin, and deep ridging after 72 hrs in the GOM to at least 120 hrs. Even further south can happen if ridging is strong enough, then it will probably be Belize bound.

6. Now, if the ULL associated to the TUTT from 2 & 3 moves slightly faster to the SW, then we may have a nice ventilation valve for our system.


In short, too many IFs, but the key are points 2 & 3, as I have stated before.

[HurricaneJosh]

wxmx, on Aug 23 2006, 06:51 PM, said:

I was going to do a graphical analysis on Carib and GOM conditions for this entity, but I have no time right now. The main points are:

1. Next 36 hours system will have very favorable upper level conditions in the Eastern Caribbean. Current shear in that zone will decrease from now on.

2. Central carib. may have strong (destructive) shear, specially near the islands, so a southern route will be somewhat more favorable (at least 200 miles south of the big islands).

3. TUTT that is progged to create this shear will move very slowly, probably to the west, so W Carib is not safe from this.

4. OTOH, GOM conditions will become splendid after 72 hrs. Deep ridge, with associated E-W flow in all levels for what looks like at least 48 hours (120 hrs timeframe from now). If a well organized entity (vertically stacked) gets in, expect a big BOOM! SW GOM is the favored area. There are still many things that can vary, but I'm moderately confident that shear wont be a factor, nor dry air, and probably ll convergence and ul divergence will be at a prime time for development. Land interaction is the main concern here. But for this 2 & 3 must be overcome.

5. I favor a southern route through the carib (13 N, 65W ->15 N, 75W -> 17.5 N, 82.5 W -> 19.5 N, 90 W). Models mostly show mid level ridging thru all the caribbean basin, and deep ridging after 72 hrs in the GOM to at least 120 hrs. Even further south can happen if ridging is strong enough, then it will probably be Belize bound.

6. Now, if the ULL associated to the TUTT from 2 & 3 moves slightly faster to the SW, then we may have a nice ventilation valve for our system.
In short, too many IFs, but the key are points 2 & 3, as I have stated before.

Hey wxmx, thanks for the cool insights. Point 4: :) Point 5: :(

[Typhoon_Tip]

lilgunzn, on Aug 23 2006, 02:58 PM, said:

LoOKING BETTER AND BETTER EACH FRAME! The storms arent as scattered as earlier and coming all together pretty well. TD by tonight or early mourning

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

May actually do one of those rareties where it leaps into 30-35kts as it coalesces... i.e, powdered TS just add water.

[Strat747]

Good stuff Cheeznado...

Hopefully point 5 plays out, and on a limited basis.

Sorry Josh...The GOM'ers truly need a break this year....;)

[Bostonseminole]

I could not find a GDFL run 97L 12Z, is this still a threat?

[Flexo]

Bostonseminole, on Aug 23 2006, 06:57 PM, said:

I could not find a GDFL run 97L 12Z, is this still a threat?

You can see the 18z GFDL run on this map:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

[Bostonseminole]

Flexo, on Aug 23 2006, 08:02 PM, said:

You can see the 18z GFDL run on this map:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

thanks

[Cheeznado]

Interesting last set of model runs- I still think that the track will be farther south than what these runs show, but it does look like the chance of it running WNW right into Central America is less than before. Maybe it can thread the needle and go through the Yucutan Channel, like what the ECMWF has. If so, not good news for the western/central GOM, and gas prices...fill up now :o

[rainstorm]

http://www.esl.lsu.e...op_lant4col.gif

great pic of both systems. debby up and out, and 97L getting better organized

[turtlehurricane]

Cheeznado, on Aug 23 2006, 08:19 PM, said:

Interesting last set of model runs- I still think that the track will be farther south than what these runs show, but it does look like the chance of it running WNW right into Central America is less than before. Maybe it can thread the needle and go through the Yucutan Channel, like what the ECMWF has. If so, not good news for the western/central GOM, and gas prices...fill up now :o

And so begins another long week of watching a storm.

I think this will likely be declared tomorrow, it has a very good structure.

[lilgunzn]

The GFDL makes this into a major hurricane in the carribean

[lilgunzn]

107kts

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfdl/2006082318-invest97l/slp19.png

[Flexo]

Interesting. Almost a cat 3 hurricane. It will be interesting to see if this system really does strengthen that much... I guess this is why the GFDL has this taking a more northerly track, because the model develops this into a strong hurricane.