[Heidi the Horrible]

We keep waiting for the monster hurricane season to hit but keep in mind that 85% of major (>cat 3) 'canes strike after Aug 13.

Cumulative percent of Major hurricanes that hit the USA....

30-Jun 2%
15-Jul 3%
31-Jul 6%
15-Aug 18%
31-Aug 35%
15-Sep 57%
30-Sep 82%
15-Oct 95%
31-Oct 100%


Midpoint of the season is approximately Sept 4 in the Gulf and Sept 14 in the Atlantic. The Atlantic Coast landfall storms clearly have a later climo.

[Harry]

I think a few people have forgotten this thanks to last years crazy season.

Very good reminder.

[BIrving]

DT-wxrisk, on Aug 17 2006, 11:03 AM, said:

sorry folks I disagree with the ideas sexpressed here by met tech Harry and HTH

the issue is the hurricane forecasts for 2006 which was way too high. I said so in June and still do... Maybe someone was gong lower than my 14 named TC... but I dont know of any.

either way the issue is the rash of gloom and doom hurricane season forecasts that were amde.... which seem to have been influneced IMO on last year .

Bad forecasts are like bad generals -- always fighting the last war not the current one

What are you talking about? HTH is certainly not talking about a # of named storms, read more closely. Heidi is talking about major hurricanes, not named storms. even if there's one named storm and it's an Andrew, it's doom and gloom. You can clearly see that most major hurricanes hitting the USA occur after AUg 15th, that's the only issue in this thread that you should be addressing.

[Heidi the Horrible]

BIrving, on Aug 17 2006, 11:15 AM, said:

What are you talking about? HTH is certainly not talking about a # of named storms, read more closely. Heidi is talking about major hurricanes, not named storms. even if there's one named storm and it's an Andrew, it's doom and gloom. You can clearly see that most major hurricanes hitting the USA occur after AUg 15th, that's the only issue in this thread that you should be addressing.

Thanks. My post only addresses climatology, not a forecast of any kind.

BTW, we're down to 81% of hurricane season left.

[Harry]

Heidi the Horrible, on Aug 17 2006, 02:41 PM, said:

Thanks. My post only addresses climatology, not a forecast of any kind.

BTW, we're down to 81% of hurricane season left.

Thats what i had thought as well. Not sure of what Dave is talking about. :huh:

[BeauDodson]

It would be funny if we had a record low season - :)

[nin9inch9nails]

Here's a phrase NHC has been cutting and pasting into the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook a lot this season.......



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

[wxmann_91]

nin9inch9nails, on Aug 18 2006, 07:33 AM, said:

Here's a phrase NHC has been cutting and pasting into the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook a lot this season.......



ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

Even if they have 1000 disturbances and 10 storms out, they always write that at the end of a TWO. :huh: